Arab states in the Persian Gulf tried to prevent a US-Israeli strike on Iran. Now, as Tehran retaliates, their own territories are under fire.
Iran’s neighbors have spent decades preparing for a potential attack. But the ferocity of Tehran’s retaliation has left both governments and people of the region stunned.
Since the Islamic Republic took power almost half a century ago, oil-rich US-allied Arab states have fortified themselves against their neighbor by spending hundreds of billions of dollars on American weapons and hosting US bases in the hope of deterring an attack. Up to 40,000 American troops are stationed across the region, equipped with advanced US missile-defense systems.
For decades, Iran has protested the presence of US troops across from its shores, repeatedly warning its Arab neighbors that states hosting American military assets could be targeted in the event of a US attack on the country.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in an airstrike this week that also took out 49 other top Iranian officials, US President Donald Trump said. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Monday that Iran’s “nuclear pursuits” and the “swelling arsenal of ballistic missiles and killer drones” are “no longer tolerable.”
As the US military began massing military assets near Iran over the past few weeks, Tehran repeatedly warned that any US attack would not be met with the same “restraint” it showed during last summer’s 12-day war, which started when Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran that eventually drew in the United States.
Still, the response to Khamenei’s killing has triggered a response that few observers expected. The regime has fired more than 400 ballistic missiles and almost 1,000 drones at Arab states along the Persian Gulf since Khamenei’s killing, according to regional governments.
Even more striking was the rapid escalation by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Tactics once considered a last resort were deployed within the first 72 hours. Urban centers, energy infrastructure, airports and hotels across the gulf’s Arab states were hit, shaking populations long used to their relatively security.
Ironically, some of the very gulf states that had urged the Trump administration just weeks ago not to strike Iran were the ones that came under fire when war erupted.
Iran deploys ‘mosaic defense’
A satellite image shows smoke rising in the Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia after a drone attack on Monday, March 2.Vantor/Handout/Reuters
In three days, Iran’s devastating blows crippled the gulf’s tourism industry, knocked some oil and gas facilities offline, targeted international airports and US bases, killed American soldiers, injured dozens of civilians and sowed widespread chaos that eventually caused the downing of three US fighter jets in friendly fire.
Iranian forces switched to a “mosaic defense” tactic, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, deploying cells of military units operating under a decentralized system to conduct clandestine drone and missile launches from across the large country. Experts say mobile launchers designed to look like civilian trucks can easily launch cheaply produced drones and short-range ballistic missiles.
Although the Trump administration unleashed what Hegseth said was “the most lethal and precise air power campaign in history,” Iran has managed to continue wreaking havoc on its neighbors over three days.
Airplanes are parked at the Dubai International Airport after its closure in the United Arab Emirates, on Sunday, March 1.Altaf Qadri/AP
The escalating strikes have forced airspace closures, stranded tens of thousands of travelers, shifted schools to remote learning and kept fearful residents indoors to avoid falling debris.
“We’ve had two decades to study defeats of the US military to our immediate east and west,” Araghchi wrote on X, referring to Afghanistan and Iraq. “We’ve incorporated lessons accordingly.”
Iranian military units have now turned “independent” and “isolated,” acting on general instructions given to them in advance, Araghchi told Al Jazeera in an interview.
Arab leaders have sought to calm nationals and expatriate residents who chose to move to the Persian Gulf region for stability, safety and the promise of prosperity, but who are increasingly growing uneasy as the conflict becomes more chaotic. And patience is starting to wear thin.
One senior gulf official described Iran’s strikes on its neighbors — particularly its archrival Saudi Arabia — as a “miscalculation” and told CNN that Tehran had “lost all goodwill from Islamic and Arab states.”
Gulf Arab states ‘in a very difficult place’
Smoke is seen rising over Abu Dhabi, UAE, on Saturday, Febraury 28.CNN
The United Arab Emirates will “not sit idly by” as it continues to receive “a barrage of attacks,” Reem Al Hashimy, the UAE minister of state for international cooperation, told CNN. Similarly, Qatar said it “reserves the right to retaliate” against Iran, and Saudi Arabia said it will “take all necessary measures” to defend its security, including “the option of responding to the aggression.”
“I know it’s a scary time for a lot of the residents,” Al Hashimy said. “I do think it is important we reaffirm to the people of the UAE … we have one of the best missile defense systems in the world and that we are doing everything to ensure that we continue to be safe and secure,” she added. When Iran launched its missile attacks, the UAE was among the region’s best prepared — armed with one of the Middle East’s most advanced US-backed air defense systems.
Over two days, it intercepted the largest barrage of projectiles ever fired at the country. The effort relied heavily on the US-supplied Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, designed to intercept missiles at very high altitude, including outside the earth’s atmosphere. In nearby Qatar, Patriot missiles and fighter jets were dispatched to counter projectiles.
But as top Iranian officials signal a lengthy conflict, and without clear goals set by the Trump administration, it remains unclear how long Arab states can sustain their air defenses before depletion.
During Israel’s 12-day war with Iran in June last year, the US blew through about a quarter of its THAAD missile interceptors. The US has seven THAAD systems and used two of them in Israel during the conflict.
Also unclear is how much Iran has depleted its missile and drone stockpiles. Across four major episodes of direct conflict from April 2024 up to this week, Iran has launched thousands of projectiles — including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones — in almost two dozen waves targeting Israel and Arab countries in the gulf.
Firas Maksad of the Eurasia Group told CNN that Iran has a lot more short-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching its immediate neighbors compared to long-range projectiles, making targets in gulf Arab nations easier to hit.
“What the Iranians have a lot more of are short-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching the gulf, and thousands of (quickly) manufacturable suicide drones. So, as the Iranians run out of the long-range stuff, the center of gravity of this conflict is increasingly shifting to the GCC and oil infrastructure,” he said, referring to the six Arab states of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Iran can sustain the current rate of fire on gulf nations for about a month, said Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute specializing in Iranian security and defense.
“If they reduce their rate of fire by launching one or more missiles, or launching 50 to 70 drones, they can keep the countries under stress for many months,” Nadimi said.
Gulf Arab states are in a “very difficult place, to put it mildly,” Maksad said. “And I worry that they’re going to continue to be in a difficult place for some days and weeks ahead.”
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