We look ahead to Saturday’s FA Cup quarter-final tie at the Etihad Stadium with our Man City vs Liverpool prediction and preview. Will Pep Guardiola’s team get another trip to Wembley?
Man City vs Liverpool: The Key Stats
Manchester City are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to progress to the FA Cup semi-finals, winning this game inside 90 minutes 51.1% of the time. This will be the seventh FA Cup tie between Man City and Liverpool. Liverpool have progressed from 17 of their last 19 FA Cup quarter-final ties, although they lost 4-3 to Manchester United in their most recent in 2023-24.Manchester City might be trailing Arsenal by nine points in the Premier League, but Pep Guardiola’s team got one over on the Gunners before the international break.
Man City were deserved victors in the EFL Cup final, with Nico O’Reilly’s double capping a 2-0 win. And, having clinched the first major trophy on offer this season, Guardiola’s men will now be eager to book an immediate return to Wembley Stadium.
Liverpool stand in their way, though, in an intriguing FA Cup quarter-final tie at the Etihad Stadium.
In years gone by, Man City vs Liverpool has been English football’s go-to rivalry, and while the stakes are perhaps not quite as high now as they were in the Jürgen Klopp era, these teams still know how to serve up a cracker.
There was drama aplenty back in February, when City launched a late comeback to win 2-1 at Anfield.
Since then, City have not been able to build momentum in the title race, while outgoing Premier League champions Liverpool come into this game on the back of a 2-1 defeat to Brighton and Hove Albion last time out.
Liverpool, unlike City, have a UEFA Champions League quarter-final tie to look forward to, though whether Arne Slot will be relishing a clash with holders Paris Saint-Germain is another question.
However, Liverpool have progressed from 17 of their last 19 FA Cup quarter-final ties, though they lost 4-3 to Manchester United in their most recent in 2023-24.
The Reds have not been eliminated from back-to-back FA Cup quarter-final appearances since 1967-68/1969-70 under Bill Shankly, and this competition is, realistically, their best chance of silverware this term.
Liverpool won 3-1 at Wolves in the fifth round, but they have not won two away games against Premier League opponents within a single FA Cup campaign since 2005-06, when they won at Portsmouth in the fourth round and Birmingham City in the quarter-finals.
City, meanwhile, have won each of their last 31 FA Cup matches outside of semi-finals and finals since losing to Wigan in the 2017-18 fifth round.
They are looking to reach the semi-finals for the eighth successive season. Their run of seven straight appearances in the last four is already a competition record.
City have won each of their last 17 home matches in the FA Cup, and victory here would make this the outright longest home winning run by any side in the competition proper, surpassing Clapham Rovers’ 17 wins from December 1873 to February 1881.
Liverpool have won this famous trophy on eight occasions, with City lifting it seven times.
Two of City’s triumphs have come under Guardiola, in 2019 and 2023, with the latter forming part of their treble. Liverpool last won the FA Cup in 2022, when they beat Chelsea on penalties.
Saturday’s contest, of course, marks Liverpool’s first game since Mohamed Salah confirmed his impending departure from the club.
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1 week ago David SegarSalah has scored in each of his last three FA Cup appearances, including in a quarter-final against Manchester United in 2023-24.
The last player to score in four consecutive FA Cup appearances for Liverpool was Emile Heskey in 2000-01 – whose run included a goal against Manchester City in the fifth round.
This will be Salah’s 25th and final game against City as a Liverpool player. He has played more times against them than any other player during his nine-year stay at Anfield.
Salah has only recorded more goal involvements against Man Utd (22) than he has against City (21 – 13 goals, eight assists).
Salah missed Liverpool’s defeat to Brighton due to injury, but Slot expects him to be fit to feature here, although this match is likely to come too early for Alexander Isak, who is just back in training following his long injury lay-off. The Reds’ first-choice goalkeeper, Alisson, remains sidelined.
But Salah will not be the only forward looking to make a big impact. Erling Haaland, who netted the winner for City at Anfield a couple of months ago, has scored in each of his last three home games against Liverpool in all competitions.
The only Premier League players (since 1992-93) to score in 4+ consecutive home appearances against the Reds are Chris Sutton (four from 1994 to 1996) and Sergio Agüero (five from 2013 to 2017).
Man City vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
This will be the seventh FA Cup tie between City and Liverpool.
City progressed from the first two after replays in 1955-56 and 1972-73, but the Reds have since won each of the last four, most recently in the 2021-22 semi-finals.
Guardiola’s team have already completed a Premier League double over Liverpool this season, and could win three successive meetings with the Reds in all competitions for the first time since March 1937 (four).
The last side to beat Liverpool three times in a single campaign were West Ham in 2015-16.
Man City vs Liverpool Prediction
City are given the edge by our model, which has run 10,000 pre-match data-led simulations.
In 51.1% of those sims, City won the game inside 90 minutes. Liverpool claimed victory in 24.1%. There is a 24.8% chance of penalties being required to settle the contest after a draw.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday at Wembley, here is the Opta Power Ranking for each side.
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Man City vs Liverpool Prediction: Wembley Trip Up for Grabs in FA Cup Quarter-Final Opta Analyst.
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