Donald Trump has long thought, despite abundant evidence to the contrary, that wars are easy to end. He seems to sincerely believe that he has ended at least eight of them in the second term of his presidency – even claiming that the ceasefire he negotiated in Gaza secured peace in the Middle East “for the first time in 3,000 years”.
That Trump has found himself at war in the Middle East just months after making that audacious claim is perhaps as telling about the gap between hyperbole and the realities of peacemaking as anything could be.
US and Israeli action against Iran has brought the global economy to the precipice of disaster, not least because Iran has blocked the vital Strait of Hormuz in response to the attacks. If normal passage does not resume soon, the world will face shortages of oil, gas and petrol – but also vital commodities like aluminium, fertiliser and even helium (essential for operating MRI scanners and other industrial uses).
This war needs to actually end, and soon. The problem is that Trump seems to have no plan to do so. In the space of hours, he jumps from claiming the war is already won, to demanding allies reopen the Strait of Hormuz, to threatening Iran’s civilian infrastructure, to saying peace talks are going brilliantly.
Trump’s erratic approach is made even more difficult by an apparent lack of coordination with Israel, which seems to have its own distinct goals and strategy for the conflict. As if all of that wasn’t complex enough, it isn’t even necessarily clear who is meaningfully running Iran at present, and who is able to actually negotiate and deliver on the results of any talks.
Against that backdrop, the re-emergence of one man in Donald Trump’s administration is suddenly interesting. After weeks of uncharacteristic public invisibility, Vice President JD Vance is suddenly back in the headlines, reportedly because he’s been involved behind the scenes in negotiations with Iran. Some reports even suggest Vance will travel to Pakistan later this week to continue the talks in person.
Vance has been a belligerent figure on the world stage during Trump’s administration. He was instrumental to the attempted public humiliation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office last year. He insulted the USA’s European allies at the Munich Security Conference. Vance is hardly a beloved figure on the world’s stage, and nor is he known for building bridges.
Still, perhaps for the first time in his life, Vance’s presence might be a hopeful sign for the prospects of peace, for two reasons. The first is that Vance is a committed American isolationist.
In his pursuit of power, Vance – who once likened Trump to Adolf Hitler – has seemingly thrown out virtually any principle that didn’t suit his purposes or advance his cause. The one that he’s stuck with, at least so far, has been an almost blanket opposition to US adventures overseas, or any sense that the USA should be the world’s policeman.
Trump’s sudden appetite for overseas adventures has not extended to his Vice President, who has generally made himself scarce. Those isolationist instincts have proven nightmarish for Ukraine and those who would like to support its continued struggle to remain an independent and free nation. But when it comes to Iran, the instinct is helpful.
The second instinct is even more base. Put simply, Vance has almost no hope of being selected as the Republican nominee for president if the Iran war does not end soon. The Maga base hates overseas conflicts, and virtually all American voters hate cost of living crises.
However much Vance opposes the war behind the scenes, he is part of this administration. If the effects of this conflict aren’t a forgotten blip by primary season – which begins next year – Vance’s hopes of becoming president are over. Vance needs this war to end purely out of sheer self-interest. He would not be surfacing now unless he thought he had a chance of making this happen.
Trump is battling conflicting impulses. Part of him clearly wants the war to end, as he does not want to have to deal with spiralling costs and economic crises. Despite his claims otherwise, he is clearly afraid of extended ground deployments of troops. He would like an out. But at the same time, he doesn’t want to lose face – he cannot accept claims that he’s “lost” this conflict.
One result of this is bizarre claims from his administration that opening the Strait of Hormuz – which had never been closed until this war began – is an aim of this war. “Solving” a problem he caused would be a very Trumpian resolution.
Still, Vance might represent the best chance of this conflict ending any time soon, leading onlookers around the world into the uncomfortable and unfamiliar position of rooting for his success – another bizarre byproduct of the Trump administration. JD Vance is almost nobody’s idea of a hero. But he might be what America deserves right now.
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