With the play-off round done, the UEFA Champions League‘s knockout stages officially begin this week. Here, we’ve identified one aspect to keep an eye on from each tie.
If you don’t consider the play-off round to be ‘proper’ Champions League knockout football, then ‘proper’ Champions League knockout football begins this week as the last 16 gets under way.
The first legs are split across Tuesday and Wednesday, with the return games taking place next week as Europe’s premier competition ramps up.
Remarkably, six of the remaining 16 teams are from England, with Spain the only other country to have more than two representatives left.
Ahead of the first legs, we’ve identified one key question, topic or theme that is worth keeping an eye on for each tie.
Does a Memorable Night Await Mohamed Salah?
Liverpool’s trip to Istanbul on Tuesday represents something of a banana skin, given Galatasaray crushed Juventus at home in the last round. But the Reds are still deemed heavy favourites, and Mohamed Salah will hope a positive result contributes to an all-round special evening for him.
The Egyptian is on the cusp of two fairly significant milestones ahead of this game.
First of all, he will overtake Jamie Carragher to become Liverpool’s record appearance maker in the European Cup/Champions League if he plays, with both currently locked on 80.
Although it’s obviously easier to break such a record these days because there are more games to play in Europe, it would still be a real achievement considering Liverpool’s storied history in these competitions. Similarly, it’ll reflect the immense consistency he’s enjoyed for most of his Anfield stay.
The other landmark on Salah’s horizon is becoming the first African player to reach 50 goals in the European Cup/Champions League – he has 49 at the moment.
Throughout his time at Liverpool, Salah has made a habit of breaking records and setting standards. It seems increasingly likely 2025-26 could be his last in Europe, and with Arne Slot’s team rather erratic this term, there’s no guarantee their continental campaign will continue after the round of 16.
He needs to take his opportunities while he can.
Can Atalanta Stifle Bayern’s Irresistible Frontline?
Atalanta don’t have a great record in knockout rounds of the Champions League as it is, losing six of their last seven such matches.
They’ll not be enthusiastic about what’s to come, then, as their last-16 clash with Bayern Munich will see them come up against three of Europe’s form attackers in Harry Kane, Michael Olise and Luis Díaz.
Between them, Olise and Díaz have 72 goal involvements in all competitions this season; no club in Europe’s top leagues has wingers who can compare to those figures.
And then, Kane leads the way among all players in Europe’s top five leagues for goal involvements in all comps with 54, 10 more than Kylian Mbappé.
Atalanta have never kept a clean sheet in their previous nine UCL knockout games, conceding 2.0 goals per game on average. Meanwhile, Bayern average the most goals per game (1.9) in the knockouts of any team to play at least five KO games.
Bayern will take some stopping this season; if Atalanta manage to be the team to halt them, it’ll be a truly momentous occasion for the Italians.
Is This a Welcome or Unwanted Distraction for Tottenham?
Whatever glamour the Champions League brings, there is no escaping Tottenham’s domestic form. They have sunk into a relegation battle with a dismal run of 11 games without a Premier League win to leave them just one point clear of safety with nine games left to play.
It sounds a bit like last season, when Spurs finished 17th in the league but won the Europa League to end a 17-year trophy drought on a glorious night in Bilbao.
Except this time around, the threat of relegation is real. And the chance of winning the European competition they are in is next to negligible. Based on recent form, the 0.74% chance the Opta supercomputer gives them of winning the Champions League looks more than a little generous.
European competition has provided some respite from their miserable league campaign all season, and there’s an argument their glamourous tie with Atlético Madrid – their second-ever meeting after the 1963 Cup Winners’ Cup final, which Spurs won 5-1 – gives a welcome chance to put their relegation worries to one side.
But that said, Europe could not be less of a priority now. This game, tie and competition feel overwhelmingly like an unnecessary distraction for Spurs. Their main aim isn’t to progress; it’s to avoid any more injuries.
Would Newcastle Beating Barcelona Be Bad for the Champions League?
Six Premier League teams entered the Champions League this season, and six still remain. There have been signs all season that the financial might of England’s top flight has made the imbalance between Europe’s top leagues too great – not least in Spurs coasting through the league phase – but Newcastle vs Barcelona might be the ultimate test of this competition’s lasting competitiveness.
The team currently 12th in the Premier League, having recently lost at home to Everton and Brentford, face the leaders of La Liga. Newcastle are struggling domestically and will play one the biggest giants in European football, so they are the tie’s outsiders. But even so, this is no foregone conclusion: the Opta supercomputer gives Newcastle a respectable 36.4% chance of progressing to the quarter-finals.
Earlier this year, Newcastle forward Anthony Gordon discussed the differences between the two competitions. “In the Champions League, teams are much more open; they all try and play, it’s less transitional. In the Premier League, it’s become more physical than I’ve ever known it to be. It’s become like a basketball game sometimes; it’s so relentless. There is not much control, it’s just a running game sometimes. Sometimes it’s about who wins the duels or moments.”
It appears Newcastle are finding European games rather easier to navigate, and even though they were beaten 2-1 at home by Barcelona in this season’s league phase, they will still believe they have a decent chance in this tie.
It may be in the competition’s best interests, however, for the best team in Spain to beat their mid-table Premier League opponents.
Do Arsenal Already Have One Foot in the… Final?
Arsenal were already the favourites to win the Champions League this season, and then the draw gave their chances an unneeded but still very welcome boost.
Facing Bayer Leverkusen in the first knockout round, they have the best chance of progress of all 16 teams involved, winning the tie in 86.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.
Then, should the supercomputer be proven right, Arsenal will face the winner of the weakest tie in the competition – more on that below – in the quarter-finals. They would also fancy their chances of beating any one of the four teams they could face in the semis: Atlético, Tottenham, Newcastle or Barcelona. Without kicking a ball in the knockouts, Arsenal look primed to make the final for the first time since 2006. This is a huge opportunity to win the one competition that has forever eluded them.
They have, however, never won a Champions League knockout tie against a German team, losing five times, though all five have been against Bayern Munich.
Can they keep up their current momentum and take advantage of a very favourable draw? Their prospects look very good indeed.
Bodø/Glimt Target Only Second UCL Quarter-Final for Norwegian Clubs
Bodø/Glimt’s story in the 2025-26 Champions League is already a brilliant tale.
With two matchdays of the league phase left, no one was wasting much time thinking about their progression chances because they were outside the top 24 (32nd) and had to play Manchester City and Atlético Madrid in their final two games.
It was surely going to be curtains for them.
Only, they went on to beat both European heavyweights to qualify – against the odds – for the play-off round. They then arguably went one better, winning home (3-1) and away (2-1) against Inter in the play-offs.
Their reward is a tie that, considering who they’ve already beaten, they must see as extremely winnable, with all due respect to a Sporting CP side who finished seventh in the league phase. This is, on paper, the weakest of the last-16 ties.
The Opta supercomputer gives Bodø/Glimt a 36.8% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, which would be momentous. The last – and only – Norwegian side to get that far in the Champions League was Rosenborg in 1996-97, so nearly 30 years ago.
A home win on Tuesday would go a long way to them matching Rosenborg’s achievement. If they do beat Sporting, Bodø/Glimt will be just the fifth team from outside Europe’s top five leagues to win five consecutive UCL games this century.
PSG’s Bid for Revenge
Chelsea caused something of a stir when then they wiped the floor with Paris Saint-Germain – who’d only just won the Champions League – in the final of last summer’s Club World Cup.
It was a victory that made people sit up and take note, potentially marking Enzo Maresca’s men out as major challengers in Europe and domestically for 2025-26.
It hasn’t quite worked that way, as they’re not in the Premier League title race and Maresca was dismissed in January, replaced by Liam Rosenior. On their day, though, they’re still a force to be reckoned with.
Nevertheless, this tie gives PSG an opportunity for revenge.
Cole Palmer stole the show in Chelsea’s 3-0 win at MetLife Stadium, with all three goals scored in the first half. Tensions then boiled over at full-time, but the contest was won for the Blues, with Maresca suggesting they valued it “as much as the Champions League, or perhaps even more.”
PSG coach Luis Enrique played down the idea that “revenge” was on their minds last week, though French publication RMC Sport claims the players have a rather different mindset.
Whether they’re capable of exacting revenge, however, is another matter. PSG lost 3-1 to Monaco on Friday, their first home league defeat of the season, and Luis Enrique acknowledged they have a confidence issue.
“Clearly, when there are problems, it’s the head,” he said. “It’s clear that confidence is not something you buy at [a supermarket].”
Counter-Attacks vs Possession in Madrid vs City… Again
For a fifth season in a row, Real Madrid and Manchester City meet in the Champions League knockout stages. It is the first time in the history of the competition that a fixture has been repeated in the knockouts in as many successive seasons.
We all know what we are getting from this game. Two heavyweights battle it out in – despite Xabi Alonso’s attempts to transform Madrid earlier in the season – a clash of styles: lightning-quick transitions versus patient build-up.
Coming into the round-of-16 ties, City have scored the most goals following an open-play sequence of at least 10 passes (six) in the Champions League this season. Meanwhile, no side have scored more goals following direct attacks than Madrid (four – level with Benfica), who also rank first for direct attacks that end in a shot or a touch in the opposition’s box (31).
These two sides have won the Champions League in three of the last four seasons, so there is a huge amount of (recent) pedigree in this fixture, but there is no denying they have gross imperfections this time around. Madrid keep on stuttering in La Liga’s title race, while City can’t quite shake the nagging inconsistency that is preventing them from catching Arsenal at the top of the Premier League.
It is a bit of a shame to have seen these two play each other so many times – they also faced off in this season’s league phase – that there is less to get excited about, but they do tend to produce entertaining games. And this time around should be no different.
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