Democrats running in California’s 48th District Congressional race jumped into the field with the aim of unseating high-profile Republican incumbent Rep. Darrell Issa.
At the last minute, he dropped out of the race last month and left a wide-open field that suddenly needed to recalibrate its strategy. They’re no longer running against one of the wealthiest members of Congress — but they’re also no longer running against a well-known figure closely tied to President Donald Trump.
Now, the Democrats are competing in the June primary for one presumed spot to face the lone Republican in the race, County Supervisor Jim Desmond, the former mayor of San Marcos.
The Issa-Desmond switch “changes the playing field in a big way,” said Brandon Riker, a Palm Springs investor and one of the Democrats in the race. Issa “had incredibly high-name ID from being in Congress for so long,” he said.
The state party won’t endorse anyone ahead of the primary. San Diego Councilmember Marni von Wilpert received the most votes, but still came up short of securing the party’s blessing. Three-time candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar, who lost to Issa in the district in 2020, finished second in the nomination contest. Riker, a Palm Springs investor, was the only other candidate to receive party support.
They’re running in a district that the political world is still getting to know, and which is now one of the most closely watched in the country after it was created by Prop. 50, the voter-approved redistricting initiative crafted by Gov. Gavin Newsom specifically to flip seats blue.
The new district
About 51% of voters in the new district live in Riverside County, and the remainder are in northern San Diego County, in an area overlapping the district Desmond currently represents.
Earlier this year, Cook Political Report’s Erin Covey called the race a “toss-up.” But Issa’s departure hasn’t strengthened the Republican effort to hold the seat — Cook now rates the seat as “leaning Democratic,” despite the district’s familiarity with Desmond.
The narrow advantage is easy to see in the district’s registration numbers. The narrow advantage is easy to see in the district’s registration numbers. Registered Democrats represent 36% of voters, while 31% of the district are Republicans, according to Political Data Inc.
That gives Democrats an edge, but one small enough that gives the 33% of voters not registered with either party enough power to decide. Greater than 60% of voters are over the age of 55.
Recent elections also suggest a close race. Joe Biden would have won the new district by 7% in 2020, and Kamala Harris would have outpaced Donald Trump by 3.5% there in 2024, according to the California Target Book. But in 2022, Republican Brian Dahle would have actually beat Gov. Gavin Newsom by a small margin.
Temecula has the largest share of voters of the district’s 460,000 voters, with 16%. San Marcos (12%), Vista (12%), Escondido (11%), Hemet (11%) and Palm Springs (7%) are the next largest.
A brand-new race
Since Issa left and Desmond joined, it’s been Campa-Najjar who has most dominated headlines.
In the last two weeks, he has dealt with a week-long controversy over allegations he misrepresented or inappropriately relied on his role in the U.S. Naval Reserves as part of his campaign, and revelations from the New York Post that he used a racist slur on his MySpace page 17 years ago.
That will further raise the name ID of the Democrat in the field who might already be the most well-known, after losing two Congressional races and another for Chula Vista mayor. He is also dating Rep. Sara Jacobs.
Nonetheless, Campa-Najjar said he can relate to multiple large voting blocs in the district. His mother is Latina and he has three years of service in the Navy reserves. In an interview, he noted the district has been represented by a military member for decades, though the controversy over his use of in-uniform photos in his campaign could hurt his ability to connect with both active members and veterans.
He said he’s speaking to voters who have to decide between “buying a gallon of gas or buying a gallon of milk.”
“The job of a congressman is to be there on your worst day, when everything else has failed you, and get you access to VA benefits or social security,” he said. “But the second thing we can do is make sure California’s 48th district gets its fair share of federal dollars back into the community.” He mentioned housing projects, “non-draconian border solutions” and getting support for healthcare and infrastructure projects.
Von Wilpert also said the cost-of-living is the defining issue in the race.
“What I’ve been hearing from everyone in this district is about the skyrocketing cost of living,” Von Wilpert said. “One of the things I’m going to work hard on when I get to congress is undoing the damage of Trump’s ‘Big Ugly Bill.’”
She pointed to reversing health benefit cuts as something that is a national priority for Democrats that will also help constituents in San Diego and Riverside counties. Von Wilpert has also touted her history supporting labor unions, bringing money to San Diego for the new airport terminal, and working on the City Council to give access to grocery store coupons for people don’t use smart phones.
Riker, who studied economics, is pledging to reduce payroll taxes so workers could seemore money in each paycheck.
But he said he hopes voters take the time to study the candidates’ solutions.
“Candidates need to put forth an economic vision that solves real problems for real people, and I hope we start hearing that from more of the people in this race,” Riker said.
An election, or a referendum
Desmond walked into the race with an endorsement from Issa, over $1 million in his campaign account andblessings from the state’s top Republicans.
He too is stressing pocketbook issues — on the board of supervisors, he recently pushed the county to help first-time homebuyers with downpayments.
But even without Issa as a lightning rod, Riker said he fears the race among Democrats will function as a simple referendum on the president.
“Voters have a real opportunity — it’s not just who do they want to vote against, but who do they want to vote for?” he said. “This race becomes a lot less about name recognition, and more about momentum, organization and message.”
But there’s no denying the president’s looming role in the race.
Carol Gendel, a Democrat in the district, said following an event at the San Marcos Community Center in mid-March, that she was not surprised by the Desmond-Issa switch, because she had heard rumblings that it was coming.
“My biggest concern is that Desmond supports Donald Trump, and what I see happening in this country, I cannot agree with,” she said.
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