Sometimes Maybe Good, Sometimes Maybe… Not: Inconsistent Italy Face Make‑or‑Break Week in World Cup Qualification Quest ...Middle East

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Italy have won four FIFA World Cup titles, but haven’t played a knockout game in the competition since they last lifted the famous trophy in 2006. They haven’t even qualified for the last two editions, so can they finally get back there in 2026?

For many of us, the idea of a World Cup without Italy doesn’t really compute.

They won the second and third editions of the tournament in 1934 and 1938, and qualified for all but one World Cup from then until 2018, the only exception being 1958. The iconic blue is a staple of the history of the famous competition.

Between 1978 and 2006, when they last won it, Italy reached the knockout stage of eight consecutive World Cups.

However, they failed to make it past the group stage in both 2010 and 2014, and failed to qualify at all for the 2018 and 2022 tournaments. In fact, there is a very real risk that reminiscing about Italy at World Cups will make you seem quite old.

Anyone under the age of 20 hasn’t seen Italy play in a World Cup knockout game, while anyone under 12 won’t have seen them play in a World Cup at all (unless they were parked in front of the TV as a baby).

The last time Italy played in a World Cup game was June 2014, losing 1-0 to Uruguay in the group stage to finish third behind the South Americans and Costa Rica.

They lost to Sweden in the qualification play-offs for the 2018 tournament, and then, more shockingly, to North Macedonia in the 2022 play-offs.

It was a particular surprise that they failed to qualify in 2022, not just because they lost at home to North Macedonia, but because they did so as champions of Europe. Italy were excellent on their way to winning Euro 2020 (held in 2021 due to the Covid pandemic), and looked well-placed to return to former glories, or at the very least, appear at the 2022 World Cup. Thanks to North Macedonia, they didn’t.

We’re not sure if ‘third time’s the charm’ is a popular idiom in Italy, but they’ll certainly be hoping it is at least accurate.

Yet again, the Azzurri failed to win their World Cup qualifying group, and so to reach the expanded 2026 tournament, they will need to beat Northern Ireland, and then either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina in the UEFA play-offs.

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In fairness, Italy didn’t do badly in their group; they just came up against a relentless Erling-Haaland-led Norway side that won all eight of their games. Italy did at least win their other six, but that was only enough for a play-off spot.

Things got off to a dreadful start for them, losing 3-0 in Norway. Luciano Spalletti announced prior to his final game as manager three days later, a 2-0 home win against Moldova, that he had been informed he was being relieved of his position.

Gennaro Gattuso was named as his replacement, which was an interesting choice. The former Italy midfielder played in the side that won the 2006 World Cup, and the hope was that he could bring the spirit and hope back to an Azzurri side that was sorely lacking in both.

Italy’s Gennaro Gattuso lifts the World Cup trophy after the 2006 final (PATRICK HERTZOG/AFP via Getty Images)

The 48-year-old has had a somewhat inconsistent managerial career to date, taking charge of 10 different clubs in just 12 years between 2013 and 2025 in six different countries.

There is a famous clip of Gattuso when he was manager of OFI Crete, animatedly saying that the Greek team were “sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe s—!”

That is also a fairly accurate, albeit crude, description that could arguably be applied to the Italian national team in recent years.

However, Gattuso had the required immediate impact, with Italy thrashing Estonia 5-0 in his first game in charge. There were some concerns when the game in Bergamo was still 0-0 at half-time, but the hosts hit their stride in the second period after Moise Kean scored the first goal of the Gattuso era.

Three days later, they hit five again, though in a very different contest. A topsy-turvy game against Israel in Hungary ended with Sandro Tonali scoring a dramatic stoppage-time winner in a 5-4 success for Italy.

They beat Estonia (3-1) and Israel (3-0) again, before two late goals in Moldova made it five wins from five for the new boss.

When exciting youngster Francesco Pio Esposito gave Italy an early lead at home to Norway in their final qualifier, it really felt like Italy were on the rise once more, only for the game to end 4-1 to the visitors after a chastening second half for Gattuso’s men at San Siro.

There was clearly still plenty of work to do, and the biggest test of how far they have come will be this week’s play-offs.

Gattuso went with an old-school 4-4-2 setup in his first two games in charge, before changing between three- and four-at-the-back formations in his next four. He has shown himself to be a tactically flexible coach, but he insisted at a press conference on Monday that the play-offs will be more about the mental side of things.

“We must be able to make the players feel lighter,” he told ​reporters. “Italy didn’t play in the last two World Cups… but there is no need to suffocate them. These are players who have won the Euros and played in Champions League ​finals. They are accustomed to these games.

“There are no excuses; we must only think about ​Thursday’s game. We must have the right mentality and serenity.”

For those who still associate Italian football with defending and little else, Gattuso has made his side attack with verve since his appointment in June 2025. In that time, only Portugal (150) and Belgium (143) attempted more shots in UEFA World Cup qualifiers than them (140), though they perhaps need to get into better positions before letting fly. No team that attempted at least 100 shots in qualifying in that time had a lower average xG per shot than Italy (0.11).

To finally get back to the World Cup, Italy must win two games over the international break, firstly against Northern Ireland in Bergamo on Thursday. They have a solid record in this tie, winning all seven of their home games against Northern Ireland by an aggregate score of 16-2, keeping six clean sheets.

Usually, the fact they are at home would be almost a guarantee of success for Italy. They went 59 World Cup qualifiers unbeaten on home soil between 1934 and 2021. However, with their shock defeat to North Macedonia in the 2022 play-offs and their 4-1 loss to Norway last time out, they have now lost two of their last five World Cup qualifiers at home (W3).

Even if they do get past Michael O’Neill’s side, they will then need to travel to either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina a few days later. It will be a time for bravery and nerve.

Helpfully for such occasions, Gattuso does have winning experience alongside him in the dugout in Leonardo Bonucci. The former Juventus and Milan centre-back was a big part of his country’s success at Euro 2020, scoring the equalising goal against England in the final, and converting his penalty in the shootout.

Leonardo Bonucci (L) and Gennaro Gattuso (R) during Italy’s 2026 World Cup qualifier against Israel. (Photo by Marco Iacobucci/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Gattuso already has the building blocks in place for a consistent team. Six players have started five of his six games in charge: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Federico Dimarco, Tonali, Nicolò Barella and Mateo Retegui. The latter has a remarkable nine goal involvements in those six games under Gattuso, with five goals and four assists.

Along with Kean (four goals in three games) and Esposito (three goals in five), Gattuso has goalscorers at his disposal in a way Italy haven’t for a while.

Since the qualifiers for the 2006 tournament, only Ciro Immobile has scored more goals for Italy in a World Cup qualifying campaign (six goals in 12 games for the 2018 World Cup) than Retegui’s five in eight games in this one.

Many questions have been asked about Italy’s drop-off in recent times, and there are a number of possible reasons for it. One could be a comparative scarcity in options.

Of players who have made at least 10 appearances in one of Europe’s top five leagues this season, only 142 have been of Italian affiliation. Compare that to 20 years ago, when there were almost double the amount of Italian players in Europe’s top five leagues (280 with 10+ games played in 2005-06), meaning then-manager Marcello Lippi had a lot more options to choose from than Gattuso does. Obviously, that 2005-06 total is based on a full season, so this season’s number could well go up a bit by the end of the 2025-26 campaign.

Having said all that, while 142 is fewer than the respective numbers for Spain (274) and France (201), it is not far behind Germany (151) and is actually more than England (128), who are one of the favourites to win the World Cup.

It is a massive week for Italian football. Northern Ireland will be hoping to stop them like Sweden and North Macedonia did, while Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina would be far from easy opponents if the Azzurri get that far.

If Gattuso can guide them to the World Cup for the first time in 12 years, though, he will earn a special place in the hearts of fans across the country.

And just think of the soundbite possibilities over the summer…

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Sometimes Maybe Good, Sometimes Maybe… Not: Inconsistent Italy Face Make‑or‑Break Week in World Cup Qualification Quest Opta Analyst.

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