Arsenal hold a seven-point lead at the top of the Premier League. Manchester City have a game in hand to cut that to four. But which of the sides has the easiest run-in?
A seven-point lead. Eight games left to navigate. That is all that stands between Arsenal and their first Premier League title since 2003-04.
Chasing Manchester City have a game in hand, but with points on the board, the advantage is surely with the Gunners, isn’t it?
That raises an obvious question. How do their remaining fixtures compare? Who has the easier run-in and, ultimately, who should be favourites to lift the title?
Let’s run through five different ways to analyse that very question.
First, a quick reminder of the remaining schedules:
Arsenal:Everton (H), Bournemouth (H), Man City (A), Newcastle (H), Fulham (H), West Ham (A), Burnley (H), Crystal Palace (A)
Manchester City:West Ham (A), Crystal Palace (H), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Burnley (A), Everton (A), Brentford (H), Bournemouth (A), Aston Villa (H)
The Opta Power Rankings Say: Arsenal
One way to assess fixture difficulty is through the Opta Power Rankings. These rankings assign every club in the world a rating between 0 and 100 based on their strength. The current No. 1 side in the world (Arsenal at the moment) are rated at 100, with all others scaled relative to that benchmark.
By averaging the ratings of each team’s remaining opponents, we can estimate the overall difficulty of their run-in. The higher the average opponent rating, the tougher the schedule.
By this measure, Arsenal have the slightly easier path. Their remaining opponents carry an average rating of 90.2, compared with 91.4 for Man City.
Those numbers are slightly difficult to grasp in isolation, but they are easier to understand when placed in the context of the whole league.
When we do that, we see that City’s remaining schedule is among one of the tougher run-ins in the division, with only five teams facing a more difficult set of fixtures according to the Opta Power Rankings.
Pep Guardiola’s side still have to face tricky opponents in Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton, Brentford and Aston Villa.
Arsenal’s schedule appears more forgiving. Only four teams in the league have an easier run-in based on the strength of their opponents.
Before their potentially decisive trip to the Etihad Stadium, Mikel Arteta’s side face Everton and Bournemouth at home. After that meeting with City, their final five fixtures include games against West Ham and Burnley, both currently in the relegation zone, along with home games against Newcastle and Fulham.
Taken together, Arsenal’s fixtures either side of their trip to Manchester look more favourable than City’s overall schedule, particularly in the closing stretch.
Home and Away Form Says: Arsenal
A limitation of using the Opta Power Rankings alone is that the ratings do not account for home advantage. Teams coming up against Arsenal, for example, play against a team rated 100 in the rankings regardless of whether the match is played home or away. That’s not completely right, as the location clearly affects the difficulty of the fixture to a certain degree.
Let’s layer in some home and away analysis then. The tables below show each of Arsenal and City’s remaining fixtures using the opponent’s average points per game in the relevant venue (i.e. home or away).
For example, Arsenal’s next match is at home to Everton, so we’re looking at Everton’s away points per game, which stands at 1.71.
City’s game against Everton, meanwhile, is at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, where the hosts have averaged just 1.27 points per game this season.
Funnily enough, then, Everton have been an ‘easier’ side to face when they’ve been at home compared to on their travels.
When those venue-specific figures are averaged across the remaining fixtures, the comparison again favours Arsenal. Their remaining opponents average 1.20 points per game in the relevant home or away setting, compared with 1.46 for Manchester City.
With home and away form taken into account, Arsenal’s run-in still appears marginally more favourable.
Last Season’s Results Say: Arsenal (Just)
Another simple way to view the run-in is to examine how each side performed in the corresponding fixtures last season and assume similar results.
Burnley were not in the Premier League last season, so those fixtures can be excluded from both run-ins. In any case, both Arsenal and City would be strong favourites to take maximum points from that fixture.
Across the remaining eight comparable fixtures, Manchester City took 19 points last season (P8 W6 D1 L1) while Arsenal collected 14 (P7 W4 D2 L1).
If those exact totals were replicated this year, Arsenal would still win the title, but by only two points. Oof.
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Perhaps we should stop trying to guess ourselves and just ask the Opta supercomputer, which has simulated the rest of the Premier League season 10,000 times. It, too, gives Arsenal a commanding advantage.
Across the model’s 10,000 most recent simulations, Arteta’s side win the title 94.4% of the time, making them overwhelming favourites to finish top.
History Says: Arsenal
History also looks kindly on Arsenal.
Only once in Premier League history has a team led the table by seven or more points after 30 matches and failed to win the title. That came in 1997-98, when Manchester United held a nine-point lead over Arsenal in March but had played three more games than the Gunners. Arsène Wenger’s side eventually completed the comeback and won the title by a single point.
Every other instance of a seven-point lead at this stage of the season has ended with the leaders lifting the trophy. That is 12 successes from 13 attempts, a 92.3% conversion rate, though of course it should be remembered that City still have that game in hand.
So by most measures, Arsenal have to be considered strong favourites from here.
But recent history has shown us how difficult the final step can be. Arsenal have previously reached seemingly commanding positions in title races only to fall short. The final hurdle, it seems, is more often psychological than statistical for them.
The biggest challenge between Arsenal and the title may not be Manchester City, but overcoming the pressure of finishing the job.
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Arsenal or Manchester City: Which Side Has the Easier Premier League Title Run-In? Opta Analyst.
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