How Houthi attack on Israel may shape Iran war – and push Trump to a ceasefire ...Middle East

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Yemen’s Houthis rebel group launched missile strikes on Israel as they formally joined the Iran war, marking a dangerous expansion of the conflict.

The Iranian-backed rebel group, which has controlled Sanaa, Yemen’s capital city, since 2014, said the attack was in retaliation for Israeli strikes on infrastructure in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon.

The move comes after the Israel Defense Force killed Houthi prime minister Ahmed al Rahawi in Sanaa, the highest ranking Houthi official to die since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.

Greater US escalation or increased pressure to end the war

The Houthi strikes may force the United States to reconsider its military posture in the region and either ramp up strikes to support Israel, or seek diplomatic options as the conflict risks spiralling further out of control.

But any retaliation risks drawing the US deeper into a broader regional war, potentially replicating the consequences of the Iraq conflict while increasing growing unrest among Trump’s supporters.

“These attacks could lead to Trump calling on US allies to help secure shipping lanes, but I’m not sure it’s likely to increase the likelihood that these allies will agree to supporting the US in this way,” said Dr Christopher Featherstone, associate lecturer at the University of York told The i Paper.

“US domestic opposition to the conflict is increasing, and pressure is on the Trump administration in advance of the midterms.

“Equally, splits within the MAGA movement are on show again, with Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Green both expressing opposition to the attacks on Iran.”

Trump’s approval rating fell in recent days to its lowest point since he returned to the White House with 61 per cent of Americans disapproving of the strikes, according to a Reuters-Ipsos poll released on 24 March.

In the same poll, Trump’s disapproval rating has surged to 62 per cent – the highest since he took office.

Amid growing domestic backlash, Trump has indicated his desire to wind down the war on Iran, saying he decided to suspend a new attack on Iran for five days as both sides were making “major progress” in reaching a deal to end the conflict. The president has since extended his pledge to refrain from attacks on Iranian energy sites to 10 days.

But while US president says he wants end the war with Iran, Israel is preparing a major escalation of its conflict and has spread its attacks into Lebanon.

Wider threat to the region

The missile launch also demonstrates the Houthis’ growing reach beyond Yemen’s borders and to strike distant targets.

Yaniv Voller, senior lecturer in middle eastern politics at the University of Kent, told The i Paper: “The Houthis are close allies with Iran, partly due to religious ties, but primarily due to the Iranian support for their war against the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

“As the Iranian regime seems to have endured the attack, they [the Houthis] now have an even greater motivation to join and add to the regional pressures.”

The Houthis’ engagement could trigger a chain reaction. US military assets in the Gulf could be targeted which in response, may force Israel to expand its campaign against Iranian proxies across the region.

Thousands of people gather at Sabeen Square, under the control of the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, to protest the killing of Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei in Sanaa, on 6 March (Photo: Mohammed Hamoud/Anadolu via Getty Images)

“By attacking Israel, the Houthis also ease the pressure on Iran and allow it to use more of its missiles and drones against other targets, mainly in the Gulf,” said Voller.

Spike in oil prices as Arabian Gulf becomes unusable

The conflict’s expansion has immediate further economic consequences.

The Houthis have previously struck shipping in the Red Sea and may now target global oil flows in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, known as the ‘Gate of Tears’.

In tandem, the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closed by Iran, and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait see approximately 30 per cent of global oil flows pass through them.

Although shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb has fallen since 2023, any disruption would cause increased nervousness in the markets and push up already high insurance costs.

With the Strait of Hormuz already a major geopolitical chokehold in US-Iran tensions, additional Houthi strikes could compound regional instability and worsen the likelihood of oil transportation in the region.

Houthi militants in Yemen (Photo: Mohammed Hamoud/Anadolu/ Getty)

Other proxies activated

The Houthis’ move also raises the question of other Iranian-backed proxies joining the war. Tehran has cultivated a network of groups across the region, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to militias in Iraq, with the potential to widen the conflict.

“Iran has relied on proxies to extend their influence in the region, and consider them as key to their security. The US has included a call for Iran to end their support for proxies as a key point in their peace proposal,” said Dr Featherstone.

He said the Houthis’ attack will likely increase the Trump administration’s emphasis on ending their use of proxies in the peace plan, but also has the potential to increase the strikes.

“Increases in attacks will likely also increase the fear US allies in the region are feeling, and increase the pressure on the Trump admin to reach a ceasefire,” Dr Featherstone added.

Houthi leaders have warned that any hostile operations against Iran in the Red Sea or elsewhere will prompt a swift response. The risk of drone strikes, missile attacks or sabotage on strategic maritime infrastructure is high.

As the war in the Middle East spreads, so do the stakes for regional powers and the US. With shipping threatened, oil prices at risk of surging and multiple proxies potentially activated, the conflict could spiral into a wider conflict.

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