Oil prices have surged to their highest levels in 18 months as the war in the Middle East chokes off supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up petrol and diesel costs for British drivers and raising questions about the UK’s energy security.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the disruption is the largest in the history of the global oil market and urged governments to take emergency action to reduce demand.
In the UK, officials at the Department for Transport are working with the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) on contingency plans ranging from lower motorway speed limits to petrol rationing, The Guardian has reported.
The Government has insisted there is no shortage of fuel in the UK.
But with household energy bills expected to rise sharply from July, the question of how exposed Britain is to the crisis – and what the Government could do about it – is becoming increasingly pressing.
So what would actually happen if Britain faced a serious oil shortage?
The watchdog’s warning
The IEA, the Paris-based energy watchdog, published a 10-point plan of emergency demand-reduction measures this week, describing the situation as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
Its executive director, Fatih Birol, said that without a swift resolution to the conflict, “the impacts on energy markets and economies are set to become more and more severe”.
The IEA’s recommendations include working from home where possible, reducing motorway speed limits by at least 10km/h (around 6mph), restricting private cars from city centres through schemes encouraging car-pooling and public transport.
Another option cited was number-plate rotation schemes where, for exampled, odd-numbered plates are given access on some days and even-numbered plates on others.
It also advised governments to discourage air travel, amid warnings of a global shortage of jet fuel.
Slowing down the roads
A Government source told The Guardian that several of the levers most likely to be pulled would come from the Department for Transport, with a motorway speed reduction of up to 10mph among the options under consideration.
Fuel consumption falls at lower speeds, and the measure would be straightforward to implement.
Electronic variable signage already adjusts speed limits on major routes, and parts of England have previously used tighter limits to cut emissions – including holding traffic on the M6 near Birmingham to 60mph.
Restricting city driving
The IEA also proposed limiting which cars can enter cities on specific days, based on whether their number plate is odd or even – a measure that has been previously used in cities like Paris, Delhi and Athens to cut air pollution.
The UK has the technical infrastructure to enforce such a scheme, with Transport for London operating 1,500 number plate recognition cameras.
However, a spokesperson said the organisation does not currently have the legal powers to implement a rotation scheme and that any policy would require “considerable technical work and time”.
Downing Street has already pushed back against the IEA’s broader recommendations, saying Britons “should continue to go about their days in a normal fashion”.
Rationing at the pump
The UK’s national emergency plan for fuel shortages, last updated by DESNZ in 2024, sets out what would happen in a more severe scenario.
Critical service vehicles would receive priority access to fuel, and ministers would direct supplies to keep public transport running.
Private drivers would face restrictions on how much fuel they could buy per filling station visit, and pumps could be closed overnight.
In an extreme scenario, the Government has the power to allocate how crude oil and other imported oil products are distributed across the UK entirely.
These measures would only be activated in a severe national shortage. The IEA’s demand-reduction steps are designed to prevent the situation from reaching that point.
How worried should drivers be?
It is not expected that a fuel crisis is imminent. DESNZ has stressed that imports are continuing normally and that fuel retailers are advising customers to fill up as usual.
More than half of the UK’s imported crude oil comes from the US and Norway, and last year refinery production of petrol exceeded demand.
What is far more likely than rationing, in the near term, is a sustained rise in energy costs similar to that seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The RAC said petrol prices were already up 9 per cent since the conflict began, with diesel up 17 per cent – adding £6.40 to a typical fill of unleaded and £13 on diesel.
Cornwall Insight, the energy consultancy, has forecast the Ofgem energy price cap could rise to £1,972 per year in the July to September period, up from £1,641 for April to June – an increase of around £330 for a typical household.
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