Today, the world is suffering from a new version of the domino effect, marked by the spread of instability rather than of communism. The world is much more interconnected than 60 years ago, and from energy prices to AI-generated deepfakes to flows of people, the speed of transfer is viral. Yet in place of Cold War paranoia about knock-on effects, there is complacency. The war in Iran exemplifies the dangers.
The consequences of the war were never going to be confined within Iran’s borders, yet the shock absorbers have not been put in place to mitigate the damage. The immediate impact of the war in Iran is regional, but the danger is global.
I have just seen this for myself in Lebanon and Syria, visiting people displaced by the conflict and talking to government ministers and diplomatic representatives. Last year, these countries started a long process to rebuild. The former finally established a credible government and set out to build a new political settlement. The latter unseated a hated dictator and pledged a welcome for all Syrians.
Lebanon is the most urgent case. International neglect has compounded national division. There is popular anger in all directions—at Hezbollah for escalating conflict, at Israel for occupation of Lebanese land, at the government for its lack of agency, and at the international system for inaction.
Economic growth that last year tallied 5% has gone into reverse. Cash payments to Lebanon’s poorest ($145 for a family of five) do not come close to covering the cost of the basics for a month. A nurse working for one of our partners told me in Beirut, “It is really hard to have a future here. It’s just way too hard to plan.”
For the ceasefire to be effective, there must be a humanitarian lane through the Straits of Hormuz. This needs to liberate the humanitarian supplies trapped in Dubai and also allow fertilizer supplies—30% of the global total—which are critical to food production. The IRC has calculated that June is the month when a “ food security time-bomb” will begin to explode, as weak harvests resulting from stalled fertilizer deliveries plunge millions of people into extreme hunger.
New research from the Center for Global Development shows the clear link between aid cuts and conflict. Within the last year, conflict and conflict-related deaths have risen 5%. Part of the solution must be to restore aid cuts that have devastated the most basic elements of the social safety net, and ally social support to small-scale business development. In Syria and Lebanon, the cuts to IRC programs alone in the last year have been worth over $10 million. These cuts are the incubators of the next conflict.
I was told by a civil society activist in Damascus: “We want a future for our kids. We don’t want blood.” That won’t happen by accident. The domino effect is alive and well today. It is negative and destructive, and we need to act on it urgently.
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