Satellite images out of Iran show that US and Israeli strikes have made direct hits to nuclear sites, military targets, drone and missile storage sites and regime buildings.
But instead of wiping out the country’s ability to make nuclear weapons, experts warn that the threat of an Iran with a nuclear arsenal may not only still exist, but that the attacks may have inadvertently accelerated the regime’s plans to develop such weapons.
Hammered by bombs in June last year, the Americans and Israelis returned on 2 March to Natanz to serve what they probably hoped would be the death blow for the major nuclear site 140 miles south of Tehran.
Entrance buildings to the crippled underground nuclear facility were bombed in the first attack on an Iranian nuclear site since the US-Israeli military campaign began on 28 February. The scale of the damage is visible from space.
Iran has repeatedly claimed it is not developing nuclear weapons, but its refusal to allow inspectors access to its sites and unexplained stockpiles of highly enriched uranium have fuelled concerns that the regime is on a covert path to becoming a nuclear power.
Three buildings at the Natanz site were hit on 2 March (Photo: 2026 Vantor)Spencer Faragasso, senior research fellow at the Institute for Science and International Security, explains that if the regime retains power – or if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its powerful militia, consolidates its grip – Iran could become “a much more aggressive, ideologically driven, and determined country to harm the United States, Israel, and its allies. I would be unsurprised to see hardline members of the IRGC, military, or government call for nuclear weapons”.
He added: “That would likely invite renewed attacks from the United States and Israel. Ultimately, it’s a very dangerous situation for Iran.”
This concern has precedent, says Dr Manuel Herrera of Basic, a nuclear risk think-tank.
Ayatollah Khamenei’s compound before it was struck on 28 February (Photo: 2026 Vantor) … and after. The building where he was thought to be inside can be seen torn apart and black with damage from the strike (Photo: Satellite image ©2026 Vantor)If the regime remains theocratic under a new supreme leader, Iran could follow the example of Iraq, whose nuclear programme accelerated after its sites were bombed in 1981 – ultimately pushing Saddam Hussein to press ahead with developing nuclear weapons.
He said: “Iran may now decide to cross the threshold. If the regime survives they may accelerate and go forward through that path.”
A significant difference from the 12-day campaign in June 2025 is that the current US strikes are targeting military and government sites as well as nuclear facilities.
Structures destroyed at a drone base at the Choqa Balk-e facility, west of Kermanshah, pictured on 2 March (Photo: 2026 Vantor)“Both US President Donald Trump and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have mentioned three overlapping objectives: degrading Iran’s nuclear capability, weakening its missile and military infrastructure, and exerting pressure on the Iranian political system itself,” said Dr Katayoun Shahandeh, a lecturer at Soas and an Iranian living in Britain.
“It’s somewhat different to the June attacks, where they just attacked nuclear sites.
“This is the reason they are targeting various sites, not all of which are nuclear and are in cities, particularly Tehran, which has been heavily targeted.”
Precision strikes on hardened aircraft shelters at Konarak airbase. The strike point is visible in the centre of each of the four roofs (Photo: 2026 Vantor)Videos verified by this paper and satellite imagery show how precise some of the US-Israeli guided missile strikes have been. On the other hand, the accuracy of other hits, such as a girls’ school and medical facilities, has prompted criticism and speculation on social media.
Authorities said at least 165 students, mostly girls aged 7-12 years, and staff were killed in the school strike in Minab in southern Iran on Saturday morning.
The US and Israeli bombing campaign is happening in highly populated areas, meaning a large number of videos initially emerged from the ground before the internet was cut off on 28 February.
This verified video is among those which appear to show the moments after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound was struck:
ویدیوی دریافتی از انفجار در مرکز #تهران با شرح: "۴ تا جنگنده بیت رهبری رو زدند"#Iran #Tehran #Israel pic.twitter.com/mt6oMlDkml
— Vahid Online (@Vahid) February 28, 2026What has happened at the Natanz nuclear site?
Three buildings located near the site’s underground uranium enrichment halls were destroyed, in theory preventing access to the subterranean facilities by foot or vehicle
The three newly hit targets join those devastated during last June’s conflict, when the US for the first time deployed the GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator – a 30,000lb bomb designed to punch through 18 metres of concrete before exploding. Two were dropped on Natanz’s underground facilities on 21 June; Fordow and Esfahan were also badly hit. All three appear to have been brought to a standstill.
The damage from bombing raids over the Natanz site from both 2025 and this week, as well as indications of where work was carried out to rebuild (Photo: 2026 Vantor)The previous attack on Natanz also saw electrical infrastructure, the above ground fuel enrichment plant and steam pipes destroyed, among other targets.
The damage this week appears much less dramatic – but has a key tactical importance.
“The destruction of these access points is significant because it effectively prevents access to the underground complex,” noted Faragasso, the nuclear expert.
“Destroying the vehicle entrance effectively prevents Iran from entering the underground complex and moving any material or equipment that may have survived the June war out of the underground complex. This could include centrifuges, cascade related equipment like pipes, valves, autoclaves, or enriched uranium such as uranium hexafluoride cylinders”.
The Natanz site pictured in 2002 while it was being built. This image shows the underground facilities still under construction, but also the subterranean roads that link to the entrance buildings which were damaged this month (Photo: 2026 Vantor)Some of that move had already happened, which in some ways made Natanz less of a significant hit this time compared to June 2025, according to Dr Herrera of Basic.
“Most of the activities of Natanz have been rebuilt, or they were being rebuilt, in an underground facility nearby at Mount Kolang Gaz La – also known as Pickaxe Mountain. It means the damage or the risks of potential consequences are quite low in comparison with last year.”
The threat from Iran’s nuclear programme before June 2025 is characterised by Faragasso as “extremely heightened”, with Iran having the ability to produce enough weapon grade uranium for a single nuclear weapon in less than a week.
“It was a grave situation that was only getting worse,” he said.
After the bombing campaign, concerns remained that Iran would simply rebuild.
“The nuclear threat level from Iran was still elevated and would have only increased as time went on,” he said. “The setbacks incurred by Iran during the June 2025 war were not permanent and given enough time, investment, and commitment, Iran could have reconstituted its nuclear programme, although at great cost.
“Iranian officials repeatedly stated that they would not give up and their intention to rebuild what was destroyed or damaged.”
Nearby Pickaxe Mountain, also known as Mount Kolang Gaz La, where Natanz’s facilities were being rebuilt (Photo: 2026 Vantor)It is believed that Iran had maintained its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, including its stocks of 60 per cent enriched uranium. Iran is also thought to have held on to centrifuges it produced before the June 2025 war, but never installed.
While the regime would need to have built a new centrifuge enrichment facility, a complex hurdle which would likely see Tehran seek equipment illicitly from abroad or by recovering intact surviving equipment from its damaged facilities, it would not have been insurmountable, Faragasso said.
These concerns jostle alongside the fact the extent of damage wrought in June 2025 and this week is in many ways still unknown.
Dr Shahandeh of Soas said because the Iranians build part or all of their nuclear sites underground and are designed to withstand aerial bombardment, satellite imagery cannot provide a complete picture of the damage.
“This does not mean that the infrastructure beneath the surface is unaffected, but it needs classified information, which we don’t have. Iran does not provide this information and is very opaque about damage caused by previous attacks. At this stage, it remains unclear how much damage has been inflicted on those subterranean areas.”
Confusion over the damage this week was not helped by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initially reporting no new damage at the site, before, a day later on 3 March, confirming “some recent damage to entrance buildings of Iran’s underground Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP)”.
The statement added that there was “no radiological consequence expected and no additional impact detected at FEP itself, which was severely damaged in the June conflict”.
IAEA remains in constant contact with national nuclear safety regulators in the Middle East. So far, no elevation of radiation detected. The nuclear power plant in UAE and research reactors in Jordan and Syria continue to operate normally. DG @rafaelmgrossi stresses the paramount…
— IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency (@iaeaorg) March 4, 2026It confirmed on 4 March that no elevated levels or radiation had been detected and that it “stresses the paramount importance of maintaining regional nuclear safety and security during the military conflict”.
While evidence of assets being transported from Natanz have been observed, there is also some sign of rebuilding at the site.
Satellite images showing the latest damage also reveal that the fuel enrichment plant appears to have been rebuilt, and the crater caused by the concrete-busting ordnance has been filled in.
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