On the federal level, Republicans hold both seats in the U.S. Senate and 20 of the 28 seats in the House of Representatives. Statewide, aside from the governorship held by Ron DeSantis for nearly two terms, Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, and all seven seats of the state supreme court. In 2024, Republicans picked up two additional seats in the state House elections, solidifying its supermajority status.
“We can get back there. We are in this place now, but this isn't fixed. This isn't forever,” said Emily Gregory, Florida state House of Representative-elect who pulled a surprising victory against a Trump-endorsed candidate in the district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.
“I definitely heard, by far the most, ‘why is my home insurance so much higher than it was five, six years ago? Why? I'm not getting more coverage, you know, and it's thousands of dollars,’” she said. “It can be a huge percentage increase and that has a state-level solution.”
By prioritizing the economic concerns of her constituents, she managed to earn support from Democrats, Independents, and even some Republican neighbors. A close look at the election result breakdown also showed how many Republicans and Independents voted for Gregory who won by 800 votes. Among voters who cast their ballots in the special election in Palm Beach County, more than 15,000 people are registered Republicans, while more than 12,000 people are registered Democrats, and 5,316 people have no party affiliation.
“I take full responsibility, and there will be some changes as we move forward now,” Maple told Florida Politics.
Democrats win deep red districts by focusing on rising costs
“Florida has gotten more expensive over the last, I don't know, 10,15, years — at least as long as I've been here, and wages haven't kept up,” Brian Nathan said in a local radio interview. “Actually address the issues that voters have, and the voters will reward you with their trust.”
“It’s not about a warning sign. It’s a reminder that you take nothing for granted,” Donalds said.
“These isolated wins show Democrats can compete in targeted areas particularly by focusing on affordability, housing and local concerns, but they do not change the overall trajectory of the state,” she said.
A few months later, Democrat Andy Thompson beat his opponent in the Boca Raton mayoral race by five votes, the first Democrat elected in 33 years. Even among races that Democrats have lost in the past year, the margins of losses have become thinner. Republican Rep. Jimmy Patronis of Florida won the special election in April 2025 by 14 points, in a congressional district that Matt Gaetz won by 32 points in 2024.
Affordability crisis reshapes Florida’s midterm battleground
“Every election, or special election, it's been unbelievable. The overperformance of Democrats,” said Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel of Florida, who has represented Palm Beach County in the U.S. House for more than 13 years. She added that as the state with the nation’s highest number of enrollment of the Affordable Care Act, Florida has been hit hard with the rising cost of health insurance. Advocacy groups warn that for more than 4 million Floridians, roughly 20% of the state’s population, the monthly premiums are expected to increase by double digits in 2026.
“I'll be honest, there's a lot of candidates, strategists and myself included, frankly, that believe that this is gonna be quite the fundraising boost for Democratic candidates in Florida,” said one Democratic operative who is not authorized to speak publicly.
Feeling bullish from recent gains at the local and state levels, Democrats from both Tallahassee and Washington D.C. are ramping up efforts to challenge more Republicans in the midterms. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told Punchbowl News that House Democrats think there are “at least a half a dozen Florida Republicans” who are vulnerable in the midterm election. Meanwhile, some Republicans are now publicly cautioning about a mid-decade redistricting effort pushed by DeSantis, which could backfire on House Republicans by including more Democratic voters into their districts.
“We are not without good members with good ideas, who have proposed good bills. We are just without the power to be able to really, really push forward what we want to pass,” she said.
“We had a lot of volunteers in both of these two seats that came out, knocked on doors, made phone calls, wrote postcards, sent text messages, and they saw that their work paid off,” Fried said. “Donors are taking our phone calls faster than they had in previous attempts. And people are excited because they see that Florida has always been worth fighting for.”
“You can't say that they are anomalies when they keep happening,” she continued. “It is not just small wins. It is an overperformance of 17 points, and so it is a consistent over-performance and a consistent wins when we have put in time, energy, resources, [and] great candidates.”
“Now it's time for the nation to remember that Florida was always a swing state,” Fried added.
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