Good morning. Will a war-induced recession inspire CEOs to speak out against the Trump administration? Economists like Moodys’ Mark Zandi say odds of a recession are now high. We know that most U.S. CEOs disapprove of Trump’s leadership, from his administration’s policies around tariffs and immigration to its approach to science, free speech and rule of law.
While business leaders might not have wanted the U.S. to start a war against Iran right now, they’re divided about when to end it. At the annual CERAWeek gathering in Houston last week, energy leaders from Dow CEO Jim Fitterling to Chevron’s Mike Wirth warned of dire consequences if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t opened to shipping as soon as possible. But JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon said the war could mean a “better chance” of permanent peace in the Middle East, while BlackRock CEO Larry Fink predicted the war could result in prosperity or a global recession—but not much in-between.
What’s clear is that no one is winning the war at the moment. Oil prices are up more than 50%, forcing Asia to hunt for alternatives. Russia isn’t gaining much, thanks to its war with Ukraine. It’s costing U.S. taxpayers about $1 billion a day, and that doesn’t include the 10,000 jobs lost from the economic impact. The people who’ve paid the steepest price, of course, are the 3,000+ who’ve been killed and more than 4.2 million displaced, according to U.N. estimates.
At some point, there may be too much to ignore. I didn’t see much evidence of high-profile business leaders among the 8 million people attending the 3,300 anti-Trump No Kings protests on Saturday. But I do see signs of mounting concerns: Chubb CEO Evan Greenberg told me last week that “democracy is so fragile,” Citadel’s Ken Griffin revealed that he and his CEO peers find the current government’s favoritism “extremely distasteful,” and more than 60 CEOs, including leaders of 3M, Best Buy, Cargill, General Mills, Land O’Lakes, Target, Xcel Energy and UnitedHealth Group signed that letter of protest against ICE actions in Minnesota. One CEO confessed to me recently that they are “shell-shocked” by the administration’s policies but feel a fiduciary duty to not put their company in harm’s way by speaking up. If the war starts to seriously impact stock prices and profits, that could change.Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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