March looms large as the regular season winds down and teams begin to position themselves for deep tournament runs. The championship favorites have begun to emerge, but the path to Indianapolis for the Final Four is never guaranteed. So, as college basketball reaches its most exciting part of the schedule, let’s take a quick look at who the oddsmakers have as favorites and longshots to reach the Final Four in Indy.
2025-26 Final Four Odds
As we approach the heat of late February 2026, the Final Four odds have somewhat settled on a “big three”. Michigan and Duke are currently neck-and-neck as the most likely teams to reach Indianapolis, with Arizona right on their heels. The Wolverines have hovered near the top of the odds board for months, while Duke’s odds have shortened significantly following an impressive upset over Michigan earlier this month.
*Charles LeClaire-Imagn ImagesBeyond the “big three” favorites, there is a notable gap before we reach the value-heavy contenders. Houston and Illinois lead the second group, both possessing the defensive metrics that oddsmakers typically look for in deep tournament runs. Interestingly, the defending champions, Florida, have seen their odds stabilize as they gain momentum. Meanwhile, perennial contenders like UConn (+400) and Kansas (+600) are currently viewed as more volatile options, despite playing some of their best hoops in February.
With conference tournaments just around the corner, 2026 Final Four odds are expected to shift based on final seeding and health. Let’s take a quick look at where we stand right now.
*Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images Michigan -150 Duke -140 Arizona -115 Houston +200 Florida +200 Illinois +220 UConn +300 Iowa State +330 Kansas +550 Purdue +600 Arkansas +850 Michigan State +1200 Gonzaga +1300 Nebraska +1300 Alabama +1400 Virginia +1400 Tennessee +1500 Louisville +1600 Vanderbilt +1700 St. Johns +1700 North Carolina +2000 Wisconsin +2800 Texas Tech +3000 NC State +3000 BYU +3500 Texas A&M +3500 Saint Louis +3500 Kentucky +3500 Iowa +3500 Villanova +5000 Utah State +5000 *Robert Edwards-Imagn Images Miami (FL) +5500 Auburn +6000 SMU +6000 Indiana +6000 Clemson +6500 VCU +7500 UCF +7500 Texas +7500 Saint Mary’s +7500 Georgia +8000 UCLA +8000 Ohio State +8000 Missouri +8000 Washington +10000 Virginia Tech +10000 USC +10000The Responsible Approach to Sports Wagers
Let’s be honest: putting a little skin on the Final Four makes those Saturday double-headers way more intense, but it only stays fun if you aren’t sweating your rent money. The smartest way to approach betting on the tournament is to treat it like a movie ticket or a nice dinner—it’s an entertainment expense, not a reliable way to pay the bills.
Set a “Tournament Budget”: The golden rule is simple: only play with what you can afford to lose. Before the bracket even drops, decide on a set amount of “guilt-free” cash for the month of March. Whether you’re backing a heavy favorite like Michigan or hunting for a Cinderella story, once that budget is gone, the season is over for your wallet. Never dip into funds meant for groceries or savings just to “chase” a loss from an opening-round upset. Do Your Homework: Betting on your alma mater just because you “have a feeling” is a quick way to go broke. If you want to be smart about picking a Final Four contender, look past the jersey. Check the latest injury reports on key players like Cameron Boozer, analyze how teams perform on neutral floors, and look at defensive efficiency ratings. You’ll never have a crystal ball, but moving from gut feelings to data-driven decisions makes the process much more rewarding. Keep Your Cool: At the end of the day, college hoops is unpredictable. If a missed free throw or a last-second buzzer-beater leaves you feeling genuinely angry or anxious, it’s a clear sign to step away. The second the stress of the odds outweighs the excitement of the game, the hobby has become a burden. Staying in control and knowing when to walk away is the only “lock” you truly need.New users must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible Gaming Resources
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