After reviewing the frontcourt and backcourt matchups for Arizona with in-depth breakdowns of Michigan’s personnel and some specific strategy to watch in the Final Four, it might seem like a hard zag to start the conclusion of our preview with officiating. And this is not being said with the fan hat on, I swear!
But two ultra-physical teams could turn this game into a slog if the referees aren’t ready to let the kids play, which is what happens more often than not in the collegiate game. Even in the Big 12 championship game, a conference with an identity centered around it, the whistles flew left and right, forcing both Arizona and Houston to work through foul trouble.
That would be significant on Saturday.
The Wolverines have three wholly unique players in junior center Aday Mara, sophomore big Morez Johnson Jr. and senior wing/big Yaxel Lendeborg that are irreplaceable, in addition to the extreme importance junior point guard Elliot Cadeau holds in the backourt.
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The rub, though, is that Michigan has put up great numbers on both ends of the equation to counter one of Arizona’s biggest strengths.
Drawing fouls is a large part of how Arizona wins.
The Wildcats, through four NCAA Tournament wins, forced 88 fouls out of their opponents (22 per game) en route to 133 free-throw attempts (33.3 FTA/G). On the year, Michigan gave up 16.6 FTA/G, 37th in D1, and committed 15.5 fouls per game, 35th in D1.
Not only would Arizona getting to the line as much as it wanted mean great news for its offense, but that would likely spell foul trouble for at least one of those four Michigan guys.
Michigan, to its credit, will embrace contact as well.
It got 100 free-throw attempts in four victories and generated 75 fouls out of its opponent. Not to Arizona’s level, but close. The Wolverines were top-75 in FTA/G and top-50 in opposing foul rate in the regular season, too.
The Wildcats would normally feel confident if junior center Motiejus Krivas got in foul trouble. Reserve senior big Tobe Awaka has done just fine in relief as a rim protector, but the difference on Saturday is that Awaka would be marking the 7-foot-3 Mara that 7-foot-2 Krivas cancels out nicely.
Senior guard Jaden Bradley has almost always avoided that issue, while his backcourt mate Brayden Burries is prone to freshman mistakes and getting some silly ones early in a game. We previously talked about how Burries’ shot creation is one of the X-factors of the entire matchup. And if freshman wing Ivan Kharchenkov gets too excited, it could bring a massive moment for freshman wing Dwayne Aristode to check Lendeborg.
Again, all of this would normally filter under “no duh,” but the general sentiment from both coaching staffs to their teams all week will have been about not letting the other team get the edge in physicality. Both are used to having it in every game. Only one can Saturday, so which team doesn’t overdo it, and if the officiating allows this war to occur, is the largest external factor of the game. The kids will be antsy because it’s the Final Four. Let them play!
Speaking further on the psychology of the game within the game, how Arizona responds to Michigan’s attitude will be intriguing.
Michigan’s got some for sure. This group is cocky and has a knack for rubbing opponents the wrong way. Watch them on the floor, and they play with a swagger like they know they’re the best. They love to talk. For how some college basketball fans can react and call immaturity on the kids, it’s honestly more reminiscent of a young and good NBA team that doesn’t know any better.
To that point, a handful of Wolverines’ remarks to the media over the season have irked college basketball fans. The PR training hasn’t quite kicked in yet, or they just don’t care. So for some diehards, these Wolverines will be seen as the villains of the Final Four.
It’s worth bringing up because Arizona hasn’t seen much of that energy before. It has to respond properly to it. The Wolverines won’t change who they are because of the lights getting brighter. If anything, they’ll welcome the stage to bark even louder. Michigan’s script has been a whole lot this year, has been big leads while keeping the yapping going to make the opposition reach its breaking point in a few different ways, which we saw firsthand in the Elite Eight. Composure is huge for the Wildcats and not letting any frustration lead to unnecessary fouls so it maintains the aforementioned advantage.
Both fanbases will carry extra anxiety because of how close it has come before.
Arizona relieved a lot of that stress by breaking its streak of five straight losses in the Elite Eight, but the last time the Wildcats were in the final weekend, they lost the national championship to Duke in 2001. Before Lute Olson won the program’s only title in 1997, he lost at this stage of the Final Four in both 1988 and 1994. Arizona’s all-time record in the final weekend is 3-3.
Michigan, on the other hand, is scarred from this stage specifically. Since winning its only championship in 1989, the Wolverines have been to the Final Four on four separate occasions. In all four, they won the first game and lost the second, a.k.a the championship game. There were also two national semifinal losses before then, as well as another separate title game defeat. Michigan’s all-time record in the final weekend is 8-7.
All of this is a testament to the quality of the matchup this is and the level of basketball we should see played in the sport’s largest stage. In all likelihood, something as minute as foul trouble, a mental edge, or a specific matchup at one position will swing the final result. It should be a doozy.
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