Good morning. So far, there is only one clear winner from the war in Iran: Russia. Before the US and Israel attacked Tehran in late February, Moscow was preparing deep budget cuts to education and healthcare funding to pay for its invasion of Ukraine, which has now entered its fifth year.
In just over a month of the fighting in Iran, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has experienced a dramatic reversal in fortunes. The global oil price has shot up from a prewar average of $72 to well over $100 per barrel, providing a financial boost of multi-billions for Moscow that shows little sign of ending.
Meanwhile, important restrictions on Russian oil have been lifted, and Kyiv is increasingly nervous about how the Iran war will impact their ability to obtain defensive weapons from the US to fend off Russian drones and missiles.
How did the tables turn so quickly? And what will be the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East be on Ukraine? For today’s newsletter, I spoke with Pjotr Sauer, a Russian affairs reporter for the Guardian, about how the two conflicts are connected. But first, the headlines.
Five big stories
Middle East | Donald Trump has launched a tirade against European countries that refused to join his war against Iran, calling out the UK and France.
Military | The UK is sending more military support to the Gulf, taking the total deployment to 1,000 troops.
NHS England | Some medicines could run out in weeks or even days, NHS England head warns, after supply line shocks.
UK politics | Nigel Farage to ‘steer well clear’ of UK CPAC event in July being led by the short-lived former prime minister Liz Truss.
UK news | King Charles’s state visit to US to go ahead in late April despite Iran war concerns.
In depth: Russia is the big winner from this war
India is buying a lot of Russian oil despite pressure from the US. Photograph: Sajjad Hussain/AFP/Getty ImagesOn first sight, the US-Israeli attack on Iran may have seemed bad news for Vladimir Putin.
The killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei marks the loss of another key regional ally for the global superpower, following two others: the fall of Syria’s president Bashar Al-Assad, and the US seizure of Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro.
Furthermore, many assumed that by providing direct intelligence on US military positions to the Iranians, Russia risked angering the Trump administration, who have long been sympathetic to the Kremlin’s worldview. But this view has not been proved right so far, says Pjotr.
“Russia is the big winner from this war,” he says. He points first to the fact that some restrictions on Russian oil put in place when the war with Ukraine first began have now been lifted.
“The US was putting pressure on Russia’s traditional allies who were buying oil, including India and China. Now, that’s been reversed,” he says. At an opportune time, that reversal means the many Asian countries affected by the global supply squeeze coming out of the conflict in the Middle East are now looking to Russia to fill the gap providing a lifeline to Putin for his stretched war machine.
“India is buying lots of Russian oil. We are seeing that other countries are interested, especially in Asia … They’re all turning to Russia now. In that sense, Russia is benefiting immensely. If this continues, we’ll hear more murmurs in Europe about getting Russian oil and gas, which is obviously a devastating outcome for Ukraine.”
A mini domestic crisis in Russia
That does not mean all is well in Moscow, says Pjotr. A crackdown on the popular social media app Telegram, internet blackouts, and frustration over slow progress in Ukraine have irritated many Russians. In mid-March, a popular pro-Kremlin blogger abruptly turned on the Russian president, calling him “illegitimate” and demanding he stand trial for war crimes. He was later sent to a psychiatric ward. Approval ratings for Putin’s leadership fell to 70%, according to state-backed polling, the lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine. While the figures remain remarkably high by western standards, Pjotr says it shows a clear trend.
“Russia is facing a mini domestic crisis. We’re seeing that discontent is brewing, primarily over the fact that Russia is starting to block popular messaging apps. WhatsApp has been blocked already. YouTube is blocked. But now Russia is moving to block Telegram, which is this hugely popular messaging app,” says Pjotr.
But forecasting the fortunes of the 73-year-old Russian leader is a fool’s errand. In February, Putin did not appear in public for more than a week, sparking rumours about his health, not for the first time. Pjotr says this is a distraction. A month later, Putin reappeared as strong as ever, as he has done after previous ‘disappearances’.
A revived war machine
As the fighting continues in the Middle East, Putin appears confident he will be able to sustain his war machine in Ukraine. Russian business contacts tell Pjotr the Kremlin is increasingly convinced that they will get all of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine as part of any settlement. Putin hopes to make a “grand deal” with the US, says Pjotr, in which the west agrees to halt Nato expansion and stop arming Ukraine in exchange for peace. Such an agreement would make Ukraine permanently weaker – and risk a future invasion for even more of the country. And so far, Russian support for Iran has not yet angered President Trump or affected Moscow’s optimism about the outcome of the Ukraine war.
“It is quite hard to wrap your head around. Russia is directly involved in the war on Iran’s side. Trump still appears to favour Putin. Russia is providing Iran intelligence, and potentially drones in the future, to target American soldiers. Despite all this, Trump is not hardening his position towards Moscow and continues to pressure Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” he says. “Zelenskyy wants to offer his help to the US to protect American soldiers, he wants to offer his help to the Gulf states. It is really hard to understand why [Trump continues to favour Putin].”
A role reversal for Ukraine
For Kyiv, the war in Iran has heaped on more misery after a cold and brutal winter. No negotiations on ending the fighting with Russia have taken place since fighting started in Iran, says Pjotr. In recent days, Zelenskyy has sought to establish partnerships with Gulf states to offer expertise on defending themselves from drones, part of a strategy to remain relevant internationally.
“Zelenskyy was in the Middle East over the weekend where he met leaders from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar. He’s now offering his experts to guide countries in the Middle East against Iranian drones, as well as actually offering to sell Ukrainian drones. It is a fascinating situation where Ukraine tries to transform itself from a weapons receiver to actually a weapons deliverer,” he says.
But with the world’s attention elsewhere, Russian attacks have intensified, bringing further misery for Ukraine, says Pjotr.
“Last week, it sent more than a thousand drones to Ukrainian cities. It was a record,” he says. “The US is completely distracted by the war in Iran. There haven’t been any talks since the start of the fighting. Zelenskyy seems worried that Ukraine is being forgotten.”
In previous years, spring has heralded a fresh Russian assault on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine as the biting winter cold fades. The stakes could not be higher for Kyiv, which is still holding back the Russians in the east. But the spectre of a potential betrayal by the Trump administration looms large.
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