Good morning. On 7 May, voters in England will go to the polls for a series of local elections, on the same day that Scotland and Wales vote for new governments. It promises to be a torrid time for Keir Starmer and his governing Labour party, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, Zack Polanski’s Green party and Rhun ap Iorwerth’s Plaid Cymru expected to make breakthroughs.
Recent polling, though, suggests that the overall balance between those on the right and those on the left has barely shifted – rather, previously loyal Conservative voters are moving towards Farage’s party, while Labour voters are deserting to other progressive options.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Jessica Elgot, the Guardian’s deputy political editor, about what we can expect to see in England’s local elections, and what the consequences of the vote could be. First, the headlines.
Five big stories
Middle East crisis | Donald Trump has threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power stations and fresh water plants if Tehran does not agree to peace terms “shortly”.
Israel | Israel’s parliament has passed a law imposing the death penalty on Palestinians convicted of fatal attacks, a measure sharply criticised as discriminatory by European countries and rights groups.
BBC | The BBC has sacked the Radio 2 presenter Scott Mills after allegations about his personal conduct. The corporation said that “while we do not comment on matters relating to individuals, we can confirm Scott Mills is no longer contracted and has left the BBC”.
Politics | Zack Polanski has kicked off a charm offensive designed to convince trade unions to stop funding Labour and throw their weight behind the Green party, as he delivered the first in a series of speeches to union conferences.
Travelodge | A woman who was sexually assaulted by an employee at a Travelodge has said she was shocked to learn the hotel chain’s boss cancelled a meeting with a group of MPs seeking to discuss concerns about the case.
In depth: ‘Unfamiliar territory for British politics’
Kemi Badenoch launching a campaign against fuel tax. Photograph: Neil Hall/EPAIn England, there are just over 5,000 council seats up for grabs on 7 May, with elections spanning all 32 London borough councils, 32 metropolitan boroughs, 18 unitary authorities, six county councils, 48 district councils and six directly elected mayors in England.
“There was always an expectation in Labour HQ that these elections would function like a midterm referendum on the government,” Jessica Elgot tells me.
“What wasn’t anticipated was quite how perilous Keir Starmer’s position would look among his own MPs by this point – and just how many different directions Labour’s vote is now being pulled in.”
Why these elections are unusually hard to read
The increasingly fragmented, multiparty landscape makes these elections particularly difficult to judge, says Jess. “Normally, you can map out best-case and worst-case scenarios for a party,” she says. “This time, with so many parties competing across different parts of the country, you could end up with a very confusing, mixed picture.”
Labour, she says, isn’t losing support in just one direction – it’s potentially losing it to parties across the spectrum. “There’s a much bigger story here about how new and unfamiliar this territory is for British politics.”
One important note: even if you are an elections geek, it is probably not worth pulling an all-nighter on the day of the elections. Most councils in England won’t start counting until the next day, and some results won’t come through until the Saturday.
What is Labour’s pitch to the voters?
Starmer’s central argument to the electorate is essentially: stick with us, don’t take a risk on alternatives. Labour is framing the election as a choice between stability and volatility, arguing that switching to Reform or other parties would jeopardise progress on tackling the cost of living. Ministers are pointing to measures to address energy bills, wages, childcare and pensions as evidence that things are beginning to improve, urging voters to “stay the course”.
Alongside that economic message is a broader appeal to security and values. In what Starmer is casting as an increasingly unstable world, Labour’s pitch is that “a Britain built for all” based on the “fairness we stand for” at home and stability abroad are linked – and that rival parties represent poor judgment. Reform and the Conservatives are being portrayed as reckless, particularly on foreign policy, while the Greens are dismissed as offering the “wrong answers”. The underlying strategy is to consolidate Labour’s vote by presenting it as the only credible, responsible option in a fragmented political landscape. None of which, of course, is about what local councils do – get the bins emptied, potholes filled and cover the costs of social care.
Who is best placed to benefit from Labour’s unpopularity?
“With Reform, you’d expect gains from Labour and the Conservatives,” Jess says. “Some of their council wins are likely to come directly at the Conservatives’ expense – particularly in places such as Essex and outer London. But they’re also targeting Labour heartlands in the north and the Midlands – places such as Sunderland and Barnsley – where they could make significant inroads.”
The Greens, by contrast, are targeting dissatisfied Labour voters. “You could see them make real advances in parts of London that have traditionally been very safe for Labour – places such as Hackney, Newham, Lambeth or Waltham Forest.”
The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, “are operating in a very different lane to the Greens”, Jess says. Their strategy has been to target disaffected Conservative voters, particularly in more affluent areas. “That’s why you can walk from Land’s End to London without going through a Tory constituency.”
For Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, the best hope of good news may come in traditional London bellwethers – Westminster, Barnet and Wandsworth – where they could claw back some ground. This past weekend, my colleague Peter Walker reported that, perhaps contrary to expectations, many of Badenoch’s MPs are “relative to their mood in recent years, quite cheery”.
What does it mean for Starmer?
A clash of animosities may define the local elections in England. Photograph: Alicia Canter/The GuardianIn her analysis last week, Guardian political editor Pippa Crerar suggested a clash of animosities was likely to define the vote as people opt for “anyone but Labour” or “anyone but Reform”.
“Local elections are often a kind of ‘free hit’ for voters,” Jess says. “People don’t always feel they have to think about the national picture in the same way, or vote tactically. That can make them a space where frustration is expressed more freely.”
London and the north-east will be critical for Labour. Many of its MPs are in London, and “what happens in their own back yard will really matter for internal party confidence”.
Meanwhile, “you could see Reform making advances in places where you’d never previously expect Labour to be seriously challenged, such as areas of Liverpool. That will give us one of the clearest indications yet of how deep that shift in support really is.”
Senior party figures have warned that voters would punish the party further at the ballot box for indulging in a leadership contest while Starmer was trying to navigate through the international crisis of a war in the Middle East, which may insulate him from the most severe outcome. The king’s speech on 13 May and a potential cabinet reshuffle will, Downing Street hopes, quickly shift focus away from a local election debacle.
What Labour are ultimately banking on, Jess says, is that at a general election voters will return to them as the best “stop Farage” option. That may come as cold comfort to Keir Starmer, on what looks set to be a very difficult set of results.
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