A buoyant Ireland host a Wales side looking for a first Six Nations victory for almost three years. Who will come out on top at the Aviva Stadium on Friday?
Ireland meet Wales under the Friday night lights in Dublin and go into the match with a little more swagger than when they last took to the turf at the Aviva Stadium in Round 2. Since doing just enough to get past Italy, they went on to beat England by a record points total at Twickenham and looked like the Ireland of old.
It’s hard to know what effect Wales’ most recent game – a 26-23 loss to Scotland – will have had on them, though. There haven’t been many Six Nations games in recent years in which Wales have held a lead so late in the game.
In some ways that might give them confidence that they can be competitive against Ireland, however the nature of their defeat may have left yet more scar tissue. Leading by 15 points with less than 30 minutes to play, they went on to concede 21 points, including a try directly from a restart kick that hauled Scotland right back into contention. Wales scored just three points in reply during that period.
12 – Wales have lost a men's Home/Five/Six Nations match in which they led by 10+ points after 40 minutes for the first time. Turnaround. pic.twitter.com/NFGan2fbRW
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) February 21, 2026The last few years of the Six Nations have seen several unwanted records for Wales and there could be another on Friday evening if they can’t avoid defeat. Another loss would represent their longest losing run against Ireland in any iteration of the Championship, with their current run of four defeats their worst spell against the Irish since 2001-2004.
Dublin is no easy place to win either, Ireland are unbeaten in six against Wales in Dublin (W5 D1), while France (in 2021 and 2025) are the only European nation to pick up a win there since 2019.
Where the Game Will Be Won
Last time out, Ireland were able to exploit England’s defence out wide and it’s possible they’ll attempt to do the same to Wales, given they have moved the ball ‘wide’ more often than any other team this year – progressing the ball at least 30 metres laterally from the previous breakdown on 12.5% of their phases. Meanwhile, Wales are likely to keep it tighter, having done so on a Championship-low 6.3% of phases.
Keeping it tighter has perhaps helped Steve Tandy’s side to keep possession for longer spells, with players less likely to get isolated and turned over. Wales have conceded just 30 turnovers this year – Ireland have the third-best total but have still conceded 22 more turnovers than Wales. That has allowed Wales to keep the ball for longer spells than any other team, hitting 10+ phases in a possession more often than anyone else (10 times).
It could be argued they’ve not managed to progress enough with those passages of possession, but they’ve averaged 24.7 metres gained per possession this year, with only France (27.1) gaining more ground on average. This perhaps suggests Wales aren’t as far off the pace in an attacking sense as it first seems.
However, in Ireland, Wales will come up against the best turnover winners in the tournament this year. Ireland have won 24 in total, with half of those coming via jackals, five more than any other team. They’ve also been one of the best teams at clearing out potential jackalers from the opposition too, retaining possession from 97.2% of attacking rucks this campaign, the best rate of any team.
If Wales can protect their own breakdown and disrupt Ireland’s, then this game may not be the foregone conclusion many are expecting.
Ireland vs Wales Fantasy Picks
Against England, Jamison Gibson-Park was back to his brilliant best, getting Ireland on the front foot and crossing for the opening try of the game to kick-start a big win for Andy Farrell’s men. In what is set to be his 50th appearance for Ireland, he could be an excellent option to differentiate yourself from all those who selected Antoine Dupont at the start of the tournament as a ‘set and forget’ pick.
Gibson-Park has a good record against Wales, assisting a try in each of his last three meetings with them. When Ireland play well, he is usually at the heart of it and always in the mix for the Player of the Match award, which he won at Twickenham two weeks ago.
For Wales, we can expect them to have to do a lot of tackling and for Dafydd Jenkins to be one of the busiest men on the pitch. He has made a Championship-high 55 tackles, while he’s also been incredibly busy doing the ‘unseen’ work, hitting the most attacking rucks of any player.
Ireland vs Wales Prediction
The Opta supercomputer expects Irish fans to have the happiest start to the weekend, with Ireland given a 90.8% chance of beating Wales. Steve Tandy’s men are given just an 8.5% likelihood of coming away with victory.
The supercomputer expects a comfortable win for Andy Farrell’s side, with a 22-point margin of victory being likeliest, or 39-17 to be even more precise.
Ireland vs Wales Lineups
Ireland: 15 Jamie Osborne; 14 Robert Baloucoune; 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Stuart McCloskey; 11 Jacob Stockdale; 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park; 1 Tom O’Toole, 2 Ronan Kelleher, 3 Tadhg Furlong; 4 James Ryan, 5 Tadhg Beirne; 6 Jack Conan, 7 Nick Timoney, 8 Caelan Doris (c).
Replacements: 16 Tom Stewart, 17 Michael Milne, 18 Thomas Clarkson, 19 Joe McCarthy, 20 Josh van der Flier, 21 Nathan Doak, 22 Tom Farrell, 23 Ciaran Frawley.
Wales: 15 Louis Rees-Zammit, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Eddie James, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams; 1 Rhys Carre, 2 Dewi Lake (c), 3 Tomas Francis, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 5 Ben Carter, 6 Alex Mann, 7 James Botham, 8 Aaron Wainwright.
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Archie Griffin, 19 Adam Beard, 20 Olly Cracknell, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Louie Hennessey.
Check out our other Rugby Union content on Opta Analyst. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Ireland vs Wales Prediction: Six Nations 2026 Preview Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about ireland vs wales prediction six nations 2026 preview was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Ireland vs Wales Prediction: Six Nations 2026 Preview )
Also on site :
- Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party receives second big donation from crypto investor
- Blake Shelton Reveals How Him and Gwen Stefani Are 'Stepping it Up' Months After Divorce Rumors Swirled
- Canadian Actress Elle-Máijá Tailfeathers Returns Toronto Film Critics Award in Response to Censorship of Pro-Palestine Speech