The conflict between Iran, the US and Israel could escalate into a wider war across the Middle East and raises the global terrorist threat, experts have warned.
US-Israeli strikes on Iran continued on Sunday after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threw the future of the Islamic Republic into uncertainty.
Tehran retaliated by firing missiles at Israel and US military bases across the Gulf, as well as at targets in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar and United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The fighting expanded on Monday to include militias backed by Tehran with strikes by Hezbollah on Israel, which then struck back against the group in Lebanon.
Donald Trump said he wanted to stop Iran from developing nuclear capabilities. “They can never have a nuclear weapon,” he declared.
Both the US President and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu also want regime change – urging Iranians to revolt against their leaders. “This will be, probably, your only chance for generations,” claimed Trump.
But experts have cautioned against hopes of a transition to Iranian democracy – predicting that the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may now take control of the country.
They also warned of “messy” consequences ahead: wider regional conflict; increased terrorism risk; naval confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz; economic turmoil and slowdown; and the possibility of a US ground invasion in Iran.
Here, they describe to The i Paper five potential ways the crisis could develop.
Iranians gather at a square in Tehran to mourn the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP)Expanding Middle East war
Dr Marion Messmer, director of Chatham House’s International Security Programme, warned of the risk of a wider war across the Middle East. “Even with a weakened Iranian government, there is a risk of this conflict escalating and drawing other states in,” she said.
Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East programme at Chatham House, said the conflict was “unlikely to end quickly”, and that Iran’s strikes against Gulf states show a desire to “expand the theatre” and “externalise the conflict rather than absorb the blows quietly”.
Dr Vakil said Iran’s allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen could be be “drawn in more directly” into hitting US targets and the targets of its allies across the Middle East.
Bronwen Maddox, director of Chatham House, warned against US hopes of a transition to democracy in Iran and said the path ahead was “messy” and full of “enormous risk”.
She said the IRGC was already running much of the economy and would fight back, and the “worst-case scenario” was that an IRGC-ruled Iran would continue to hit other neighbouring countries and draw them into a wider war.
Maddox also said she believed that ongoing conflict could encourage Arab countries to “pull away from the US”, and from any talks about stabilising Gaza.
Javed Ali, former senior director for counterterrorism at the US National Security Council (NSC), told The i Paper that it was not clear what Gulf states would do next. “These countries didn’t want the conflict,” said the University of Michigan professor. “At the moment, they are on the defensive. What happens next will all depend on how destructive Iranian attacks are in these countries.”
Emergency personnel carry a body at the site of an Iranian strike in Beit Shemesh, Israel, after Iran launched missile barrages (Photo: Ammar Awad/Reuters)Other nations including UK being drawn in
The UK was forced to shoot down an Iranian drone heading towards British personnel in Iraq on Saturday. And hundreds of UK troops were just 200m away from an Iranian missile attack in Bahrain.
Later on Sunday, a British typhoon shot down a drone in Qatar. And an Iranian drone strike hit a British air base in Cyprus overnight, causing limited damage and no casualties.
In a sign of shift from his initial neutrality, Keir Starmer gave the US permission to launch military strikes against Iran from British bases.
The PM said British forces would not be directly involved in the strikes, but the bases would be used for the “specific and limited defensive purpose” of targeting missile storage depots and launchers being used to attack Iran’s neighbours.
A naval base hosting French forces in Abu Dhabi was hit by an Iranian drone attack on Sunday. It caused a fire but no casualties.
Dr Seyed Ali Alavi, lecturer in Middle Eastern and Iranian Studies at Soas University of London, told The i Paper: “The UK and other Nato members could be drawn in if the conflict escalates further, particularly if Western personnel or assets in the region come under attack.”
Although Russia has acted as a key supplier of weapons for Iran, Prof Ali does not expect Russia or China to be drawn into a damaging conflict directly. “I don’t see Russia or China wanting to do a lot to help Iran,” he said. “China is going to feel the pinch in delays getting oil in.”
Mohammed Hafez, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, told The i Paper that Russia and China will be in a “wait and see mode”, adding: “Russia is entangled in its own war in Ukraine and cannot offer Iran capabilities to counter the might of US-Israel alliance.”
Shia Muslims throw stones at police during a protest to condemn the killing of Ayatollah Khameini near the US Consulate in Karachi, Pakistan (Photo: Ali Raza/AP)Terrorism and cyber attacks in the West
Prof Ali said there appeared to be “no restraint” from Iran in its response to the US-Israel attack – predicting Tehran would be “taking the gloves off”.
There is a raised risk of terror and cyber attacks on US and Israeli targets by the Quds Force – a unit of the IRGC – and proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, he warned: “Iran is facing an existential threat, and if backed into this corner, then trying to impose costs through unconventional, asymmetric means is one way to impose costs on US, Israel and the West.”
Defence Secretary has John Healey said Britain’s terror threat level is under review, warning that the Iranian regime appeared to be “lashing out”.
Ali said the risk of terrorism in the UK was currently “low” after its “defensive action”, but it was “difficult to predict” where Iran or its proxies may strike.
Iran already has a blueprint for terror attacks involving sleeper cells and proxy groups in Britain and elsewhere in Europe, experts have warned. MI5 warned last year that Tehran had been behind 20 potentially lethal plots on UK soil in the previous 12 months.
Tressa Guenov – a senior fellow at the Scowcroft Centre for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council think tank – warned of increased risk of terrorism across the Western world.
“Iran could look to conduct attempted assassinations, terror attacks, cyber attacks, kidnappings, or sabotage against civilian or military targets,” she said. “It could still look to activate Houthi or Hezbollah proxies, for example, or conduct more expeditionary attacks via recruited individuals in Europe, the United States, or elsewhere.”
US ‘boots on the ground’
Donald Trump monitoring the military operation against Iran (Photo: The White House/AFP)Some experts have warned that the US may have to send troops into Iran, even if Donald Trump does not want to do so at the moment.
Laurel Rapp, director of Chatham House’s US Programme, said Trump’s move was predicated on the “untested proposition” that the Iranian people will quickly rise up. She warned that the revolution that Trump wanted to see typically needs boots on the ground: “Should a massive revolt fail to materialise, the Trump administration will face a fork in the road: fold or double down.”
Dr Hafez said the US would have to go further to effect regime change and put “boots on the ground”. But he doesn’t think it will happen anytime soon.
“I don’t think the US administration has an appetite or domestic support for boots on the ground – not in an election year,” said the security expert.
Javed Ali does not think Trump will commit to a ground war, since the American public does not have the appetite. “Even if the Iranians got incredibly lucky and managed to pull off a small-scale terrorist attack, I don’t think it would cause boots on the ground,” he said.
Dr Alavi also said a large-scale US ground invasion similar to Iraq in 2003 appeared “highly unlikely” at the moment “given the enormous costs”.
Economic turmoil and confrontation in the seas
Dr Alavi added that the rise of a large-scale US ground invasion similar to Iraq in 2003 “appears highly unlikely, given the enormous costs”.
But he and others warned of economic turmoil ahead. “Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could increase, raising the possibility of naval confrontations,” he said.
Dozens of tankers have reportedly already decided against passing through the Strait of Hormuz – the major sea trade route between Iran and the Gulf states – instead taking refuge in the UAE and Qatar, or keeping clear of the area altogether.
Global oil prices have already surged and financial markets have faltered, as strikes on ships drive fears of energy supply disruption.
Some have warned that energy prices could spike further if the Yemen-based Houthis resume attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea corridor – another key shipping route.
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Nic Adams, a senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said the Gulf states would be likely to lead the push for de-escalation in the coming days.
He said the conflict “threatens their economic development models based on energy exports, tourism, and the attraction of wealthy expats”.
Trump has sent mixed messages on whether he is prepared for conflict with Iran over the long haul. “I can go long and take over the whole thing, or end it in two or three days”, the US President told Axios.
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