Only Wolves have scored fewer goals than Nottingham Forest in the Premier League this season. Are their struggles entirely down to missing their star striker?
What is a forest without wood? Ineffective in front of goal, it seems.
Fine, that might not be the best riddle you’ve ever been posed, but we’re about to prove it is at least an accurate statement.
Last season, Nottingham Forest surprised everyone with a genuine challenge for UEFA Champions League qualification.
Their eventual finish of seventh in the Premier League ended up being a bit underwhelming considering how high they had been for much of the 2024-25 campaign, but was still a fantastic achievement given they had started the season as one of the favourites for relegation.
This season, things have not been as bright. Forest are on a record fourth different manager of 2025-26, and after Sunday’s agonising late home defeat to Liverpool, are just two points outside of the relegation zone.
Something that often leads to a dramatic fall after a club overachieves is that their best players are picked off by the bigger boys, but that didn’t really happen with Forest, aside from Anthony Elanga’s move to Newcastle United. Morgan Gibbs-White almost joined Tottenham, but ultimately stayed and signed a new deal at the City Ground.
One player who was a massive part of their success in 2024-25 who hasn’t been around much this season, though, is Chris Wood. The gigantic New Zealander scored 20 goals in 36 Premier League games last term, at least 13 more than any other Forest player.
However, Wood suffered a knee injury in October that required surgery, and he has been absent ever since. The 34-year-old only managed to play eight league games before the problem arose, scoring twice.
It is perhaps the biggest indication of the issues Forest have that we are now in late February, and only two players have scored more league goals this season for the club than Wood (Gibbs-White – 6, Callum Hudson-Odoi – 3).
Their problems in front of goal have been especially apparent in their last two league games. Across their 0-0 draw with Wolves and their 1-0 defeat to Liverpool, Forest had 53 shots without finding the net.
Their total of 35 shots against bottom-placed Wolves was the most by a team without scoring in a Premier League match since Manchester United had 38 in a 0-0 draw with Burnley in October 2016.
It was also their most in a Premier League match since the 2022-23 campaign, while it was the most ever by a Sean Dyche team in his 351st game. It proved to be Dyche’s last game in charge at the City Ground, replaced, somewhat ironically, by former Wolves boss Vítor Pereira.
Despite the change in the dugout, it was a similar story against Liverpool. Nottingham Forest’s 12 first-half shots was the most any side have managed in the opening 45 minutes of a Premier League game against Liverpool since Stoke City in May 2015 (also 12), but they failed to score once again (Stoke were 5-0 up at half-time that day). They ultimately had 18 attempts without success in the game, made all the more frustrating when their opponents nicked a win deep into stoppage time.
What is arguably most curious about their wayward finishing is that Forest have been comparatively ruthless in Europe. In between the games against Wolves and Liverpool, they travelled to Fenerbahçe in the knockout play-off round of the UEFA Europa League, winning 3-0 in an outstanding first-leg showing in Istanbul.
Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahçe Prediction
Europa LeagueNottingham Forest vs Fenerbahçe Prediction: Can Premier League Strugglers Seal Europa League Progress?
2 hours ago Patric RidgeThat followed on from a pretty strong league phase, even though they missed out on the top eight. Forest have scored 18 goals in the Europa League this season in just nine games – only Stuttgart (19) have more.
Rewinding back to the start of the season, and it appeared as though Forest were continuing where they left off in 2024-25 as they scored three times in a convincing win over Brentford on the opening weekend. However, they only managed another two goals across their next eight league games.
After 27 games in the Premier League this season, Forest have scored just 25 goals; only Wolves have scored fewer (18).
Last season, Forest only failed to score in eight of their 38 league games. This season they have already failed to score in 13 of their 27 outings. Again, only Wolves (15) have failed to score more often.
Of particular concern has been their home form. Only Burnley (12) have scored fewer home goals in the Premier League this season than Forest (13), who have drawn a blank eight times at the City Ground in 2025-26, more than any other side at home in the top flight. They’ve only scored once in their last five home league games.
The most striking thing (no pun intended) is how much this all contrasts to last season, when Forest were largely exceptional in front of goal. They overperformed significantly against their expected goals (xG) in the Premier League, scoring 58 times from just 46.5 xG, with their overperformance of 11.5 the largest in the division.
This season, however, they’re underperforming against their xG by 6.7, with 25 goals from 31.7 xG, the third-largest underperformance in the Premier League.
Their xG per league game is currently 1.18, with an average of 13 shots per game. Last season, it was 1.22 xG per game and 12.2 shots per game. So, their average is barely any different compared to last season, while the number of shots they’ve taken has dipped, but only slightly. The chances are there. But the lack of goals suggests the quality of finishing is the main issue for them.
Forest have the second-worst shot conversion rate in the Premier League this season (7.1%) behind only Wolves (6.9%). Last season, they had the joint-sixth best, funnily enough, along with Wolves (12.5%).
Could it therefore be as simple as Wood being unavailable? His 20 Premier League goals last season came with an outstanding shot conversion rate of 29.4%, comfortably the best of any player in the Premier League who scored more than two goals.
By comparison, of every Forest player to have attempted at least 20 shots in the Premier League this season, no one has a better conversion rate than 11.1% (Hudson-Odoi).
Igor Jesus was signed from Botafogo last summer and was supposed to provide Wood with some scoring assistance. The Brazilian striker has shone in Europe, with an impressive seven goals in seven Europa League games – an average of one every 54.7 minutes – and is the joint-top scorer in the competition alongside Ludogorets’ Petar Stanic.
However, he has just two goals in 26 Premier League appearances – an average of one every 757.5 mins.
It’s not that he hasn’t been getting chances either; Jesus has had 48 shots in the league, but has a conversion rate of just 4.2%.
He has been getting much better chances in the Europa League, though, where his conversion rate is a mighty 35%. He’s averaging 0.09 xG per shot in the Premier League, compared to 0.25 per shot in Europe. Albeit it includes a penalty, but Jesus has a higher xG from his 20 shots in seven Europa League games (4.9) than he does from his 48 shots in 26 Premier League games (4.3).
Whether it’s his teammates being more creative or European opponents simply being more open, Jesus is definitely enjoying that competition more than the English top flight right now.
On-loan striker Lorenzo Lucca has a 33.3% conversion rate in the Premier League, but that’s from one goal from just three shots, far too small of a sample size to make any judgment yet – he scored just once from 15 shots (6.7%) for Napoli in Serie A before moving to the City Ground in January.
It’s not the most insightful observation in the world to say that Forest need to finish their chances better, but they can at least take some solace in the fact they are creating chances. Our old friend variance may well see things improve over the next few weeks, which would come in very handy in a relegation battle.
The next two games for Pereira’s team are both on the road at Brighton and Man City, tough fixtures undoubtedly, but also two opponents who arguably play more like the average European side than the average Premier League one, which could be somewhat helpful for Forest.
There is no word on when Wood will be back, so others will need to step up. They’ve shown they can do it in Europe, so maybe just play the Europa League theme when the players come out and try to trick them into finishing well.
Whatever the plan, Nottingham Forest need to get back to scoring goals, and quickly.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Nottingham Forest’s Drop-Off in Front of Goal Shows How Much They’re Missing Chris Wood Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about nottingham forest s drop off in front of goal shows how much they re missing chris wood was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Nottingham Forest’s Drop-Off in Front of Goal Shows How Much They’re Missing Chris Wood )
Also on site :