Shabana Mahmood was being talked about as a candidate for prime minister as recently as last September.
The tough-talking politician had just been promoted to Home Secretary and appeared deeply in tune with voters’ concerns over migration after a political summer dominated by small boat crossings.
Mahmood was also seen as a key ally of all-powerful No 10 chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, who is believed to have long wanted Labour to be tough on immigration to appeal to so-called “hero” voters at risk of switching to Reform UK.
After being tipped by Conservative grandee Michael Gove as a future PM, Mahmood said politicians are “basically lying” if they “say they’re not ambitious about the top job”, adding fuel to the speculation.
But fast forward five months, and few Labour insiders give Mahmood a realistic chance of taking over from Sir Keir Starmer, whose position in No 10 remains in peril.
This week, the Home Secretary delivered a major speech on her hardline asylum and immigration reforms.
But with politics moving at breakneck speed, many in Labour, including some of her allies, are wondering if Mahmood’s plans are out of date.
The i Paper revealed this week that supporters of Mahmood believe she will have to soften the hardest edges of her immigration policies. It has become clear, they say, after the by-election defeat in Gorton and Denton, that Labour’s hopes now rest on uniting progressives behind Labour as the “anti-Reform” party of choice rather than competing for voters directly against Nigel Farage.
With Starmer’s leadership on the line, the so-called soft-left faction of Labour has grown in power and influence.
‘Mahmood can’t be leader’
Mahmood appeared to acknowledge the shifting dynamic this week, arguing “Labour values” are “at the heart” of her migration reforms.
One Labour MP said Mahmood was “effective” as a minister but stressed “there is no way she will be leader of the party” given Labour’s current internal politics.
“The PLP [Parliamentary Labour Party] and membership will block it – far too right-wing,” the MP added.
“She is also untested – migrant hotels and border control remains issues.”
The MP also said Mahmood has “limited reach” into the 2024 intake of Labour MPs and that her “link” to that cohort was former Labour Together ally Josh Simons, whose stock is diminished having been forced to resign last week after an ethics probe into the think-tank’s digging into journalists’ backgrounds.
Another Labour MP said: “There isn’t a constituency there for Shabana to win.
“She can’t be leader.”
But she may yet be a kingmaker in the contest, the MP added.
“Her only hope is to pick a winner early and stand aside for them in order to get a job out of it at the end of it all,” they said.
“Probably stand aside for Wes [Streeting] is her best bet.”
A party insider also highlighted Mahmood’s role as chair of Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) as evidence that even if she cannot win, she will be highly influential in any leadership contest.
“If she decides not to run she will be heavily involved in the process and I am sure she played a role in the deputy leader outcome, [and] the Andy Burnham decision – she abstained in the vote but what did she do prior to that.”
Despite the scepticism, some believe the Home Secretary has nevertheless been on leadership manoeuvres.
An MP revealed that one of the Home Secretary’s supporters had recently “come up and had a whisper”, asking them: “Don’t you think she’s doing well at the moment?”
Is the Home Secretary on manoeuvres?
The MP interpreted this as the ally discreetly sounding out whether they might back Mahmood in the event of a leadership contest.
However, many believe that Mahmood’s brand of politics is falling out of fashion in Labour circles.
One senior party insider said McSweeney’s departure from Downing Street and Peter Mandelson’s Epstein-linked downfall had been “really damaging for the right of Labour”, with the peer seen as the “spiritual leader” of that wing of the party.
“Shabana isn’t part of that group, she’s allied with Morgan in some ways, but she certainly wasn’t part of Mandelson’s followers in any way whatsoever,” they said.
“She is very clean in terms of her contact with Mandelson, certainly more so than others, than Wes, than Anas Sarwar.
“But we’ve got this sudden rising of the soft left, where is the Labour right? How does it respond?
“Is it going after Reform’s territory? That is territory I don’t think we’ve got any chance of cultivating anything from.”
The insider said the likes of Streeting appear to have seen their leadership hopes rest on winning over Labour’s soft left, with the Health Secretary highlighting his support for Palestine.
But Mahmood is nevertheless still pushing hardline measures on immigration she believes are necessary to stop the rise of the far right.
The insider: “The big question is: who is in the running for this and who would want it right now?
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“We have now got a playing field that is very, very level, you can’t see any front-runners in this anymore.
“You have got a tarnished Wes Streeting; a tarnished Angela Rayner; no obvious soft-left candidate; some people who are very inexperienced making manoeuvres and doing some running; Ed Miliband has been very clear he’s not going to stand; [and] Andy Burnham has not been allowed back in as an MP.
“So there is nobody out there you can say – this person is going to be the next leader.”
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