Iran’s Supreme Leader has been granted his supposed heart’s desire, killed by the Great Satan at the age of 86. “Sometimes I imagine myself dying from an accident or maybe a fever,” said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in one sermon repeated on state television after his assassination. “And my heart becomes so filled with sadness that the chance of competing for paradise will be taken away from me that way.” So he must be happy now, after being “martyred” along with family members in Saturday’s air strikes on his official compound.
Forgive my sarcasm. But few people will be surprised that this cruel bigot’s life ended violently after almost four decades of hellish rule over his citizens. And no decent person should mourn the death of a despot who oversaw the slaughter, torture and jailing of thousands of Iranians who dared so courageously to fight for freedom.
Khamenei died in the first wave of attacks by the United States and Israel that mark both a continuation of the war started over 12 days last June – when the White House falsely claimed to have “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities – and the culmination of almost half a century of enmity between Tehran and Washington.
So the kaleidoscope gets shaken again in a bid to reshape the world. “One of the most evil people in History is dead,” declared Donald Trump with typical overstatement, adding that his onslaught against Iran, and killing of their Supreme Leader, delivers “the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country”.
The US and Israel have set regime change as their target, hoping to inflict sufficient wounds for a successful uprising rather than sending their boots onto the ground, so the gruesome collection of clerics and thugs running Tehran know their survival is at stake – demonstrated by the range of retaliatory strikes against six Western allies in the region as well as Israel.
The attacks on Iran raise many questions – over Trump’s hypocrisy as a man who posed as a peacemaker to win power before launching military operations in seven countries in barely a year; over the constitutional impropriety of this self-obsessed President; over his support for a toxic government in Israel; over the shattering of the Western alliance exposed by Europe’s reluctance to aid the assaults; even over the fact these actions inadvertently give Russia superficial justification, and an economic boost through rising energy prices, to aid their attempts at regime change in Ukraine.
But the central issue for now is whether this decapitation strategy launched from the skies – reportedly encouraged by Iran’s regional rival Saudi Arabia – can really usher in an era of peace, prosperity and stability for a pivotal Middle Eastern nation and its repressed 90 million people?
History, sadly, suggests it is unlikely. As we have seen too often – from the optimism shown at start of the First World War through to Vladimir Putin’s belief that he would rapidly grab Kyiv – wars rarely go to plan. Certainly, the intelligence underlying the targeting of these attacks seems extremely well informed – but politicians have a terrifying tendency to see regime change as a safe, simple solution to complex global problems.
It is not just the dark shadow of the Iraq debacle that hangs over this conflict. Bear in mind also the curse of mission creep, seen so disastrously in Afghanistan after a valid security aim – to crush religious fanatics behind a horrific attack on US soil – became superseded by a misguided attempt by naive foreigners to impose Western-style democracy.
As Trump’s self-serving intervention in Venezuela demonstrated, regime change from outside must go much deeper than simply cutting off the monster’s head. It needs to dismantle the system that sustains rule based on coercion and fear – not just by destroying military bases and torture centres, but eroding a regime’s abilities to raise cash, communicate internally and transport forces to hotspots.
Ultimately, the machinery of repression must be paralysed for a population to shake off the shackles of state-imposed terror. The Iranian rulers have been weakened badly – with key figures killed and buildings targeted – but they were also well prepared, focused intently on their system’s survival.
Perhaps a more moderate Islamic regime will emerge, adopting the Venezuelan model of pragmatic co-operation with a loathed enemy to save their skins. Note how Oman, a close Western ally, was spared from initial Iranian attacks. It has been a mediator between Tehran and Washington, suggesting possible desire to keep this diplomatic channel open.
Yet as history shows, foreigners bombing cities and slaughtering schoolchildren tend to inflame tensions, fuel nationalism and foster hatred against them. And even if popular revolt overthrows Iran’s theocracy, prospects for a peaceful democracy serenely emerging in this multi-ethnic country battered by decades of misrule and years of sanctions are dim, especially given the lack of coherent opposition.
I can recall the joyful mood of celebration in Tripoli after the ousting of another long-serving dictator with the help of Western military power. But those Libyans saw hopes of democracy crumble despite successful elections, as their nation descended into chaos and factionalism, intensified by outside meddling.
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It is reported that days before these strikes against Iran, Trump’s envoy went to Iraqi Kurdistan to urge Iranian Kurds to revolt. But many will remember how a previous US president in 1991 urged “the Iraqi people to fill the streets and alleys and bring down Saddam Hussein and his aides” – only to be betrayed by Washington, leading to slaughter and displacement.
Israel’s leaders would delight in Iran’s fragmentation. And Trump is a corrupt, capricious and duplicitous character with the attention span of a gnat and morals of an alley cat. In his inaugural speech, he pledged to “stop all wars and bring a new spirit of unity to a world that has been angry, violent and totally unpredictable”.
Instead – while Iranians cheer the death of their despotic ogre and we must hope fervently for their freedom – history shows clearly the risk of another military misadventure making our world even more turbulent, in the bloodstained quicksands of the Middle East.
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