Anyone who’s followed more than a single baseball season knows that the number of times everything goes right for a team for a full season is roughly equal to zero. Even in the Cubs’ magical 2016 campaign, when they miraculously had FIVE starting pitchers make 29+ starts (in what world…), they had several other things go demonstrably wrong: Kyle Schwarber’s knee injury two games into the season, Jason Heyward turning into a pumpkin overnight … actually, that may have been the only two things. It was a pretty great year. But you get the idea.
But for as certain as I am in reminding you that not everything will go right for the 2026 Chicago Cubs, I am equally certain that plenty will. And I thought it would be fun to lay out those most optimistic and potentially impactful scenarios below. You can call them bold predictions if you’d like, but I’m not actually guessing these things will happen. I just want to outline what the best version of the most impactful seasons could look like.
Edward Cabrera Stays Healthy
I’ve said this before, but I think it’s worth repeating: If every player on the Cubs hit their 90th percentile outcomes in 2026, Edward Cabrera strikes me as the guy who’d have the greatest impact. Another way of saying that, I think, is that he has the highest ceiling of anyone on the team right now. At least, any pitcher. Yes, he has a deep floor too, both in terms of injury risk and a penchant for wildness. But the highest ceiling.
And it’s worth reminding you that, for about half-a-season last year, he actually achieved those heights (May 1 – August 8): 16 starts, 2.22 ERA, 26.6 K%, 6.8 BB%, and a 50% groundball rate. That’s the sort of production you can dream about him reaching in 2026.
Indeed, if Edward Cabrera stays healthy for 25-30 starts next year, he could transform this Cubs rotation overnight and for the next three seasons.
ZiPS Projection: 25 starts, 130.0 IP, 3.88 ERA
© Matt Kartozian-Imagn ImagesPete Crow-Armstrong Goes 30-30 Again
Yes, yes, we all know PCA slumped offensively in the second half of last season, but unlike all of the White Sox and Dodgers fans on social media, I don’t think that means he’s going to stay down there again this year.
For one thing, the #haterz are too quick to forget that his All-star caliber offensive production was NOT limited to just the first-half of 2025. He also had a great end to the 2024 season. In the 602 PAs from July 28, 2024 to July 10, 2025, Pete Crow-Armstrong slashed .277/.318/.524 with 32 homers, 36 stolen bases, 101 Runs, and 100 RBI. And he did all that with a 22.8% strikeout rate and a 12.6 barrel%.
Plus, he STILL hasn’t turned 24 years old.
I know the slump last year was bad, but some people talk about one of the hardest-working, most physically gifted young players, who could easily still be in Triple-A given his age and who has already succeeded in the big leagues as though his development is … over. Like he can’t adjust back. That’s nonsense. I don’t think it’s crazy to believe that he could go back to being a superstar. And boy, would that change the outlook of this season in a hurry.
The good news is even if he is merely a league-average bat (as he has been for 1076 PAs in his big league career), his base running and defense will still result in a ~4.0 WAR season.
ZiPS Projection: 111 wRC+, 25 HRs, 32 SBs
© Charles LeClaire-Imagn ImagesMiguel Amaya Continues His Offensive Ascension
Because of Carson Kelly’s career year and the capable production of Amaya’s replacement, Reese McGuire, in 2025, we don’t talk much about the Cubs’ catching picture heading into this season. And we certainly don’t talk enough about the potential upside lurking in the bat of Miguel Amaya.
But don’t sleep on the impact those mid-2024 swing changes had on his production down the stretch that year and when he was healthy in 2025. This is a former top prospect who was always an above-average offensive contributor up the minor league ladder, who finally started putting it all together after significant swing change and approach adjustments.
As a reminder, here’s what went down back in July 2024:
At the behest of Cubs manager Craig Counsell, Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly and assistant hitting coaches Juan Cabreja and John Mallee instructed Miguel Amaya to lose the leg kick he had deployed in his swing periodically throughout his entire career. “With the leg kick, it was hard for him to consistently have good timing and rhythm and so we talked with him,” Cabreja said via Andy Martinez at Marquee.
But at first, Amaya was resistant. He felt like he didn’t have the same strength without the leg kick. “He was scared because he felt weak,” Cabreja said. “He didn’t feel strong. In the cage, he felt weak and without any force.”
Which is when Cabreja reached out to legendary hitter Nelson Cruz to deliver a most hilarious message. Effectively, Cruz said to Amaya, you have nothing to lose … you’re “hitting .186.”
From July 7 to the end of the 2024 season, Amaya slashed .282/.331/.468 (123 wRC+) while striking out just 11.6% of the time. And although he was healthy for just 103 PAs last year, that production carried forward: .281/.314/.500 (124 wRC+).
So in my mind, a full, healthy season of Miguel Amaya could dramatically raise the offensive floor of this team. Sure, the Cubs lineup has enough firepower to withstand an average (or even slightly below average) offensive season from both catchers. But if Amaya actually remained an impact bat over the course of the season? That’d be a HUGE boost to the bottom half of the order.
ZiPS Projection: .239/.309/.387 (97 wRC+), 7 HRs
© Rick Scuteri-Imagn ImagesDaniel Palencia is THAT Sort of Closer
Daniel Palencia wasn’t the Cubs’ first or even second choice as closer last year. And he ultimately didn’t play that role in the postseason, either. But we all saw what he was capable of for most of last season. Getting that version of Palencia back as the Cubs’ closer this year would answer one of the team’s only obvious questions heading into this season.
In terms of how likely I think that is to happen, who could honestly say? All relief production is fickle in nature, and a hard-throwing, previously wild, short trackrecord arm like Palencia takes that to the extreme. But I also think it’s worth remembering how great he looked even after returning from his September IL stint.
Or to put that another way: Yes, Palencia stumbled a bit in September and hit the IL, but he came back for two scoreless appearances before the regular season ended and then had a great showing in the playoffs, acting as Craig Counsell’s mid-game, high-leverage fireman.
He’s already been crowned closer of this team, and I think he has a chance to be one of the most dominant relievers in the game. Simply put, he has the stuff (velo, movement) of a modern-day closer, which is just not something the Cubs have had a lot of … ever, really.
ZiPS Projection: 30 Saves, 3.74 ERA
© Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn ImagesJustin Steele Doesn’t Miss a Beat
The good news about Justin Steele’s recovery has been hard to miss. Over the weekend, we learned that he’s been cleared to start ramping up, and we’ve seen a few full-intent bullpen sessions out of Arizona already.
Even though his return is still scheduled for around May, I think we are a little too flippant about how great this Cubs rotation could be if he actually looked like himself when he gets back.
In the 308.0 innings pitched from 2023-2024, Justin Steele’s 3.07 ERA was the SECOND BEST IN BASEBALL behind only Gerrit Cole. During that time, his 4.9% barrel rate was the single best in the league while his 4.26 K/BB ratio ranked 8th best. If the Cubs get him back, they have a chance to have a pretty dominant and formidable postseason rotation if/when it comes down to that.
Once again, I’m not saying that is particularly likely to happen. In fact, it’s probably unfair to assume it will. But this is a guy who is still in his prime, who had been absolutely rolling the league before he got hurt. It’s tough to imagine many more impactful outcomes in 2026 than a healthy and effective Justin Steele returning to this rotation.
ZiPS Projection: 24 starts, 3.52 ERA
© Ed Szczepanski-Imagn ImagesHonorable Mentions
Shota and Boyd run it back. Both Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga have, for extended periods of time, displayed top-of-the-rotation production over the last two years (though it obviously didn’t end well for either last season). If one or both could recapture the magic in 2026, that would be a huge lift to the Cubs t What if Michael Busch takes an Anthony Rizzo-esque turn versus lefties this season? Even if he didn’t improve against lefties next year, Busch is still going to be a hugely impactful offensive piece for the Cubs. I mean, the guy had a 140 wRC+ with 34 homers over 592 PAs despite being a zero versus southpaws. But if he actually finds a way to be even average against them? Well, then we’re talking about one of the best hitters in baseball leading off most days for the Chicago Cubs.If you’re wondering why I brought up Anthony Rizzo …
Anthony Rizzo vs. Lefties in 2013: 75 wRC+ Anthony Rizzo vs Lefties in 2014: 165 wRC+ (LOL)That was … unusual, but when you’re talking about a left-handed Cubs first baseman who struggled against lefties but crushed righties and is looking to make an improvement over the offseason, Rizzo came immediately to mind.
Alex Bregman goes back to the guy he was in the first-half last season. Before his injury last year, Alex Bregman was on one HELL of a run (226 PAs): .299/.385/.553 (156 wRC+). And it’s not like he’s never been up there before. With any luck, his injury really is what slowed him down, and he still has a little bit more elite production left in the tank. Nico Hoerner’s new SLG prowess holds true. Like Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner doesn’t actually have to improve to be a valuable player this season. When he’s just a league-average bat with plus-plus defense and base running, he’s valuable enough to start on any team. But there was a major turn in his production throughout the second half last year, and it’s one of my favorite things to bring up: After slugging just .374 through July 28 of last season, Nico Hoerner slashed .313/.361/.431 (123 wRC+) the rest of the way. That’s a dramatically different player and a much more well-rounded offensive weapon. And although his barrel rate didn’t rise dramatically, he did start hitting the ball hard (27.9% –> 34.7%) and on a line (18.2% –> 24.5%) much more often. Moises Ballesteros is actually just awesome right away. Small sample or not, the things Moises Ballesteros did as a 21-year-old in the big leagues last season were EYE POPPING: .298/.394/.474 (13.6 BB%, 18.2 K%). Expecting him to be that good is insanely unfair … but also completely possible. This guy is one of the best pure hitters the Cubs have had come through their system in a while. It may not all come together this season, but he literally hasn’t struggled even ONCE yet. So … can you imagine?And I can go on: Maybe Ian Happ becomes an on-base machine. Maybe Cade Horton picks up where he left off. Maybe the ABS flips a ton of incorrect Seiya Suzuki K’s into walks or longer at-bats that result in production. Maybe Ben Brown’s new sinker changes everything for him. Maybe Dansby Swanson has one last power pop. And so on.
A lot of things can and will go wrong this year. And the outcomes I listed above are basically the best-case scenarios. But some of these things will happen, and if enough of them do, the Cubs can go from being a very good team to a great one.
So now, I ask you: It’s spring training. Be optimistic. Which best-case scenario do you think could actually happen for the Cubs this year, and which will have the biggest impact on the team?
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