Players highlighted in the “Make Or Break” feature normally fall into one of a few familiar categories. Sometimes it’s a former star prospect running out of chances to prove they belong in the majors, or perhaps it’s an established star trying to bounce back after a down year or two, or maybe it’s a veteran trying to get their career on track after an extended injury absence.
Alec Bohm doesn’t exactly fit any of these models. In fact, one could argue Bohm has already been “made” in the sense that he was an All-Star in 2024, and is coming off four seasons as the Phillies’ top choice at third base (as well as a part-time first baseman), with 8.0 fWAR to show for his 560 games and 2352 plate appearances from 2022-25. He has an above-average 105 wRC+ at the plate over those four seasons, and Bohm’s third base glovework has improved from terrible to at least palatable, and even pretty good depending on the metric of choice.
This is the track record of a solid, Major League-caliber player, and it’s a resume that Bohm is rightfully proud of achieving. “You look at it in the grand scheme of things, out of all the players, a very small number that have ever played in the big leagues, there’s not a lot of them that get to arbitration,” Bohm recently told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. “Then the list gets even smaller of those who get to arbitration, get to free agency. Then the list gets even smaller when you talk about guys who get to 10 years and beyond.”
“When you kind of zoom out and look at it from a different perspective, I’ve done a lot of great things. I’ve had a pretty good career for myself, made it a lot further than a lot of people can say. I’m definitely proud of that, and want to keep building on it.”
Bohm’s issue, in some ways, is a matter of framing. Bohm can be described as a decent or okay player…or as “just a” decent or okay player. The Phillies haven’t really been hurt by having Bohm take a regular spot in their lineup, nor is he at fault for the team’s inability to get over the hump for a World Series championship. (Bohm’s .225/.327/.333 slash line over 150 postseason plate appearances isn’t good, but he is far from the only Philadelphia hitter to struggle in the playoffs.)
Because Bohm’s production has always evened out to roughly average, however, it creates the sense that the Phillies could do better at the hot corner. It also doesn’t help that Bohm’s perception that he was a top prospect and the third overall pick in the 2018 draft. Though Rosenthal notes that Bohm’s production has bettered a lot of other prominent names from that draft class, the infielder is (rightly or wrongly) a victim of the high expectations that come with being a top draft choice. In a sense, Bohm represents a larger issue clouding this otherwise successful run of Phillies baseball — the team hasn’t gotten much from its farm system, as the roster has been built most around free agents and trades.
Along these same lines, Bohm has been the subject of trade rumors for the better part of two years. Bohm’s 3.4 fWAR season in 2024 was the best of his career, as he had a 113 wRC+ from hitting .280/.332/.448 with 15 homers over 606 PA, and he also delivered +4 Outs Above Average as a third baseman. The down side of his career year was that Bohm slumped badly after the All-Star break, and the Phillies’ response to this breakout campaign was to shop Bohm to address other needs.
Such teams as the Athletics, Mariners, Royals, Angels, and White Sox were all linked to Bohm-related rumors in the 2024-25 offseason, with the idea being that the Phils would move Bohm and then sign one of Alex Bregman or Willy Adames to play third base. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was at least aiming high in shopping Bohm offers, and perhaps too high — reports indicated that George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Mason Miller, and Garrett Crochet were some of the players the Phillies wanted in return for trade packages involving Bohm.
There weren’t as many public reports about Bohm’s market this offseason, maybe in part because Bohm’s production dropped to a 105 wRC+ (.287/.331/.409 with 11 homers over 464 PA) and he was limited to 120 games due to a left rib fracture and shoulder inflammation. Philadelphia was again looking to upgrade at third base, coming just short of signing Bo Bichette in a scenario that would’ve turned Bohm into an obvious trade chip for the remainder of the winter.
Going forward, top prospect Aidan Miller is expected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2026, and then step into an everyday role at either second or third base in 2027. This puts pressure on second baseman Bryson Stott for one, but it’s a more direct threat to Bohm since he is slated to become a free agent next offseason. As Rosenthal puts it, “at this point, perhaps even more than before, Bohm is playing for the other 29 teams.” There’s even a non-zero chance Bohm could be dealt in-season depending on how the Phillies feel about Miller’s ability to immediately contribute in the majors.
For his part, Bohm hasn’t been worried about the trade speculation or his impending free agency, saying he is just concerned about playing. “I don’t really take any of it personally, think too far into it. It’s all out of my control. I can’t do anything to prevent it….I don’t stew over it. It’s just part of the business side of it,” Bohm said.
A midseason trade would make Bohm ineligible for the qualifying offer, so that would remove any draft compensation from his free agent case. Assuming Bohm remains a Phillie throughout 2026, a qualifying offer could be a moot point anyway, as it would probably take a huge jump in production for Philadelphia to even consider issuing Bohm a QO. If Bohm delivers his usual type of season, there’s a decent chance he’d just accept the offer and take a big one-year payday (this year’s QO was worth $22.025MM) rather than deal with both the vagaries of his own market, plus the added uncertainty of how the inevitable lockout will interrupt the 2026-27 offseason. Adding a $22MM-ish salary to an already hefty payroll likely isn’t in the Phillies’ interest, when Miller could just take over at third base for a minimum salary.
Qualifying offer aside, Bohm is the type of mid-tier free agent we’ve seen get squeezed by the market in the past. Teams without much payroll room might feel they can more or less replicate Bohm’s production with a cheaper veteran or maybe two platoon options. Bigger-spending teams could take the Phillies’ approach and seek for more prominent names at third base, with Bohm then becoming a fallback option at most. Between the lockout and potential changes made in a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams may not be likely to make an early commitment to a mid-level player like Bohm until they know exactly how baseball’s business structure will change.
The easiest way for Bohm to change the narrative, of course, is to have a terrific 2026 season. He needs to hit better against right-handed pitching and keep more consistent over the course of a full year, and while this is naturally easier said that done, we’ve seen flashes of how good Bohm can be when he’s been in the midst of one of his hot streaks. Again, it isn’t as if Bohm is a bad player — his hard-hit ball rates are solid, and he is borderline excellent at making contact and avoiding strikeouts. Bumping his walk and barrel rates even up to average levels would make Bohm a more dangerous threat at the plate.
Bohm turns 30 in August, and he could benefit from a fairly thin class of free agent third basemen next winter. Teams have shown they’ll pay for star-level production or even star-level potential, but it’s a trickier free agent environment for players like Bohm who have a decently high floor but a seemingly limited ceiling. A two-year deal (maybe three years max) of roughly $10MM in average annual value seems plausible for the 2024 version of Bohm, so he’ll need to at least top those numbers to avoid fielding a slate of one-year, prove-it type of offers next winter.
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