When Sir Keir Starmer welcomed Donald Trump to London in early 2025, there were signs of an unexpected political double-act.
Despite clear political differences, a reinvigorated “special relationship” was on the cards with Trump’s affection for the UK, rooted in his Scottish heritage and admiration for the Royal Family, as the foundation for fruitful cooperation between London and Washington.
But political reality has since intervened and the transatlantic partnership, long regarded as the bedrock of Western security, has been placed under severe strain – not helped by a clash over military support for US action against Iran which has seen the US President mock Starmer as “no Winston Churchill.”
A bond underpinned by deep, daily cooperation through intelligence sharing and joint foreign policy is teetering on the brink, with Trump publicly declaring the relationship is “not what it was”.
His comments have amplified doubts about the relationship throughout corridors in London and Washington, where the “adults” – diplomats and intelligence officers – have long worked hard behind the scenes to ensure that political events do not affect the long-standing, vital security relationship between UK and US agencies.
However, one US intelligence source, speaking anonymously, admitted “there are many adults left on this side anymore.”
Intelligence sharing
For decades, the UK and US have formed the backbone of the Five Eyes Western intelligence alliance, which also includes Canada, Australia and New Zealand. It has allowed member nations to share highly classified intelligence to identify and combat national security threats from terrorism to cyber crime.
While there have been periods of strain in the relationship since the alliance’s inception in 1941, co-operation across the Atlantic has always prevailed leading to references of a “Two-Eyes” alliance between the US and UK.
However, officials in both capitals have grown uneasy during Trump’s second term. UK intelligence officials have feared that the US President could use sensitive information as leverage in international negotiations, prompting informal assurances from London last year to “steady nerves and maintain long-standing agreements”.
Since then, the US President has threatened intelligence sharing with the UK, Canada and Ukraine to force foreign policy in his favour. Disputes over the sovereignty of Greenland, the UK’s deal to hand over the Chagos islands and the UK’s reluctance to support US strikes on suspected drug smugglers in the Caribbean have only increased fears within Whitehall and beyond.
The UK has sent HMS Dragon, a Type 45 Daring-class air-defence destroyer warship, to Cyprus after Britain’s RAF Akrotiri base was struck by an Iranian-made drone (Photo: Justin Tallis/Getty)In intelligence circles, trust is currency. Trump’s use of intelligence as a bargaining chip, along with his public criticism of the UK’s stature on the world stage, is damaging. The UK’s access to top-tier US intelligence, including highly classified information on counter-terrorism, cyber threats and hostile states, is contingent on mutual confidence.
Erosion of that confidence could see the UK shut out of the most sensitive channels at a time when global threats are intensifying, weakening Britain’s security posture and its ability to pre-empt and protect against dangers before they reach UK soil.
Trade deals
Starmer’s hope for a robust UK–US trade relationship may also run into turbulence with potential implications for British businesses and jobs.
Last year, London and Washington celebrated a landmark economic partnership that reduced tariffs on goods and promised to save thousands of jobs for British car makers and the steel industry. A UK Government briefing described it as a transformative agreement that would “put rocket boosters on the UK economy”.
But since then, the picture has darkened. The implementation of a £31bn technology “prosperity deal”, described by Starmer as “a generational stepchange in our relationship with the US”, has since been paused by Washington amid US frustrations over the UK’s lack of progress in lowering trade barriers.
The fiasco served as a reminder to the Prime Minister that any deal with the White House can be quickly pulled from under you. Even more so when key political differences are aired in the public sphere.
This week, the US President demonstrated his willingness to pull agreements when he threatened to halt all trade with Spain after the country barred the US from using its military bases for operations in Iran.
The two leaders in happier times – Trump now says the special relationship is ‘not what it was’ (Photo: Stefan Rousseau/PA)On Tuesday, Trump claimed Spain had been “terrible” and said “we’re going to cut off all trade”.
He added: “I could tomorrow – or today, even better – stop everything having to do with Spain, all business having to do with Spain”.
Trump’s use of trade talks as a diplomatic tool matters hugely to the UK. The US, as one of Britain’s largest export markets, can underpin any economic growth, investment and employment rates. A faltering or chaotic US trade relationship risks leaving British companies vulnerable.
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As Trump and Starmer navigate this fraught chapter, there is a significant risk that this era of transactional, unpredictable diplomacy will leave the UK weaker on intelligence fronts, trade and on the world stage.
In both intelligence and economic standing, the “special relationship” is no longer presumed. It hinges, as it always has, on trust and sustained cooperation.
The question now is whether diplomats and officials can rebuild that underlying trust, or whether, as Trump says, the special relationship is no longer what it once was.
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