How likely does US-Iran conflict make a missile attack on the West? ...Middle East

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Donald Trump launched his much-anticipated attack on Iran in conjunction with Israel as he called for the country’s forces to lay down their arms.

Iran warned last month amid escalating tensions that “its finger is on the trigger” with Ayatollah Khamenei promising that US forces in the region would be legitimate targets if it were attacked.

On Saturday morning, blasts were reported across Iran. In response, Iran launched a wave of missile and drone strikes on Israel.

But the retaliation has seemingly not been limited to Israel with reports of strikes in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain where there are US bases. Due to the fragility of Iran’s regime following nationwide protests, any response could be more unpredictable and more wide-ranging.

How has Iran responded – what more could it do?

As reported, air raid sirens have been initiated across Israel as well as take shelter warnings.

One person has so far been killed in Bahrain while Qatar has closed it’s airspace amid attacks on a US base in the country. There were reports that UK Typhoon jets were used to defend Qatari bases.

Recent weeks have also seen a huge movement of US military to the region amid rising tensions and threats of war. At least 128 US military aircraft have flown to bases in Europe and the Middle East since the beginning of January, in one of the largest deployments since the Iraq invasion in 2003.

The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, departs from Souda Naval Base near Chania on the island of Crete, Greece on Thursday (Photo: AP/Giannis Angelakis)

These ships will likely be primary targets for Iranian missiles strikes and drone attacks.

But according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), attacks would likely include electronic warfare which could see Iran try to disrupt communication links between drones, and that Russia and China could assist in order to access key battlefield information.

Another option could see Iran opt to retaliate through a maritime attack either through a targeted strike or by laying mines by the Strait of Hormuz, which would disrupt the global oil market. Iranian proxies, such as the Houthi rebels, may also be activated in the valuable trade route which see approximately 20 per cent of global oil pass through.

The regime could combine missiles, drones, and mines to try and sink a US ship in order to send a message. Concerns have been raised that Iran could launch a “swarm attack” in which they send a barrage of high explosive drones and fast torpedo boats at one time, which would limit the US Navy’s chance to respond.

Where are the UK and US bases

The UK has a key strategic airbase in Diego Garcia, the largest of the Chagos Islands, and Trump has previously said that it would be necessary for the US to have use of it in an attack. The government has said no UK bases were involved in the strikes on Iran.

Last Thursday, Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social: “Should Iran decide not to make a deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the [RAF] Airfield location in Fairford [Gloucestershire], in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous regime.”

Permission to use the bases has been denied, but The i Paper revealed last week that 28 military flights have used airbases in the UK and Cyprus to help build up US military power in the Middle East.

There are US bases and facilities along the Arabian side of the Gulf, in Bahrain and Qatar, but Iran could also take aim at any nation it considered complicit in a US attack.

The US Navy’s Fleet in Bahrain is a potential target for Iranian retaliation (Photo: Planet Labs PBC via AP)

Bahrainhe hosts US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, and the US embassy have warned citizens to shelter-in-place after threats from missiles and drones.

Ballistic missiles and drones, many of which are currently hidden underground, in caves and remote areas, could be used to target critical infrastructure.

In response to the US strikes of June 2025, Tehran launched 14 missiles at a US airbase in Qatar. Ultimately, direct missile strikes on the US or Western allies is unlikely, but Iran could activate terror cells or launch cyberattacks.

What missiles does Iran have access to?

According to the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Iran has the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the Middle East.

These crucial rocket-propelled weapons have range of 1,240miles and deliver warheads which can contain either conventional explosives or, potentially, biological or chemical munitions

According to Arms Control Association, a Washington-based think tank, Iran’s ballistic arsenal included the Shahab-1, with an estimated range of 186 miles; the Zolfaghar, 430miles ; Shahab-3, 500-620miles; Emad-1, under development, 1,200 miles; and a Sejil model under development, 930-1,500 miles.

There are concerns that the missiles could be used to deliver nuclear weapons, although Iran denies that it intends to build atomic bombs.

Iran has many missile sites in Tehran, but there are also at least five underground sites dotted in regions across the country, including Kermanshah and Semnan, and near the Gulf region.

In June 2025, during the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, the regime fired 550 ballistic missiles and over a thousand one-way attack drones.

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