It’s finally time for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
As part of the lead-in to Thursday, I’ll be surveying some of the most interesting NCAA Tournament props on Kalshi.
Today’s question: Will any 15- or 16-seed win a Round of 64 game?
Prediction Markets #15 or #16 seed to win a game in the Round of 64 Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi No 88% Yes 13% PredictThere are 2 angles we can use to solve this. The latter is better than the former, but we’ll use both.
First, the quicker data point: History.
Over the last 25 NCAA Tournaments (since 2000 but excluding 2020), 15- and 16-seeds are a combined 10-190. That’s good for a winning percentage of just 5% over the last quarter century.
It’s perhaps worth noting that most of those wins are clustered between 2012 and 2023. All but 1 to be exact, with the exception being a lone win for those seeds way back in 2001. If you only consider games since 2012, the winning percentage spikes to 8.7% (9-95).
So according to recent history, we can say the expected winning percentage for these seeds is somewhere between 5% and 8.7%.
Moving on. The next way we can approximate the right pick for this Kalshi prop is through implied probabilities with money lines. NCAA Tournament betting markets are efficient, so using the money lines to determine win likelihood will get us to a reasonable place.
Here are the (de-vigged) implied probabilities derived from DraftKings money lines:
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