The Kentucky Wildcats opened the college basketball season at No. 9 in the AP Poll. Their 78-65 exhibition win over preseason No. 1 Purdue had Big Blue Nation believing the Wildcats’ own ranking was a sign of what they crave most: a ninth NCAA championship banner. That slot did foreshadow what was to come for Kentucky… but not in the way fans hoped.
Instead of entering the NCAA Tournament as a contender for title number 9, the Wildcats finished ninth in the SEC. Their 21-13 (10-8) record earned them the No. 7 seed in the Midwest region and a matchup with No. 10 seed Santa Clara.
The talent of this Kentucky team isn’t really up for debate; you don’t spend a reported $22 million on a roster devoid of skill. But for one reason or another, this team hasn’t clicked, particularly against the nation’s best squads. This is its last chance to do so. And if it doesn’t, you can bet Mark Pope’s rump will be feeling the heat of a mid-July day going into 2026-27.
Here’s how far Saturday Down South predicts Kentucky will advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament:
Round 1: No. 10 Santa Clara (in St. Louis)
Record: 26-8 (15-3 WCC); KenPom: +19.40 (35th); NET Rank: 40th
Best Wins: Saint Mary’s (twice), McNeese ; Worst Losses: Loyola Chicago, Arizona State
It’s rare to see the West Coast Conference send 3 teams to the Big Dance. With Gonzaga headed to the Pac-12, it may never do so again. But the Broncos managed to earn a tournament berth for the first time since 1996, courtesy of 2 victories over Saint Mary’s (their only 2 Quad 1 wins).
Head coach Herb Sendek, in his 10th year at Santa Clara, has now taken 5 different schools to the NCAA Tournament. The Broncos feature 3 double-digit scorers, led by Christian Hammond (15.8 PPG), and have a 9-man rotation. Forward Allen Graves (6-foot-9) has scored 10-plus points in 17 of 18 games since Jan. 4 and poses a real matchup problem for Kentucky on the perimeter.
The Wildcats have the talent advantage and a size advantage on the inside, thanks to their depth in the frontcourt. They also are playing in St. Louis, roughly a 5-hour drive from Lexington. If Santa Clara’s 23rd-ranked offense (KenPom) gets going, and the Broncos’ wings overwhelm Kentucky’s guards, the Wildcats could easily lose this game. But the proximity to campus — and the home-court advantage that comes with BBN’s presence — should get them through a tight Friday contest.
PREDICTION: Kentucky 79, Santa Clara 75
Round 2: No. 2 Iowa State
Record: 27-7 (12-6 Big 12); KenPom: +32.42 (6th); NET Rank: 7
Best Wins: St. John’s, Purdue, Kansas, Houston; Worst Losses: Cincinnati, TCU
The Cyclones may have played the game of the year vs. Arizona in the Big 12 semifinals. That result was heartbreaking for TJ Otzelberger’s team, but they’re not hanging their heads with the NCAA Tournament on the horizon.
Iowa State beat St. John’s on a neutral court, blew out Purdue on the road (81-58) and knocked off Kansas and Houston in a 3-day span in mid-February. Their fanbase is one of the best in the sport, and it’s accustomed to traveling to St. Louis, where the Big 12 Tournament just took place.
Kentucky is 0-5 vs. KenPom top-10 teams with an average margin of defeat of 15.2 points (26 points in 2 matchups not against Florida). The Cyclones boast a top-25 offense, top-5 defense and could have the fan advantage. Winning this game would be an extreme change of pace for the Wildcats, who may not get by Santa Clara in the first place. They’ve not shown enough to inspire anyone that they can get out of the Show-Me State without being shown the door.
PREDICTION: Iowa State 83, Kentucky 69
Will Kentucky advance to the Sweet 16? Here’s what the Kalshi market says:
Prediction Markets Teams to make the Sweet 16? Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Florida 81% Gonzaga 60% Arkansas 57% Alabama 57% Vanderbilt 57% Virginia 55% Tennessee 38% Ole Miss 12% PredictHow far will Kentucky advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Saturday Down South.
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