With just eight teams remaining in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League, now feels an ideal time to check in on the Opta supercomputer’s predictions for the remainder of the competition. Here are the results from the latest 10,000 season simulations.
The UEFA Champions League quarter-finals kick off this week, with the four first-leg matches taking place over Tuesday and Wednesday, before the teams meet again in the second leg next week.
The Opta supercomputer has been hard at work, assigning win probabilities to every match as it simulates the remainder of the Champions League season 10,000 times.
Arsenal are still deemed the most likely winners in 2025-26, despite a disappointing fortnight for the Premier League leaders.
The Gunners had sights on a historic quadruple, but a League Cup final defeat to Manchester City on 22 March was followed by a shock FA Cup exit at the hands of Championship side Southampton at the quarter-final stage on Saturday.
Mikel Arteta will hope his side can refocus and win both the Champions League and Premier League, but they will have to make it past a tricky Sporting CP in the quarters of the UCL first.
The north London club are the still number one in the Opta Power Rankings, while they have been dominant in the Champions League this season, winning nine and drawing one of their 10 matches.
They won the Champions League this season in over a quarter of the current 10,000 Opta supercomputer simulations (27.7%), making them the favourites ahead of Bayern Munich (20.9%).
The German club’s chance of glory is hindered by being in the tougher half of the draw, however.
Bayern face Real Madrid in the quarter-final, with the winner of that tie facing the prospect of meeting either Liverpool or reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain in the semis.
The supercomputer calculates a strong chance both Arsenal and Barcelona will meet in the semi-finals, with Hansi Flick’s side the second-highest favourites of the eight remaining teams to progress past the quarter-final stage (68.0%).
Real Madrid are the fifth favourites, which will come as a surprise to many. Before knocking out Man City in the last round, Madrid won the 2025-26 UCL in just 1.9% of the supercomputer’s simulations – that has now risen to 8.3% ahead of the quarter-finals.
As illustrious as Real Madrid’s history is in this competition, their form this season hasn’t been exceptional overall. Saturday’s 2-1 defeat at Mallorca was their third loss in their last six La Liga games, and they look to have now squandered the Spanish top-flight title, trailing rivals Barcelona by seven points with eight games left to play.
Madrid not only take on free-scoring Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals, but face the prospect of either PSG or Liverpool in the semis, and then most probably Arsenal or Barcelona in the final. That’s far from a simple task.
*All prediction data accurate as of 6 April 2026.
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UEFA Champions League Predictions: The Opta Supercomputer’s 2025-26 Projections Ahead of Quarter-Finals Opta Analyst.
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