We look ahead to Saturday’s clash with our Leeds vs Manchester city prediction and preview. Can City maintain the pressure on Arsenal in the Premier League title race?
Leeds vs Manchester City: The Key Stats
Manchester City are heavy favourites for this clash, with Guardiola’s side beating Leeds in 56.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations. Leeds United have lost each of their last five Premier League matches against Man City, though they lost only four of the previous 16 (W7 D5). City triumphed in their last two league visits to Elland Road and are looking to win three in a row there for just the second time after doing so between 1924 and 1928.The Premier League title race never really disappoints, does it?
In a season where at times it appeared that the title would be a cakewalk for Arsenal, Manchester City have ensured it remains anything but.
A pair of recent draws for the Gunners against Brentford and Wolves have opened the door for City to challenge for the crown, though Pep Guardiola’s side will need to maintain their consistency if they are to keep the pressure on.
They did exactly that in their 2-1 win over Newcastle United at the weekend, with an unlikely brace from Nico O’Reilly carrying City over the line.
It bodes well for them, then, that they have taken three points from each of their last two away matches at Leeds United, though they have only managed three consecutive away league wins there once before, in their first three trips between 1924 and 1928.
City also have the advantage of playing their match a day before Arsenal face Chelsea in a marquee London derby on Sunday, meaning that a win would only add to the heat on the Gunners.
Guardiola’s side have lost just one of their last 14 Premier League matches played the day before Arsenal (W10 D3) – a 2-1 defeat to Newcastle earlier this season.
Their defensive record against newly promoted sides offers further encouragement. Since 2017-18, City have conceded two or more goals in only three of 52 Premier League matches against promoted sides.
Two of those instances, though, came against Leeds – a 2-1 loss in April 2021 and a 3-2 victory in November 2025, while the third was coincidentally a 3-2 loss to a Norwich City side managed by current Leeds boss Daniel Farke in 2019.
Farke will hope for a similar outcome this time around, with Leeds in the middle of an encouraging run of results.
They began February with a 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest and have since picked up vital draws against top-half sides – 2-2 away to Chelsea and 1-1 at Aston Villa at the weekend.
In fact, since the start of December Leeds have drawn eight matches, more than any other side in the Premier League. However, three of their last four stalemates have finished 1-1 after they took a 1-0 lead but failed to hold on.
Indeed, those defensive lapses have been a recurring problem for the Whites. Since the start of the 2021-22 season, Leeds have managed just seven clean sheets across the 43 Premier League matches in which they opened the scoring.
Their only two such clean sheets this season came after late winners – a 1-0 victory against Everton following an 84th-minute goal and another 1-0 win over Fulham after scoring in the 90th minute. Indeed, Leeds have conceded in each of their last 21 matches when taking a one-goal lead in the first half, a run dating back to a 3-0 victory over Chelsea in 2022.
If defensive resilience has been an existing concern for Farke’s side, the return of Leeds-born Erling Haaland may only add to it.
The Norwegian bagged a brace in his last visit to Elland Road in December 2022, and should he replicate that performance, could become the first visiting player to net two or more goals in consecutive Premier League matches at the ground.
City will hope Jérémy Doku has recovered from a calf injury, though Josko Gvardiol and Mateo Kovacic remain long-term absentees.
Farke, meanwhile, should have a fully fit squad at his disposal save for Noah Okafor, who is ruled out with a hamstring injury.
Leeds vs Manchester City Head-to-Head
Man City come into Saturday’s contest with an overwhelmingly strong record, with Leeds having lost each of their last five Premier League games against Guardiola’s side dating back to December 2021. This comes after they lost only four of their first 16 matches against City (W7 D5).
City have outscored Leeds 19-4 in that span, though the reverse fixture back in November will certainly give Guardiola something to think about, with City needing a 91st-minute goal from Phil Foden to secure a 3-2 victory at the Etihad Stadium.
Leeds vs Manchester City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to see past a Man City win, with Guardiola’s side taking all three points in 56.6% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Leeds are given just a 21.6% chance of victory, with the draw accounting for the rest of the scenarios (21.8%).
Leeds vs Manchester City Predicted Lineups
Leeds United: Karl Darlow, Jayden Bogle, James Justin, Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijk, Sam Byram, Anton Stach, Ethan Ampadu, Ilia Gruev, Brenden Aaronson, Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Head coach: Daniel Farke
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Rúben Dias, Marc Guéhi, Rayan Aït-Nouri, Rodri, Antoine Semenyo, Bernardo Silva, Nico O’Reilly, Erling Haaland, Omar Marmoush.
Head coach: Pep Guardiola
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend at Elland Road, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Leeds vs Manchester City Prediction: Guardiola’s Side Look to Keep the Pressure on Arsenal as Title Race Heats Up Opta Analyst.
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