Polymarket says it has banned several users and will share their information with authorities after bettors allegedly issued threats against a journalist whose reporting affected a high-stakes wager tied to an Iranian missile strike.
The cryptocurrency-based prediction market posted a statement on X denouncing the behavior. The company said it “condemns the harassment & threats directed at Emanuel Fabian — or anyone else for that matter.” It added that such conduct “violates our Terms of Service & has no place on our platform,” and said it had “banned the accounts for all involved & will pass their info to the relevant authorities.”
Polymarket condemns the harassment & threats directed at Emanuel Fabian — or anyone else for that matter.This behavior violates our Terms of Service & has no place on our platform. We've banned the accounts for all involved & will pass their info to the relevant authorities.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 16, 2026Emanuel Fabian, a military correspondent for The Times of Israel had published a report about a missile launched from Iran that struck an open area near the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh. However, Fabian says he became the target of harassment from people who had placed bets tied to the event.
According to the journalist, his routine wartime reporting quickly spiraled into something far more disturbing. “What I thought was a seemingly minor incident during the war has turned into days of harassment and death threats,” he said.
The threats have drawn attention to the risks journalists can face while covering war, as well as the increasingly controversial role of prediction markets that allow users to wager on real-world events.
High-stakes Polymarket bet tied to report that prompted threats
The Polymarket contract had asked whether Iran would strike Israel on March 10. Users poured millions of dollars into the market, buying and selling shares that reflected their expectations about whether such an attack would occur.
Rules displayed on a Polymarket prediction market defining how bets resolve on whether Iran strikes Israel. Credit: PolymarketUnder the market’s rules, the bet would resolve based on whether a strike actually happened. Fabian’s report, which relied on information from rescue services and video footage showing a missile explosion, indicated that a missile had indeed landed in Israeli territory. The strike caused no injuries, but the detail was enough to influence how the market would ultimately settle.
Some bettors who stood to lose money allegedly tried to pressure him to change the story so it suggested the missile had been intercepted instead. Messages sent to the reporter reportedly ranged from attempts to persuade him to edit the article to outright threats.
One message warned:
You have two choices: either believe that we have the capabilities, and after you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you.
Fabian said he refused to alter the reporting and has since filed a complaint with Israeli police. Authorities are now investigating the threats.
A single article describing events on the ground apparently had $14 million riding on it.
Political backlash grows in Washington
The controversy quickly spilled into the political arena in the US, where lawmakers are already debating how prediction markets should be regulated.
Sen. Chris Murphy reacted to the threats by calling for an outright ban on markets that allow people to wager on government actions or geopolitical developments. Writing on X, he said: “We need to end prediction markets for government action. NOW.”
We need to end prediction markets for government action. NOW. This bone chilling story about a reporter’s life threatened bc he simply reported on Iran missile strikes:“After you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you.” t.co/dlcp9AzkJr
— Chris Murphy (@ChrisMurphyCT) March 16, 2026Murphy and several other senators have also urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to crack down on so-called “death contracts,” prediction market bets tied to events such as assassinations or deaths of public figures. Critics argue that markets built around violent outcomes could create perverse incentives or encourage manipulation.
The discourse has intensified as platforms like Polymarket and the regulated US exchange Kalshi continue experimenting with new contracts linked to real-world events.
Even before the threats against Fabian surfaced, prediction markets were already facing heightened scrutiny.
Polymarket recently pulled a controversial contract that allowed users to bet on an explosive SpaceX Artemis launch scenario after critics warned the market could encourage reckless speculation around a major space mission. The company removed the market following public backlash.
Other incidents have raised additional concerns about how inside information could influence wagers. In one case reported by Israeli authorities, an Israeli reservist and a civilian were charged over an alleged scheme to use classified military information to place bets on Polymarket contracts.
Questions about insider knowledge have also appeared in other geopolitical markets. A Polymarket contract tied to the political future of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro drew attention after traders cashed out large positions early, eliciting speculation that some may have had access to privileged information about political developments.
Similar turbulence has surfaced on competing platforms as well. On Kalshi, a market tied to speculation about Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly experienced sharp price swings. In the end, the company was forced to repay wagers due to reportedly unclear guidelines and criticism over contracts tied to death, which it swears it has no connection to.
Supporters of prediction markets argue that they can serve as useful forecasting tools. Because participants risk real money, proponents say the markets often aggregate information quickly and can provide accurate signals about likely outcomes.
But critics warn that attaching financial incentives to sensitive real-world events can create dangerous pressures. Even as far back as 2003, the Pentagon scrapped a controversial plan to create a “futures market” that would use market forces to help predict political upheaval in the Middle East, which Senate Democrats dubbed “gambling on terrorism.”
In this case, journalists, public officials, or even witnesses could face attempts at influence if their statements or actions determine how a market resolves.
Fabian’s experience has become a stark example of that tension.
For Polymarket, the company says the response is straightforward, which is to remove the offending users and cooperate with authorities investigating the threats. The question remains whether the US government will crackdown on these markets altogether, or whether it will continue to float these wagers in the periphery.
Featured image: Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian via X / Polymarket
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