After handling their respective first-round match-ups, the Tennessee Volunteers and Virginia Cavaliers are set to meet in the NCAA Tournament’s second round for a spot in the Sweet 16, facing the winner of Kentucky and Iowa State.
The Vols will be looking to punch their fourth consecutive ticket to the regional semis under legendary head coach Rick Barnes, while the Cavaliers will be looking to get back to the second weekend in March Madness for the first time since their National Championship-winning run in 2019.
ESPN Analytics released its prediction for how this ACC vs. SEC clash will play out, and its model produced a rather surprising outcome given the seeding of both programs.
As of this writing, the model gives a pretty significant edge to lower-seeded Tennessee, giving the No. 6 Volunteers a 60.5% chance to pull off the upset over the No. 3-seeded Cavaliers.
Virginia, who entered the tournament ranked No. 9 in the AP Poll, cruised through their regular season slate and advanced all the way to the ACC Tournament finals before losing to Duke in a very close contest.
Tennessee, by contrast, struggled for large stretches of its regular season schedule and entered the tourney on a 2-4 skid that included a 15-point loss in the SEC quarterfinals against Vanderbilt.
Virginia seemed to struggle at times with Wright State in the first round, while Tennessee blew Miami (Ohio) out of the gym, so that could play into the model’s preference for the Vols. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out as both squads battle for the right to advance to the Sweet 16 next weekend.
In case you’re wondering, here’s a look at the odds for Tennessee to advance to the Sweet 16 on Sunday, via Kalshi:
Prediction Markets Tennessee vs. Virginia Winner? Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Tennessee 52% Virginia 50% PredictESPN Analytics predicts winner of Tennessee vs. Virginia Saturday Down South.
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