For a man obsessed with legacy, Donald Trump appears hellbent on destroying his greatest achievement, one which previously seemed impossible to take from him: the Maga movement.
If the attack on Venezuela turned even Trump loyalists like Marjorie Taylor Greene against the US President, the war in Iran has carved a far deeper divide in his base.
The fallout of the Iran conflict could not have been better designed to upset the “America First” Maga mindset. Trump’s core supporters signed up to a worldview which saw foreign wars as costly and pointless, a waste of American resources and American lives.
Yet choking critical trade routes has caused economic uncertainty and made essential goods like food and fuel more expensive for Americans. Attacking a hostile country with a military as lethal as that which Iran has, seemingly without a plan, has led to missile and drone attacks on US bases. Now, as 3,500 troops arrive in the region, the prospect of American soldiers being deployed on the ground in Iran is increasingly real. In short: making Americans poorer and sending troops to their death doesn’t feel very America First.
It’s not just prominent Maga voices like Greene, far-right influencer Nick Fuentes and former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson that have abandoned Trump. Last week, his approval ratings hit an all-time low. This is a problem for Republicans in the run-up to midterms, as the man who was once their best electoral asset appears to have become increasingly toxic.
Losing the House, and possibly the Senate, would naturally have an impact on Trump’s agenda. More existentially, it could cut the legs off the Maga movement and cement in the minds of voters that electing Trump was a historic error.
Ever since Trump’s first victory in 2016, there has been speculation about who would inherit the Maga crown. The personnel in Trump’s second administration provided some possible answers to that question. Unlike in 2017, when his shock candidacy and subsequent victory forced Trump to surround himself with GOP establishment figures, his supporting cast now is largely loyalist headbangers who are willing to follow Trump wherever he may roam. At the height of his popularity, being viewed as the Trump-endorsed Maga heir apparent was invaluable. But as the value of Trump diminishes, so too does any association.
Those assumed to have leadership ambitions – including former Trump critics like US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio – are unlikely to abandon Maga, should their time come. Not necessarily because they now believe in Trumpism wholesale, but because it’s impossible for either to distance themselves from the administration’s actions – for better or (as it appears right now) for worse.
The uncomfortable truth is that the beast Trump created has begun eating its babies. Not only are those who served Trump forever associated with him, but even moderate Republicans with White House ambitions would need to find ways of winning over the Maga monster, which will still be an influential bloc when the time comes for a new candidate.
The President has toyed with the idea of upending the Constitution and running for a third term ever since his return to the White House. How this would work legally, who knows, but it is clearly an idea that some of his most ardent footsoldiers believe has legs. However, if the weight of Trump’s failures were sufficient to sink Rubio and Vance, it would surely do even worse to the man himself.
It’s not all over just yet for Trump or Maga. Trump faces more problems than his Middle East misadventure right now, but it is probably the most urgent. At present, only two options appear on the table concerning Iran and only one that can help Trump save face with the public.
The first is to find an off-ramp which ends hostilities and restores some version of normalcy, where energy prices stabilise and markets calm down. This outcome, however, would mean Trump swallowing a number of humiliations. He’d have failed to bring about regime change. Worse, he’d have allowed Iran to prove that even in its weakened state, it can weaponise global trade and activate regional proxies at the drop of a hat – and in doing so, force America into submission.
That, astonishingly, is the better of the two options. If Trump could find a way to spin immediate withdrawal as a victory, his base might forget about what a disaster this has been and move on to other domestic issues.
The second option is that he beds in for a long campaign. Even if that falls short of boots on the ground, it would mean a continuation of the current economic instability, leaving American citizens worse off. Iran would continue to strike US bases, which could mean more casualties and deaths for deployed US forces.
Neither of these choices are easy to sell as being in the interests of the US. One represents a great humiliation that emboldens America’s greatest adversary. The other allows for the prolonged economic suffering of Americans and the death of servicemen.
Clearly, Trump’s decision to bomb Iran has backfired, no matter what he claims. It has exposed the administration as out of its depth. While it may not realise it now, when the time comes for the GOP to find a new candidate, the war on Iran, along with its fallout, will be used to assess the competence of wannabe Presidents.
For those with their fingerprints all over this catastrophic cock-up, it could mean the end of their ambitions.
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