From Washington, D.C. to Ukraine to Taiwan, there’s growing concern that the U.S. war in Iran is depleting stocks of sophisticated weapons systems that protect American bases, ships and allies around the globe from missile attacks. Senior U.S. officials have acknowledged the problem while downplaying the severity of the situation.
In the days since a wave of military strikes from the U.S. and Israel killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and deteriorated the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities, Iran has retaliated with ballistic missile strikes targeting Israel, U.S. installations in the region and several Middle Eastern countries that host U.S. military bases. To defend themselves, U.S. forces and allies have deployed complex and expensive systems that fire missiles at incoming supersonic warheads—a technical feat sometimes likened to hitting a bullet with a bullet.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]The defenses have been largely effective at blocking most Iranian missile and drone volleys. But some have gotten through. Iranian counter strikes have killed six U.S. service members since Saturday.
But the bleeding of those weapons systems has implications beyond the immediate Middle East theater of war. Analysts and lawmakers are worried that the sudden depletion of defensive weapons is making it harder to credibly project U.S. power against Russia in Ukraine and in the Pacific against China.
“I am deeply concerned about Ukraine,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat who sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee, tells TIME. “Just as a matter of common sense, our resources and supplies are limited, and I think we will be hard pressed, at some point, to tell Ukraine what is coming.” Questions about the U.S. weapons stockpile topic came up during a closed-door briefing between senior Trump Administration officials and members of Congress on Tuesday, according to several Senators who were present.
“We understand that a long war … and the intensity of the fighting will affect the amount of air defence equipment we receive,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week, according to The Kyiv Independent. “Everyone understands that the right weapons are our lifeline,” Zelenksy added.
Trump acknowledged the concerns around cashing in the weapons stockpile on Monday, writing on Truth Social that munitions stockpiles have “never been higher or better.” He said the U.S. has “a virtually unlimited supply of these weapons. Wars can be fought ‘forever,’ and very successfully, using just these supplies.” But, he added, “At the highest end, we have a good supply, but are not where we want to be.”
Asked by TIME for further clarification, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday, “The United States of America has more than enough capability to not only successfully execute Operation Epic Fury, but to go much further. And we have weapons stockpiles in places that many people in this world don’t even know about.”
While insisting the country’s munitions stockpile is plentiful, Leavitt laid the blame for any potential problems on former President Joe Biden and his handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Unfortunately, we had a very stupid and incompetent leader in this White House for four years who gave away many of our best weapons for nothing, for free, to another country, very far away, by the name of Ukraine,” Leavitt said.
Ryan Brobst, an expert on the U.S. defense industrial base at Foundation for Defense of Democracies pointed to the U.S. military’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (THAAD) defense system as crucial in helping knock down Iranian ballistic missiles in recent days. He said the THAAD system is particularly important in fending off potential Chinese attacks on U.S. positions in Asia.
“My main concern is not that we don’t have enough munitions to prosecute this conflict with Iran, it’s about the day after and being able to deter China,” Brobst said.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth addressed concerns about the impact of the Iran war on U.S. weaponry on Wednesday as he discussed some of the more “exquisite” weapons systems that have been used in the opening days of the war, including Patriot air defense missiles. “Our stockpile of those as well as Patriots remain extremely strong,” he said during a briefing with reporters at the Pentagon. “Our air defenses and that of our allies have plenty of runway.”
Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, says the looming munitions shortfalls are the cumulation of decisions made during the past three administrations. “We did marginal to minimal purchases every year and hoped we didn’t get caught out in the open, and we did,” he says.
When the U.S. ramped up its weapons shipments to Ukraine to fend off Russia’s invasion, it drew down from existing stockpiles and didn’t increase spending on industrial production enough to fill the hole, says Katherine Thompson, a former Pentagon official at the beginning of Trump’s second term who is now a defense expert at the Cato Institute. When Biden and Congress approved massive weapons shipments to Ukraine, those bills blew through a previous $100 million limit on raiding U.S. stockpiles to transfer weapons to allies, Thompson says. “To be fair to the Trump Administration, they inherited this problem from mass draw downs of U.S. stocks,” she says.
The massive domestic policy package Trump signed last summer included about $150 billion for spending on military and national defense. But that funding wasn’t set to be used for increasing the supplies of THAAD or Patriot missiles for use overseas, Thompson says.
The way out of this problem, Brobst says, is to purchase more munitions and place multi-year orders that create an incentive for manufacturers to invest in expanding production facilities. “The root cause of this shortage is the fact that successive administrations failed to procure the necessary number of interceptors over many years. This led to production lines slowing down or even shuttering.”
The Pentagon has taken some steps to ramp up production, including signing a framework agreement with Lockheed Martin in January to quadruple THAAD production over the next 7 years from 96 to 400 interceptors per year. The U.S. also recently announced plans to work with defense contractor L3 Harris to increase the production of crucial propulsion systems for such missiles. Those actions will take time to have an impact.
Trump is expected to meet with defense executives later this week, with stockpile concerns among the topics.
“This is what happens when the President and Congress willfully remove restraints on U.S. stocks,” Thompson says. “That should never have been done and these are the consequences for it.”
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