The college basketball postseason is right around the corner.
In advance of March Madness, it’s a good time to break down some potential nightmare matchups for SEC programs.
A caveat: this story will only focus on SEC teams who are currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament (or have a reasonable shot to do so). According to BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model, there are 10 SEC teams with at least a 50% chance to make the NCAA Tournament. The teams below that line did not make it into this story.
March Madness nightmare matchups
With that in mind, let’s dive in
Alabama
Alabama more or less has the same profile that it always has under Nate Oats. The Crimson Tide shoot a ton of 3-pointers and they don’t turn the ball over. Defensively, Alabama is always among the worst in the SEC in forcing turnovers. This year, Alabama is 363rd out of 365 Division I teams in defensive turnover rate. I think Alabama doesn’t want to see a team that wins with turnover margin in March. The Tide would much prefer the turnover department to be a wash. In 7 losses so far this season, Alabama averages a -4 turnover differential per game. In 21 wins, that differential is +0.6 per game.
The team that comes to mind is Iowa State, who Alabama could plausibly face in the Sweet 16. The Cyclones are 7th nationally in turnover differential per game at +4.1. They’re also an elite 3-point shooting team, hitting over 39% on the season. Iowa State would be a tough matchup for anyone, but especially this Alabama team. Another sneaky-bad matchup that we could see in the first round is High Point, the favorite to win the Big Sky conference. High Point leads the nation in turnover differential at +7 per game so far this season.
Nightmare matchup: Iowa State
Arkansas
The Razorbacks have been soaring of late thanks to unbelievable play by Darius Acuff Jr., who would be a genuine Wooden Award candidate in most seasons with this level of production. As a team, Arkansas is shooting an astounding 58.9% on 2-point tries during conference play. For context, the SEC average on 2-pointers during conference play is just 52.5%. Per CBB Analytics, Arkansas’ success from 2 is mostly coming at the rim where it’s shooting over 74% on the season. A team with elite rim protection would be a big problem for the Hogs in March.
Seton Hall stands out as a possible answer as the Pirates are No. 1 in the nation in block rate and No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage inside of the restricted area. But it doesn’t seem like Seton Hall is going to make the NCAA Tournament, so I’ll go with a team Arkansas has already faced this season: Kentucky. The Wildcats have the No. 2 restricted area defense (54.2% allowed) among P5 teams and have multiple bigs with a high block rate (led by Malachi Moreno at 8%). When these teams played earlier this season, Kentucky registered 6 blocks in an 85-77 win in Fayetteville.
Nightmare matchup: Kentucky
Florida
Florida’s superpower is its size while its biggest vulnerability is its lack of 3-point shooting. With that in mind, I went hunting for a team that could challenge the Gators on the boards while also winning the 3-point battle. I came up with Virginia — a possible second weekend opponent for Florida. The Cavaliers are massive in the front court, starting 3-players who are 6-foot-7 or taller including 7-foot center Johann Grunloh. The biggest bellwether for Florida this season has been rebounding. In 22 wins, the Gators are out-rebounding opponents by an average of 16.5 boards per game. In 6 losses, that edge plummets to +5.2. UF’s lack of 3-point shooting (331st nationally in 3-point percentage) means it has very little margin for error.
Nightmare matchup: Virginia
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Georgia has a really clear weakness: defensive rebounding. The Bulldogs are 345th in that category. Perhaps it’s a scheme issue, but starting center Somto Cyril has been really underwhelming as a defensive rebounder this year and other players aren’t picking up the slack. A team like Saint Mary’s, which is top-15 nationally in rebounding rate on both ends, would almost certainly be able to leverage the glass in a matchup against UGA.
Nightmare matchup: Saint Mary’s
Kentucky
Kentucky’s offense has been really underwhelming for large stretches this season, particularly in conference play. But when the Wildcats are bad, it’s usually because Denzel Aberdeen is having a brutal game. He’s shooting just 35% from the field across 10 losses this year but over 50% in wins. If you’ve got excellent back court defense, you’ve got a great chance to slow down Aberdeen and beat Kentucky. One team that comes to mind is St. John’s, which only really plays 1 player under 6-foot-4 and has the No. 2 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country. Last year, we got Rick Pitino vs. John Calipari in the NCAA Tournament. A matchup between Pitino and Kentucky would be equally compelling for a neutral observer, but probably sub-optimal for UK fans.
Nightmare matchup: St. John’s
Missouri
Missouri does not defend the 3-point line very well — either from an efficiency or volume standpoint. The Tigers enter the weekend ranked 305th nationally in 3-point percentage allowed. They’re also 321st in 3-point attempt rate defense. That leaves Mizzou very vulnerable against offenses that rely on the 3-point shot. NC State is a realistic first-round matchup that Mizzou should want to avoid. The Wolfpack are 9th nationally with a 39% hit rate from long range. They also take a high volume of 3-point shots with an attempt rate that ranks in the top-100 nationally.
Nightmare matchup: NC State
Tennessee
Tennessee has a very simple weakness: 3-point volume. The Vols don’t take many 3-pointers and they allow a ton of them. That will leave them vulnerable against volatile results against high-volume shooting teams in March. A certain type of mid-major could pull off an upset, too, but it would also need to be a team that hunts turnovers on defense. The Vols are dead last in the SEC in offensive turnover rate entering the weekend.
What if it’s an in-state foe that ends up sending the Vols home early? I could see it with Belmont, who is the heavy favorite to win the Missouri Valley autobid. The Bruins lead the nation in 3-point percentage at over 41% and take a high volume of attempts as well (45% 3-point attempt rate). Defensively, Belmont isn’t as strong but it does have a respectable 17% turnover rate. This could easily be a 5/12 matchup that haunts Tennessee.
Nightmare matchup: Belmont
Texas A&M
The Aggies have struggled on the boards a bit in conference play, landing outside of the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. A&M’s rim defense has also faltered lately, as the Aggies conceded 72% at the rim during the month of February (where their record is just 2-5). Saint Louis is a team that would be a big problem for Texas A&M. The Billikens are 21st nationally in defensive rebounding rate and No. 1 in the country in average 2-point distance, suggesting they have no issues with scoring at the rim. Saint Louis might even be favored over A&M in a potential first-round matchup.
Nightmare matchup: Saint Louis
Texas
Texas just isn’t sharp defensively. The Longhorns give up a high percentage from 3-point range, they don’t force turnovers and they send opponents to the charity stripe a lot. That’s a bad combination. Texas does have an elite offense, so it can win against just about anyone on any given day. But a team who is simply solid on both ends of the floor could give Texas a lot of trouble in March. I’ll go with Stephen F Austin as a potential first-round matchup that could give Texas some trouble. SFA is solid on defense, albeit untested against tournament-quality opposition. But the Lumberjacks shoot it well from 3 and have consistently won the possession battle this season. If they win the Southland, they’re certainly live to pull off a first-round upset.
Nightmare matchup: Stephen F Austin
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt fouls a ton. It’s really the only weakness in the Commodores’ profile, but they’re 313th nationally in free throw attempt rate. With that in mind, Texas looks like the toughest possible matchup for Vandy in what would likely be a second-round game. The Longhorns are No. 2 nationally in offensive free throw rate. Players like Dailyn Swain, Matas Vokietaitis and Tramon Mark could all end up with 200+ free throw attempts this season. Texas is also great on the boards while Vandy has been below-average since the start of SEC play.
Nightmare matchup: Texas
Prediction Markets Men's March Madness Final Four Qualifiers Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Michigan 56% Duke 51% Arizona 45% Houston 33% Florida 31% Illinois 28% Iowa St. 25% UConn 24% Purdue 18% Kansas 15% Predict1 nightmare matchup for every top SEC team in 2026 March Madness Saturday Down South.
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