Having too much talent is a “problem” every coach or team would love to have. In the salary-cap era of pro sports, however, it can become the type of problem no one wants to deal with.
The suddenly surging Denver Nuggets will face such a problem after this season, whenever it comes to an end. When the free-agency period begins, numerous teams will be interested in Nuggets restricted free agent Peyton Watson.
Of course, Denver would love to keep the player they drafted in 2022 and have developed into a standout – when he’s healthy. Wrapped around his two stints on the injured list this season, Watson has shown a vastly improved offensive game to go with his already stout defense. If his balky hamstring is healthy by then, he’s most certainly going to be a big part of the Nuggets’ playoff rotation this postseason.
However, he won’t be a starter. The suddenly impressive and important Cam Johnson will be.
Watson has played in 54 games this season, averaging 14.6 points, almost five rebounds, just over two assists, and just better than a block per. He’s also shooting just over 49% from the field and a tick better than 41% from-three point land. All these numbers are career bests. He’s only 23 years old and it’s a safe bet that his best years are ahead of him.
But the Nuggets’ other 6’8” forward, Johnson, is healthy and has been a very big part of Denver’s current nine-game winning streak. He’s the player Denver acquired from the Brooklyn Nets in the trade that sent standout Michael Porter, Jr. (and his massive contract) in the other direction. The 30-year-old forward got off to a slow start in Denver, and suffered a knee injury just before Christmas that caused him to miss 23 games. But over the last six weeks, he’s been exactly what the Nuggets’ brass thought he’d be, and then some. He was huge in the second half of the epic overtime win over San Antonio, and hit more key shots in the improbable comeback overtime win over Portland on Monday night.
Johnson is under contract for next season at a whopping $23 million – the final year of a four-year, $94.5 million contract he signed before he was traded to Denver. That’s not working to his advantage right now as rumors swirl about his future in Denver.
The dilemma facing the Nuggets’ front office is that they can’t pay Watson the big bucks he’s going to be offered by other teams (like the Los Angeles Lakers, to name just one likely suitor) and stay under the “second apron” of the salary cap. No NBA teams want to venture into “second apron” territory.
So as we speculated in this space back in early February, the Nuggets are going to have to choose which 6’8″ forward they want to keep most. In early February, it certainly seemed like the younger Watson would be the natural choice. National media still thinks it is. Reports are that Johnson will be traded and that Watson will be a long-term Nugget.
But would that be the best decision?
Think about the pressurized three from the top of the key that Johnson knocked down late in the San Antonio game. Would Nuggets Nation have preferred that it was Watson who had taken that shot… or the dozen more just like it?
It all comes down to this: With the Nikola Jokić championship window getting narrower each year (the big man is now 31 years old), Denver can either keep a veteran who has one year left on his contract – and who they know can deliver in the clutch come the postseason – or they can bet on a 23-year-old with great upside who they believe can become a great and consistent player, even after Joker and Jamal Murray have retired.
It’s not as easy a decision as some are making it out to be. Then again, when you’re a championship-caliber organization, these kinds of decisions never are.
Strike 2: Watson or Johnson? There’s no easy choice for Nuggets brass Mile High Sports.
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