In the case of Iran, there Trump goes again.
But no one should have been surprised by Trump’s flip-flopping. In our book, Trump’s Ten Commandments, we presciently and repeatedly predicted exactly this outcome, because it fits perfectly with Trump’s long-established patterns of behavior. As we argue in Trump’s Ten Commandments, regardless of whether you like him, loathe him, or want to look away, Trump is the most consequential person alive today, and to anticipate his actions, one must understand how he thinks and why he does what he does.
Trump’s second commandment is to start negotiations with a punch to the face. In the case of Iran, this meant a threat to wipe out civilian infrastructure and that a "whole civilization" will die, "never to be brought back again.”
It’s part of the classic Trump negotiation playbook. Instead of building trust incrementally, Trump starts every negotiation by punching you in the face. In his view, it’s escalate to de-escalate; by seizing the initiative, he can maximize his leverage right off the bat, or so his thinking goes.
The Trump market
Trump is the most business and markets-attuned President ever. He often views financial markets as a real-time barometer of success. For weeks, Trump successfully managed market conditions by escalating on Friday or Saturday and then de-escalating on Monday, creating early week rallies that could last through the week. But the luster wore off as market participants grew wise to Trump’s way, and realized a disconnect between his rhetoric and his actions.
Commandment number seven is that the world is made up of winners and losers. In this worldview, flips are common.
Trump sees his flip from listening to Iran hawks such as Senator Lindsey Graham to empowering Iran doves such as JD Vance, as a feature, not a bug.
Rewriting history through the sleeper effect
By relentlessly repeating his own version of events with absolute certainty, Trump attempts to rewrite reality. Through sheer volume and repetition, his assertions are eventually accepted as facts by his followers, regardless of their actual veracity.
It was always clear that no matter the outcome, Trump would find some pretext to declare victory, as he always does, and relentless repeat that narrative. In repeating the same narrative of triumph after triumph over and over again, strategic disappointments such as the failure to remove Iran’s 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, or the fact Iran retains significant ballistic missile and offensive capabilities, and no substantive changes to Iran’s theocratic regime, fall by the wayside. It is paradoxical that critics and supporters of Donald Trump alike are so often caught flat-footed by Trump’s ostensibly abrupt reversals, when the groundwork for those reversals are often being laid in plain sight, for all to see—if they know what signs to look for. Trump’s Ten Commandments reveals that Trump’s Iran ceasefire was anything but surprising and mirror his career-long instincts across politics and business, war, and peace.
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