As America’s war with Iran enters its third week, the lack of a proper plan becomes screamingly clear.
Benjamin Netanyahu has one. For nearly 30 years the Israeli PM has believed this type of action to be necessary. But in the White House, what’s the endgame?
The Iranian regime is weakened, cornered but defiant – and looks unlikely to surrender. Even assassinating Iran’s new Supreme Leader would probably see him replaced by another hardliner.
The likeliest scenario appears to be Donald Trump walking away at some arbitrary moment, declaring victory. Already, he faces ever harsher choices. Is he willing to commit the US Navy to the Gulf in perpetuity, to police shipping lanes? Is he willing to put boots on the ground, to secure oil production, desalination plants (drinking water) and protect America’s allies?
The US President is still unable or unwilling to explain his goals. At the Pentagon, the destruction of Iran’s missile factories, silos and naval power will be applauded. The nuclear programme is kneecapped and Tehran’s regional proxies are enfeebled – although beware the radicalisation of the next generation.
Yet the war has already pivoted towards the global economy. Iran’s strategy is obvious. The military threat is no longer conventional but asymmetric, with attack drones launched at oil, gas, finance and tourism targets.
Tehran’s plan is to rattle world markets and hike energy prices, in turn leading to higher inflation, higher interest rates and lower global growth. The worst-case scenarios may yet be avoided, but 15 days in, the US is already running out of good options.
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