The UK could face medicine shortages in “a few weeks” if the war in Iran continues, some industry experts have said.
Experts have raised concerns that the ongoing conflict affecting key transport routes could begin to affect the flow of medicines into Britain. The war has already disrupted the supply of crucial raw materials including crop fertiliser, helium, gas and oil.
Brent crude oil hit more than $110 a barrel this week as ships continue to remain stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, surging gas prices have provoked fears that energy bills in the UK could exceed £2,000.
Pharmaceutical supply chains are also heavily dependent on international shipping and air freight, with ingredients and medicines often produced overseas, including in India, which produces around 20 per cent of the world’s generic medicines.
Although half of the UK’s medicines are made domestically, a third comes from India and a portion from the EU.
Global supply chains under pressure
Disruptions to major air routes and shipping lanes has already forced companies to reroute deliveries, hiking costs and delays.
If the conflict drags on then medicine shortages could emerge in only a few weeks’ time, Mark Samuels, chief executive of Medicines UK, a company representing manufacturers of the cheap drugs known as generics which account for 85 per cent of medications used by the NHS, told The Guardian.
“We’re not in a crisis currently but it’s still a serious situation,” he said.
Medicine supplies typically hold between six and eight weeks of stock providing a buffer against short-term disruption, but prolonged delays to shipments could begin to empty reserves and may result in shortages in a few weeks’ time Mr Samuels added.
Gareth Jones, director of external affairs at the National Pharmacy Association, told The i Paper: “This is an uncertain and fast evolving situation.
“Pharmacies are alarmed by events in the middle east and we urge the government to closely monitor what the impact this could have on the nation’s medicine supplies.
“Although we’re unaware of immediate disruption to medicines, prolonged blockades could have to potential to lead to supply problems.”
Middle East conflict disrupts distribution
Rising transport costs are also adding pressure to the supply chain of medicines. Air freight prices have surged while some pharmaceutical companies have diverted to sea routes, increasing shipping times.
Shipping accounts for the majority of medicine transport to the UK and have been severely impacted by disruption in the Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Major carriers such as Maersk have temporarily suspended operations in the UAE and imposed an emergency surcharge as firms reroute around Africa, adding time and cost to deliveries.
“The medicines supply chain is a complex and global one and we know that world events have in the past compounded existing medicine shortages,” Jones added.
Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from near the border with Oman (Photo: Stringer/Reuters)David Weeks, the Texas-based director of supply chain risk management at the analytics group Moody’s, said: “It’s the perfect storm. We have the conflict in the Gulf that caused the strait of Hormuz to shut down, and India is known as the pharmacy of the world.
“They produce a lot of the generic [off-patent] drugs and APIs [active pharmaceutical ingredients]. With the geopolitical situation, it’s harder and harder to get those out.”
Medication in short supply
Drugs including blood pressure medication, painkillers and antidepressants are already impacted by the supply issues, Dr Leyla Hannbeck, CEO of the Independent Pharmacies Association, told The Sun.
There was a shortage of paracetamol and other painkillers in Britain during the coronavirus pandemic when providers in India, which produces 60 per cent of generic medicines used globally and half of US supplies, struggled to keep up with demand.
There are around 14,000 medicines licensed in the UK and the overwhelming majority are in good supply, a spokesperson for the Department for Health and Social Care said.
“There are currently no reported medicine shortages as a result of conflict in the Middle East. We continue to monitor the situation closely for any impacts on the medical supply chain,” a government spokesperson said.
“The department actively monitors emerging threats to supply resilience and have established processes in place to manage disruption across the health and social care sector.”
The government said they are domestically enhancing the UK’s manufacturing capability to mitigate cross-cutting risks to medical supply chains.
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