The most likely outcome of Saturday’s Final Four game between Arizona and Michigan is that when the irresistible force meets the immovable object, a frontcourt war for the ages is more or less a draw.
It would take some majorly uncharacteristic performances out of a few of those big men for the tide to turn too heavily in one direction or the other.
So perhaps that leaves the fate of advancing to the national championship to the other players on the floor. The guards.
The flaws of both teams lie within its backcourts, because when interior domination is not coming naturally, the pressure then shifts to the ball-handlers. That brings an expected amount of inconsistency with the on-off switch those kids have to play with.
Michigan will often go as its junior point guard Elliot Cadeau goes, a reliance somewhat similar to Arizona’s with senior guard and Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley.
The difference is Cadeau became the only player on the roster fit for his duties after a major mid-season injury.
Michigan’s backcourt has over-reliance on Elliot Cadeau
A transfer addition in the summer from North Carolina, Cadeau averages 5.7 assists per game and his primary job is facilitating the game towards the bigs while being a downhill threat. Whether that’s running two-man action with them or getting things organized for touches elsewhere, it’s largely on his shoulders to make sure the best options on the floor get fed.
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The game-changer for Michigan oftentimes is when Cadeau is a dribble-driver that threatens defenses for himself and not just his teammates. Bradley is much more of a direct driver and shot creator than the more “floor general” vibe Cadeau brings, with his paint touches mostly serving a drive-and-kick purpose.
When defenses can force Cadeau to beat them, they see success.
In the Big Ten Tournament Final, a Purdue win, Cadeau shot 4-for-12. He did generate 10 assists, but Michigan’s 72 points were not enough with its defensive woes against an elite offense. Michigan’s defeat at the hands of Duke featured Cadeau going 1-of-8 from the field with six assists.
A dramatic shift in Michigan’s offensive dynamic came in late February nine games ago when reserve sophomore point guard L.J. Cason tore his ACL. You might see the loss of an 18.4 MPG player as inconsequential. Cason, however, was the only ball-handler on the roster that could consistently create his own shot and put pressure on the rim.
This was a big hit to one of Michigan’s greatest strengths, its bench, and also the offense as a whole. None of the other guards we’ll cover set the table and get aggressive attacking defenses the way Cason did.
That really puts it all on Cadeau, at least in the backcourt. Head coach Dusty May started having senior wing/big Yaxel Lendeborg taking on more initiating of offense, the role you would have expected for him to take on more prominently before the Wolverines debuted the jumbo frontcourt lineup.
The reliance on those two is backed up by the minute totals. In the nine games since the Cason injury, Lendeborg has played 34.1 MPG, up from 29.4 MPG prior. Cadeau is up from 25.4 MPG to 32.1 MPG. Don’t expect either guy to rest much on Saturday.
Initially, it did not look pretty to conclude the year. The Wolverines managed just 71 points versus Iowa before Big Ten Tournament point totals of 71, 68 and 72.
But those issues evaporated in the tourney. Michigan has posted 47-plus points in seven of its eight halves, and the other lone half was still a more-than-fine output of 43. Whether that’s the problem getting solved or taking care of business against mediocre defenses, we’ll find out on Saturday.
Cadeau’s decision-making will really affect a lot of that. If Arizona can get him uncomfortable and more shaky with his choices, like Bradley can be, that is a huge swing in the Wildcats’ favor. But if Cadeau is orchestrating and the ball is humming, Arizona better be in business on the other end to keep up.
Can Michigan’s complementary guards hit shots?
When that ball is moving, Michigan has the shooting to really hurt a defense if it wants to sell out on the interior, a common tactic by Arizona. And after a full season with the passing chops of junior center Aday Mara and Lendeborg, all of these dudes cut, so off-ball defense is a major part of the Wildcats equation.
Starting senior guard Nimari Burnett is out there to space the floor, and he does so well (38.1 3P%, 4.1 3PA/G). But he knows defenses know that, so he’s crafty with his off-ball movement and will use fakes to get to the basket with cuts as well. His experience often shows.
Freshman guard Trey McKenney was a candidate to step up in Cason’s place and provides reliable shooting (38.4 3P%, 4.3 3PA/G) with strong drives when he’s aggressive as the next-best shot creator after Cason. He and Burnett are the two supplementary pieces to watch, as in if either are in double figures, that’s a good sign for Michigan.
And while senior forward Will Tschetter classifies more as a big, he’s out there to shoot. Eighty-two of his 106 shots this year have been from 3 and he knocked down 35.4% of ’em. Arizona will have to capitalize on the glass and inside when Tschetter plays against a two-big look.
For what it’s worth, Cadeau is at 37.7% and Lendeborg is right there too at 37.2%. No one is great or even elite as a shooter, but five different guys are capable.
The non-shooter of the bunch is senior guard Roddy Gayle Jr., another X-factor for the Wolverines given how he is the connector of the backcourt. He didn’t take or make 3s too much in the regular season, but is 7-for-12 in the tourney, so maybe the number of shooters should raise to six. Michigan is a different team when he’s contributing. Across the Wolverines’ two losses late in the season, Gayle had two points apiece in each defeat.
Arizona’s edge comes in backcourt matchups
A real dividing point in this overall matchup is if Arizona’s perimeter defenders will have any trouble tracking Michigan’s threats off the dribble, and more importantly, vice versa. Without Cason, it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats’ stout trio of Bradley, freshman guard Brayden Burries and freshman wing Ivan Kharchenkov have any struggles containing those guys. Those three have been fantastic defensively all year.
The question is if a group of solid-to-great Michigan perimeter defenders in the backcourt can keep Bradley and Burries in front.
Cadeau is only 6-foot-1 and Burnett is under 200 pounds at 6-foot-5. McKenney (6-foot-4, 225 pounds) and Gayle (6-foot-5, 210 pounds) have the more disruptive builds to be deterrents. But none of them profile as the quality of defenders to really bother Bradley and Burries.
So, where things get interesting is that the 6-foot-9 Lendeborg typically defends the best initiator and ball-handler. But while he is a versatile defender that can pester guards, Bradley and Burries bring more quickness to the table than the average Big Ten guard, and Arizona’s size could mean Lendeborg stays away from on-ball duties. Either way, Michigan will have to find solutions to contain that pair.
Bradley was phenomenal in the second half of the Elite Eight game, bringing rim pressure to kick off Arizona’s snowballing effect of downhill intensity that completely engulfed Purdue. His first step has always been his best skill, and as a senior, he has evolved its utilization from slashing to a midrange game to now using a bit of foul-baiting to generate free throws. Bradley is prone to brainfarts with the ball and too often will drive into traffic, but when things are clicking for him as the primary attacker, the Wildcats cannot be stopped.
In a game that could feature up to six first-round picks in the upcoming NBA Draft, Burries is the best prospect out of them all. He and Illinois freshman Keaton Wagler are the two potential top-10 selections left, and either could have a major moment on Saturday. Burries is a comfortable three-level scorer, and his pull-up game that extends out beyond the 3-point line is a dynamic no one else in this game provides. In his last 11 games, Burries is shooting 53.4% from the field and 47.1% from deep for 18.4 points per game. He’s the guy that could outshine Michigan’s star power in the frontcourt.
At least while the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Mara is on the floor, the story schematically will be how often Bradley and Burries attack the junior center’s drop coverage. Mara wants to stay close to home around the basket. While he moves his feet better than you’d expect, that doesn’t eliminate the chance of Mara getting exposed on the perimeter.
Bradley and Burries are both comfortable midrange shooters. If head coach Tommy Lloyd plans to somewhat divert his interior gameplan out of respect to what Michigan does defensively around the paint, a wise decision, that’s the most basic pathway there. Neither Arizona guard consistently seek out the shot, and more so take it when it comes in the flow of the offense. Perhaps a more assertive hunt for those looks will be in order, particularly for Burries.
The foundation that would plant is more urgency from Michigan defenders to hound Bradley and Burries, which is where their quickness past Michigan’s guards could be maximized even further. Michigan’s counter, of course, will be when Mara sits and getting more aggressive with how far out sophomore Morez Johnson Jr. meets a ball-handler as it comes around a screen. Or, Michigan is just going to switch more than it normally does. That’s the chess match.
How it all affects a pivotal 3-point math game
Does all of this lead to Arizona taking more 3s? While the Wildcats’ lack of volume has been well-documented this year, it has taken 20-plus in eight different games this year, so the concept is not foreign. If anything, neither is the one of “take what the defense gives you.” If Mara stays dropped back and someone like Burries keeps coming around a well-set screen to space, he’s going to let it go. And if Michigan gets hedge and trap heavy as a result, Arizona’s quick ball rotations can result in open corner 3s for others.
We already covered how Michigan has the shooters, and an interesting tidbit is when it takes high volume, volatility comes with it. In the 14 games the Wolverines have taken more than 25 3s, which is their average, they shot 45% or better in six of those games and 33% or worse in another six. If the guards can’t get the ball inside and the narrative around Arizona’s 3-point shooting has them more trigger happy than usual, there is a major boom-or-bust element to that.
That is where Michigan can obviously win this game on the perimeter. Not solely due to the math, but how that would allow a capable complementary group to outplay Bradley and Burries, the two guards with the most star power. The issue for both Bradley and Burries is that they are often effective more so by the half, not by the game. This is a matchup where the Wildcats need a full masterclass from one of ’em.
What Cadeau is doing as a tempo-setter and how his teammates are helping offensively (like Lendeborg) is a big-time barometer. But if Arizona can get a classic performance out of either Bradley or Burries, that can be the great equalizer to anything Michigan is doing elsewhere.
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