Bayern are the favourites with the Opta supercomputer ahead of their visit to Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday. Look ahead to the game at the Bernabéu with our Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich prediction and preview.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich: Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer has Bayern Munich as the slight favourites for this match, giving them a win probability of 42.7% to Real Madrid’s 33.2%. Real Madrid (22nd appearance) and Bayern (24th) have reached the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League more than any other side. Harry Kane is the only English player ever to score 10-plus goals in consecutive European Cup/Champions League campaigns.Álvaro Arbeloa will hope to join some esteemed company when Real Madrid host Bayern Munich for the first leg of a mouth-watering Champions League quarter-final tie at the Bernabéu on Tuesday.
His Real Madrid side dished out a comprehensive 5-1 aggregate victory over Manchester City in the last 16 to set up a huge last-eight clash with familiar foes Bayern, who routed Atalanta 10-2 over two legs.
Under Arbeloa’s leadership, Madrid – who lost 2-1 to Mallorca at the weekend to fall seven points adrift of Barcelona in La Liga – have won all four of their knockout-stage games this season.
It means the Spaniard could become just the third manager to win his first five knockout matches in the competition, after Hansi Flick (five with Bayern in 2019-20), and Luis Enrique (five in 2014-15 with Barcelona – both of whom went on to win the tournament in those seasons.
However, Vincent Kompany’s Bayern side are not one of the competition’s favourites for no reason.
Only in 2019-20 (3.9) and 1972-73 (3.7) have Bayern averaged more goals in a European Cup/Champions League campaign than they have this season (3.2). They have already scored more goals this season under Kompany (32 in 10 games) than they managed in his first campaign at the helm in 2024-25 (31 in 14 games).
Madrid (22nd appearance) and Bayern (24th) have reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League more than any other side. The Spanish giants have the best record at this stage, progressing to the semi-finals on 17 occasions, while the German side have been eliminated at this point more than anyone else (10).
Moreover, Madrid (309) and Bayern (248) are the two sides with the most wins in European Cup/Champions League history. Among teams with 50-plus games played, they are also the two sides with the best win percentages, and they are remarkably close: Madrid (60.23% – 309/513) and Bayern (60.19% – 248/412).
Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane will hope to be the difference-makers for their respective teams in this tie. France ace Mbappe has averaged a goal every 56 minutes for Madrid in the Champions League this season (13 goals in nine games). Of players with 10-plus goals in a single edition, only Erling Haaland in 2019-20 has ever done so while maintaining a better minutes per goal ratio (55).
Kane, meanwhile, is the only English player ever to score 10-plus goals in consecutive European Cup/Champions League campaigns (11 in 2024-25, 10 in 2025-26) and has scored more goals in the competition than any other player since joining Bayern (29 in 34 games).
Madrid are contending with a few injury issues for this clash, the most significant of which is the continued absence of goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois with an adductor injury. Dani Ceballos and Ferland Mendy are also unavailable, while Rodrygo is a long-term absentee.
Kane was absent for Bayern as the Bundesliga leaders scored a dramatic last-gasp goal to beat Freiburg 3-2 on Saturday, but there is confidence the England captain will be fit for this one.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Head-to-Head
Bayern are actually winless in their previous nine games against Madrid, drawing two and losing the other seven.
They have not gone 10-plus matches without a win against an opponent in all competitions since a 12-game run against Werder Bremen between 1988 and 1993.
This fixture is already the most-played contest in major European competition history. All 28 of the meetings between the two teams have been in the European Cup/Champions League, with 26 of those taking place in the knockout stages.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Prediction
Bayern’s recent record against Madrid might leave a fair bit to be desired, but the Opta supercomputer still rates them as the slight favourites for this first-leg tie with a win probability of 42.7%.
By contrast, Madrid are given a 33.2% chance of taking a first-leg lead to Munich, while the draw is rated as a 24.1% shot.
In terms of the competition overall, Bayern have a 64.5% chance of making the semi-finals, and a 20.9% probability of being crowned champions (second only to Arsenal).
Madrid defied the predictions to fly past City, though, and still retain a 35.5% shot at making the last four. However, the supercomputer rates their chances of winning the tournament at only 8.3%.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Predicted Lineups
Real Madrid: Andriy Lunin, Álvaro Carreras, Dean Huijsen, Antonio Rüdiger, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Arda Güler, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Thiago Pitarch, Federico Valverde, Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé
Head coach: Álvaro Arbeloa
Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer, Konrad Laimer, Jonathan Tah, Dayot Upamecano, Josip Stanišić, Aleksandar Pavlović, Joshua Kimmich, Luis Díaz, Serge Gnabry, Michael Olise, Harry Kane
Head coach: Vincent Kompany
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off in Spain on Tuesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Familiar Foes Lock Horns in Heavyweight Champions League Quarter-Final Opta Analyst.
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