We look ahead to Sunday’s Tyne-Wear derby with our Newcastle vs Sunderland prediction and preview. Which of the north-east rivals will end the weekend with the better league position?
Newcastle vs Sunderland: The Key Stats
Newcastle United are pegged as favourites for this match, with Eddie Howe’s side taking all three points in 60.8% of the pre-match simulations. The Magpies are, however, winless in their last five home matches against Sunderland (D2 L3) ahead of what will be their first meeting at St. James’ Park since 2016. Following their 1-0 win at Leeds earlier this month, Sunderland are aiming to pick up consecutive away victories in the Premier League for the first time since May 2014.In football, there are some defeats that simply cost three points, and then there are defeats that carry the potential to derail a team’s entire season.
Newcastle United and Eddie Howe experienced the latter on Wednesday night as they were comprehensively eliminated from the Champions League round of 16 by Barcelona.
The Magpies were dismantled 7-2 in the second leg at the Camp Nou, completing an 8-3 aggregate defeat that brought their European campaign to a heavy end.
Howe’s side must now quickly shift focus to the Premier League, where the race for European qualification is heating up. Newcastle currently sit ninth, trailing fifth-placed Liverpool by seven points with eight matches remaining.
However, if they were hoping for a gentler return to domestic action, Sunday’s fixture offers little relief.
Newcastle are winless in their last five Premier League home Tyne-Wear derbies (D2 L3), with this weekend marking the first at St. James’ Park since a 1-1 draw in March 2016.
Goals have also been scarce for the Magpies in this fixture. They have scored just once across their last six league meetings with Sunderland, while their last clean sheet came in August 2011.
Sunderland, meanwhile, can draw confidence from their 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture back in December.
But that game, decided by a Nick Woltemade own goal, was hardly a showcase of attacking quality. The match produced just 0.54 combined expected goals (xG) from 11 shots – 0.30 xG from Sunderland’s five attempts and 0.24 xG from Newcastle’s six.
This is the second-lowest combined xG in a Premier League match on record, behind only Bournemouth vs Burnley in December 2019 (0.30 xG), and the lowest combined shot total in a match since the start of the 2023-24 season.
Régis Le Bris’ side come into this match on the back of a 1-0 defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion, leaving them 13th in the table, with an outside chance of pushing toward the European places.
Sunderland won their last away match 1-0 at Leeds United and will be looking to secure consecutive away top-flight victories for the first time since May 2014, while they last did so without conceding in October 1999.
Despite their European disappointment, Newcastle may still take belief from their recent league form. Anthony Gordon scored the only goal in a 1-0 win at Chelsea last time out, following their late 2-1 victory over Manchester United.
The Magpies have not recorded a 100% winning month in the Premier League (minimum three matches) since November 2018, when they won all three of their fixtures.
Newcastle’s task could be complicated by Sunderland’s resilience this season. Only Brighton (eight – W3 D5) have avoided defeat more often after conceding the opening goal than the Black Cats (seven – W4 D3).
Sunderland are also one of three Premier League teams yet to lose when scoring first this season (W6 D4), along with Manchester United (W12 D6) and Nottingham Forest (W5 D2).
Furthermore, only Aston Villa (19) have won more points from losing positions than Sunderland (16), while only West Ham (20) have dropped more points from winning positions than the Magpies (19).
Howe may also feel a sense of personal motivation for this match. Following the 1-0 defeat in the reverse fixture, he could become the first Newcastle manager to lose both of his first two league Tyne-Wear derbies.
Le Bris, meanwhile, has a chance to become just the second Sunderland boss to win his first two league derbies against Newcastle after Gus Poyet did so 2013-14.
Newcastle vs Sunderland Head-to-Head
Newcastle have failed to win each of their last five matches against Sunderland at St. James’ Park (D2 L3) and will be hoping for a much-needed turn in fortunes, while the Black Cats are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League matches against Newcastle.
Le Bris’ side have also won seven of the last eight meetings between these two sides, marking the joint-longest unbeaten run either side has enjoyed in the history of the fixture, equalling Newcastle’s run of 10 between 1985 and 1997.
The Magpies are also searching for their first Premier League victory over Sunderland since a 1-0 victory at the Stadium of Light in August 2011.
Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction
Home advantage is set to play a major role in Sunday’s Tyne-Wear derby, with Newcastle pegged as favourites to take all three points according to the Opta supercomputer.
The Magpies won 60.8% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, while Sunderland prevailed just 18.6% of the time. Meanwhile, a draw emerged as the outcome in 20.6% of the simulations.
Newcastle vs Sunderland Predicted Lineups
Newcastle United: Aaron Ramsdale, Tino Livramento, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Lewis Hall, Joe Willock, Joelinton, Nick Woltemade, Jacob Murphy, Harvey Barnes, Anthony Gordon.
Head coach: Eddie Howe
Sunderland: Melker Ellborg, Luke O’Nien, Lutsharel Geertruida, Omar Alderete, Trai Hume, Noah Sadiki, Granit Xhaka, Chris Rigg, Habib Diarra, Chemsdine Talbi, Brian Brobbey.
Head coach: Régis Le Bris
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction: Can Either Rival Boost European Hopes With Tyne-Wear Derby Victory? Opta Analyst.
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