We provide the Opta supercomputer’s UEFA Champions League match predictions for each of the 2025-26 quarter-final first legs.
The Champions League quarter-finals; this is when the competition feels like it starts to really come into its own.
Eight teams remain and the majority of them have pretty realistic hopes of going all the way, but some mammoth ties await.
Ahead of this week’s first legs, we’ve powered up the Opta supercomputer to run 10,000 simulations of each match, giving us an idea of who’s best placed to be in the ascendancy ahead of the return games next week.
So, without any further ado…
Tuesday 7 April
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich
If there’s any tie that feels particularly fitting for the latter stages of the UEFA Champions League, it’s Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich.
This is the most-played fixture in major European competition history, with all 28 of their meetings coming in the European Cup/Champions League and 26 of them confined to the knockout stages.
There’s a sense of unpredictability about the outcome for this tie as well, because although Bayern are winless in nine against Madrid, Vincent Kompany’s men are a force to be reckoned with.
Only in 2019-20 (3.9) and 1972-73 (3.7) have Bayern averaged more goals per game in a European Cup/UEFA Champions League campaign than they have this season (3.2). Their 32 goals in total (10 games) is already more than they managed in 2024-25 (31, 14 games).
Nevertheless, if Bayern don’t leave the Bernabéu with a win on Tuesday, that will take them to 10 matches without a win against Madrid in all competitions. It’d be their worst run against a specific team since failing to beat Werder Bremen in 12 successive matches between 1988 and 1993.
It wouldn’t exactly be a shock. After all, Madrid have the best record of all teams at this stage of the Champions League, progressing from 17 of their 22 quarter-finals.
However, the Opta supercomputer is backing Bayern to return home with an advantage, beating Madrid in their own backyard in 42.7% of the 10,000 pre-game simulations; Los Blancos were victorious on Tuesday in 33.2% of the sims.
Sporting CP vs Arsenal
Part of the reason for the Opta supercomputer fancying Arsenal so strongly to go all the way in the Champions League is down to their relatively favourable draw.
After dealing with Bayer Leverkusen fairly comfortably, they are expected to see off Sporting CP as well.
Sporting showed real character in their comeback against Bodø/Glimt in the last 16, however, and Arsenal have never won away from home against Portuguese opposition in the knockout stages of European competition.
So, while most will feel Arsenal should get past Sporting, Tuesday’s trip to Lisbon could be a test.
For instance, Rui Borges’ men have won all five of their home games in the UEFA Champions League this season, the longest home winning streak by a Portuguese side in the competition since Porto in December 1999 (6).
Arsenal’s record at this stage of the competition isn’t exactly brilliant either. They’ve been eliminated from five of their eight Champions League quarter-finals, though they did eliminate Real Madrid at this stage last season. As such, they’re looking to reach the semi-finals in consecutive campaigns for the first time.
And despite Sporting’s impressive home record, Arsenal are backed by the Opta supercomputer to take a lead into the second leg, doing so in 53.1% of the simulations. Sporting earned a first-leg win in 22.5%.
Wednesday 8 April
Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid
The Opta supercomputer’s most confident pick for the quarter-final first legs is Barcelona, who beat Atlético Madrid at Camp Nou in 59.2% of the simulations. Diego Simeone’s side claimed an away win in just 20.9%.
None of this is massively surprising, however.
Although Atlético actually eliminated Barcelona in their only two previous Champions League knockout ties, the most recent was in 2015-16, so it’s probably not that relevant.
More relevant is arguably the fact Barcelona are unbeaten in their last 25 games against Atlético Madrid at the Camp Nou in all competitions (W17 D8), last losing to them at home in February 2006. That’ll give them a psychological edge.
Also, Atlético have never won a Champions League away match against another Spanish team, losing four of the five they have played (D1).
The two sides only met on Saturday in La Liga, with Barcelona coming from a goal down to defeat Atlético 2-1 the Metropolitano Stadium.
Marcus Rashford and Robert Lewandowski scored the goals for the league leaders, after Giuliano Simeone opened the scoring. Barcelona were helped by Atlético going down to 10 men just before half-time, however, with Nico Gonzalez dismissed.
This Barcelona side does give their opposition chances, however, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 13 Champions League games, which is already their longest ever run without a shutout in major European competition.
Atlético will cling to that hope. If they can remain within touching distance ahead of the second leg, they will surely believe this somewhat erratic Barcelona side can be put under some pressure.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Liverpool
Ordinarily, you’d probably assume PSG were sick of the sight of Premier League clubs given how often they’ve faced English sides since the start of last season, but actually their record in these games is pretty good.
They’ve progressed from all four of their Champions League knockout ties against English teams over the past 14 months; among them was a last-16 duel with Liverpool last term.
Back then, Liverpool may well have been en route to the Premier League title, but they were deservedly eliminated by PSG. The Reds averaged just 38.6% possession and had 14 fewer shots on target than the Parisians across the two legs (4 for, 18 against); that is their biggest negative shot-on-target differential in a Champions League knockout tie on record (since 2003-04).
It’s fair to suggest Liverpool have been a considerably less impressive outfit this season as well, though this stage of the competition has proven treacherous for defending champions in recent years.
Four of the last five holders have been eliminated in the quarter-finals (Bayern Munich 2020-21, Chelsea 2021-22, Manchester City 2023-24 and Real Madrid 2024-25), with Real Madrid in 2022-23 the one exception as they reached the semis.
Either way, the Opta supercomputer expects Liverpool to have an uphill battle after the first leg, with PSG taking a lead to Anfield in 53.2% of the 10,000 sims; Liverpool were victorious in Paris 24.3% of the time.
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UEFA Champions League: Quarter-Final First-Leg Predictions Opta Analyst.
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