Can the reigning champions draw first blood in this UEFA Champions League last-16 clash? We look ahead to Wednesday’s first-leg tie at the Parc des Princes with our PSG vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
PSG vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
Paris Saint-Germain have prevailed in the last two Champions League knockout ties between these sides. They are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to win the first leg (49.2%). Chelsea have lost three of their eight Champions League meetings with PSG, only losing more times in the competition against Bayern Munich and Barcelona (both four). PSG have progressed from their last three Champions League knockout ties against English clubs – all last season when they eliminated Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal consecutively.Champions League holders Paris Saint-Germain are aiming to get back to winning ways when they host Chelsea in the first leg of their mouth-watering last-16 contest.
One of the standout ties of the round pits the defending European champions against the team that beat them in the final of last year’s FIFA Club World Cup.
PSG’s Ligue 1 title ambitions were dented at the Parc des Princes on Friday after a 3-1 defeat to Monaco – the side they beat in the Champions League knockout play-offs – reducing the leaders’ advantage over second-place Lens to just a single point with nine games remaining.
That means Luis Enrique’s side are without a win in successive home matches in all competitions for the first time in nearly two years.
However, their focus will switch back to the Champions League in midweek, where they have now won their last five two-legged ties.
Three of those came consecutively against English opposition last season, with Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal all defeated on PSG’s path to the final, before they thrashed Inter to lift the trophy.
And there appear to be plenty of parallels with last term’s triumphant campaign this time around.
Just like last season when they swept Brest aside 10-0 on aggregate, PSG had to navigate past a Ligue 1 foe in the knockout phase play-offs after finishing 11th during the league phase.
They could also face three successive English opponents en route to the final, with Liverpool and Manchester City potentially providing their opposition in the quarter-finals and semi-finals respectively.
PSG are now gearing up for their 14th successive appearance in the round of 16. Three of those appearances have come against Chelsea, and the Parisians have progressed from the most recent two. The last time these sides met in the UCL knockout stages was in 2015-16, where PSG won 4-2 on aggregate after winning 2-1 both home and away.
With just one defeat in their last eight European meetings with English opponents, the omens appear positive for the Ligue 1 giants, while only Bayern Munich and Barcelona (both four) have beaten Chelsea more often in the Champions League (three).
That said, Chelsea will have fond memories from eight months ago when Cole Palmer inspired them to a 3-0 victory over PSG in the Club World Cup final, with the Englishman scoring twice and providing an assist for João Pedro.
Chelsea have also prevailed in 13 of their last 16 European two-legged ties, as well as their three most recent Champions League round-of-16 encounters.
Since their defeat by PSG at this stage of the Champions League 10 years ago, the Blues have also won all six of their games in the competition against French clubs.
Fresh from reaching the FA Cup quarter-finals courtesy of Saturday’s dramatic 4-2 victory over Championship side Wrexham, in which they twice came from behind before winning in extra-time, Liam Rosenior’s side now look to follow suit in the Champions League, following a sixth-place finish in the league phase.
Chelsea have been free-scoring under Rosenior, netting 38 goals in 15 games in all competitions, with only Arsenal (39) finding the net more often among Premier League clubs since he took charge.
The 41-year-old will become the 16th manager to see his first Champions League knockout-stage game come against the reigning champions. Of the previous 15, only Ralf Rangnick (with Schalke against Inter in April 2011) was victorious (D5 L9).
Rosenior may have to make do without Chelsea’s joint-top scorer in this season’s competition in Estêvão (three, level with João Pedro) through injury, as well as Jamie Gittens, while Levi Colwill is a long-term absentee.
Ousmane Dembélé and Senny Mayulu have recently returned to action for PSG, but the defending champions will be missing key midfielder Fabián Ruiz for this one.
PSG vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Chelsea have lost three of their eight Champions League meetings with PSG, only losing more games in the competition against Bayern Munich and Barcelona (four each).
PSG have beaten Chelsea in their last two Champions League knockout meetings, most recently in 2015-16, where they secured a 4-2 aggregate win.
Since then, Chelsea have won all six of their Champions League games against French clubs, while PSG have won their last three European two-legged ties against Premier League clubs.
PSG vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer favours a home victory, with PSG winning 49.2% of the game’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Chelsea’s chances of winning are rated at 26.4%, with a draw at 24.4%.
PSG vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Paris Saint-Germain: Matvey Safonov, Nuno Mendes, Willian Pacho, Illia Zabarnyi, Achraf Hakimi, João Neves, Vitinha, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola, Désiré Doué.
Head coach: Luis Enrique
Chelsea: Filip Jorgensen, Jorrel Hato, Benoît Badiashile, Trevoh Chalobah, Malo Gusto, Enzo Fernández, Moisés Caicedo, Reece James, Alejandro Garnacho, João Pedro, Cole Palmer.
Head coach: Liam Rosenior
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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PSG vs Chelsea Prediction: Can the Champions League Holders Bounce Back From Monaco Defeat? Opta Analyst.
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