Minnesota lawmakers are moving to outlaw prediction markets that let users trade on real-world events. A new proposal in the state Senate would make it a felony to run, promote, or help facilitate platforms where people place financial positions on outcomes such as sports games, elections, disasters, or even deaths. The bill, Senate File 4511, was introduced Monday (March 16) and immediately sent to the Senate Judiciary and Public Safety Committee for consideration.
The measure is sponsored by Sens. John Marty, Jordan Rasmusson, Mary Kunesh, Erin Maye Quade, and Matt Klein. Lawmakers wrote it as an amendment to Minnesota’s existing gambling statutes. The proposal rewrites part of the law defining what qualifies as a bet and then adds a new section aimed directly at prediction market platforms and related businesses.
Prediction markets face widening political scrutiny across the US amid new Minnesota proposal
Under the bill, a transaction would be illegal if its value “depends on the outcome of future events” tied to certain categories. These include athletic competitions, casino-style contests, political races, or events involving identifiable individuals or groups. Markets connected to wars, terrorism, disasters, public health emergencies, or deaths would also fall under the prohibition.
The legislation casts a wide net over companies involved in these platforms. The bill states: “Whoever allows, or maintains or operates a business, organization, or other entity that allows participants to place, enter, or execute wagers, bets, trades, contracts, or financial positions… is guilty of a felony if the transaction depends on the outcome of future events.”
The restrictions also extend to promotions or contests that award prizes based on performance or chance tied to those outcomes.
“According to attorney Daniel Wallach, an expert on prediction markets, state bills are ‘premature and counterproductive.’ Wallach said that the proposed law would “provide prediction markets with legal standing to sue MN in federal court and sidestep state enforcement remedies.” t.co/bUIGnLzYu8
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) March 15, 2026Advertising related to those products would face strict limits as well. The bill says it would be a felony under certain circumstances to create or distribute marketing materials promoting the prohibited transactions. The restrictions would apply to ads aired during daytime or evening broadcasts, spots placed during live sports coverage, or promotions appearing in media where at least ten percent of the audience is expected to be under 21. Additional rules would ban such ads on public property or within 500 feet of schools and playgrounds.
Companies that provide infrastructure for these markets could also be affected. Financial institutions, payment processors, geolocation services, media affiliates, and other vendors may face felony charges if they knowingly keep processing transactions tied to illegal prediction markets after receiving a cease-and-desist notice from the state attorney general.
The Minnesota proposal arrives as prediction markets are drawing new attention in Washington. Recent federal discussions have included legislation aimed at banning so-called “death betting” markets and other contracts tied to assassinations or mass casualty events. Lawmakers in Congress have also floated bipartisan proposals targeting prediction markets tied to wars, elections, and sporting events, while another measure would block federal officials from participating in those markets to avoid conflicts of interest. In a separate effort, Nevada Rep. Dina Titus introduced the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act, which focuses on protecting athletic competition from financial products built around game outcomes.
If Minnesota lawmakers approve Senate File 4511, the new rules would take effect Aug. 1, 2026, and would apply to crimes committed on or after that date.
The bill still leaves room for some activities, such as pari-mutuel wagering on horse racing would remain legal under existing state law, and casual private bets between individuals that are not part of organized commercial gambling would continue to be allowed.
Anyone convicted under the proposed provision would also be barred from receiving a gaming-related license in the state for ten years.
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