For 12 years, Maduro presided over the hollowing out of Venezuela as the steward of Chavismo, the hybrid regime forged by Hugo Chavez that wrapped authoritarianism in a democratic disguise. Rooted in a combustible mix of left-wing populism and petro-state largesse, the movement secured loyalty through social programs funded by an oil boom that has long since turned to bust. Chavismo defined itself globally by broadcasting fiery anti-Americanism while courting allies in Havana, Moscow, and Tehran to champion a multipolar world.
President Trump succeeded in removing Maduro, but Chavismo was not replaced by democracy. In an ironic twist, the American president became the regime’s midwife, forcing the old order to mutate and reinvent itself. Washington effectively recycled the regime under the leadership of Delcy Rodriguez, who served as Maduro’s vice president and was one of the most consequential operators within his inner circle. She was elevated to the interim presidency in what many interpret as a transactional arrangement between the Trump Administration and the Chavista establishment in Caracas.
The currency of exchange between America and Venezuela is oil. Washington is formalizing political tutelage that blends energy interests with geostrategic calculation and sending some of its senior-most officials—the Secretary of Energy, the C.I.A. director, and the commander of U.S. forces in Latin America—to Caracas. A reinvented Chavista power structure is operating with the support of its former adversaries. As the U.S. embraces the fraught policy of establishing spheres of influence, Venezuela has become a laboratory for redefining the kind of regimes Washington is willing to legitimize in the name of energy security and geopolitical stability.
Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world but produces only a fraction of its potential after years of infrastructural collapse and decline in extraction. Rodriguez has quickly secured the passage of a Hydrocarbons Law designed to attract foreign investment and restore oil production. In early March, the Trump Administration pushed for greater access for American companies to mining Venezuela’s critical minerals and gold; Rodriguez obliged by advancing a mining law in the National Assembly, which is expected to be codified into law soon.
And the disruption in the Persian Gulf, which has placed up to a fifth of global oil supply at risk, has altered the calculus. What once seemed a marginal asset now appears increasingly vital over the medium term. This economic reality is mirrored by diplomatic one. In a sign of normalization and institutional realignment, the U.S. government has recognized Rodríguez as president and reopened its embassy in Caracas, which had been closed since 2019.
No time for democracy in Caracas
What Trump is testing in Venezuela is a functional authoritarianism: stable, predictable, and strategically aligned with American energy and geopolitical interests. Washington’s business-first approach offers material order in exchange for indefinitely postponing democratic aspirations. Stability without democracy is a replicable model that could normalize the management of useful authoritarian governments worldwide.
The Trump Administration has sidelined González’s team in Madrid and Machado’s network in Washington from the new arrangements, even as Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently spoke of an eventual transition to democracy. Inside Venezuela, opposition leaders recently released from prison are starting to operate. Many are quietly regrouping, demanding an end to repression, a renewed electoral authority, and transparency in oil dealings with Washington.
What is truly at stake is the future of freedom in Venezuela and beyond. A stable, functional authoritarianism calibrated to serve American energy and geostrategic interests could be emerging as an acceptable model of governance. The attack on Iran and its consequences for the oil market make Venezuela’s geopolitical importance even clearer. The Rodríguez siblings have become central to a larger geopolitical calculus, while Trump’s support for opposition figures like Machado remains an open question.
Venezuela after Maduro is a template that could be exported across the globe, allowing Washington to oversee compliant authoritarian regimes while ignoring the erosion of democracy.
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