Voters back Shabana Mahmood’s plan to make it harder for migrants to settle in the UK but are split on whether to tighten the rules for those already in the country amid a Labour revolt, a poll suggests.
The Home Secretary’s plan to extend the default period to qualify for indefinite leave to remain (ILR), or settlement, in the UK from five to 10 years was backed by 39 per cent of voters, with 26 per cent opposed, the BMG Research survey for The i Paper showed.
But the public is split over whether to apply the changes retrospectively to hundreds of thousands of migrants who arrived since 2022, an issue that is triggering a Labour revolt and was described by ex-deputy prime minister Angela Rayner as “un-British”.
Just over a third (36 per cent) of voters support applying the tougher rules to migrants already in the UK, while 30 per cent are opposed.
Voters who backed Labour in the last election are more likely to both support (41 per cent) and oppose (36 per cent) the changes being applied retrospectively, highlighting the difficulty facing Sir Keir Starmer as he considers whether or not to make concessions to rebel MPs.
On Sunday, the Prime Minister hinted the reforms may be softened amid a revolt of more than 100 Labour MPs, peers and union leaders, and after a consultation with around 200,000 responses that Mahmood is currently considering.
Starmer said he was sympathetic to some of the arguments made by social workers about the impact of the changes, telling the Sunday Mirror: “It’s very important to recognise we’re only at the end of the consultation, so there’s no decisions made.
“We must always remember that people do want firm rules.
“They want clear rules, but they also want compassionate and fair rules, and certainly in relation to some of the arguments that have been made, for example, by social workers about the impact on them, they make a powerful case, in my view.”
While 10 years will be the default, migrants will still be able to qualify for settlement after five years if they meet certain criteria, such as having a high skilled job or working in public service as a doctor, teacher or nurse. However the qualifying period will also be extended beyond 10 years for certain migrants, such as those who have claimed benefits or arrived in the UK via irregular rather than legal routes.
BMG pollster Jack Curry said: “Proposals to extend the qualifying period for ILR from five to ten years attract more support than opposition across all major voting groups, suggesting a broad acceptance of tighter settlement rules even among voters who are otherwise more liberal on migration or Europe.
“This points to a public that is increasingly comfortable with firmer controls in principle, provided they are framed around fairness, contribution and time spent in the UK, rather than headline migration numbers alone.
“However, support becomes more conditional when those changes are applied retrospectively to people already living and working in the UK.
“Here, opinion is far more finely balanced, particularly among past Labour voters, reflecting unease about changing the rules mid-stream.
“It’s also notable how many people sit on the fence.
“Across these questions, sizable minorities say they neither support nor oppose the proposals, or simply don’t know.
“That level of uncertainty suggests these issues are not firmly settled in the public mind and could reflect the technical nature of the changes.”
BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,507 GB adults between 25 and 26 March. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
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