Look ahead to Thursday’s UEFA Europa League play-off second leg with our Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahçe prediction and preview. Can Vítor Pereira claim his first home win?
Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahçe: The Key Stats
Nottingham Forest lead 3-0 from the first leg, and the Opta supercomputer hands them a 58.5% chance of victory here against Fenerbahçe. Fenerbahçe have won just one of 10 away European matches (including qualifiers) in England (D2 L7). The Turkish giants have failed to progress from all 26 ties in any competition when losing the first leg of a knockout round clash.Vítor Pereira could hardly have asked for a better start as Nottingham Forest head coach.
Last week, he saw his new team run out 3-0 victors over one of his former clubs, Fenerbahçe, as Murillo, Igor Jesus and Morgan Gibbs-White ensured an emphatic victory in Istanbul, as Forest took a huge stride towards reaching the last 16 of the UEFA Europa League.
Forest could not make it two wins from two under Pereira in his first Premier League game in charge, though, as they went down 1-0 in agonising fashion to Liverpool on Sunday.
Alexis Mac Allister, just minutes after seeing a goal disallowed for handball, slammed home deep in second-half stoppage time to condemn Forest to a defeat that leaves them hovering only two points above the bottom three.
But with a healthy lead, Thursday’s second leg against Fener at least provides a chance for Forest to put their Premier League woes to one side and get some confidence back at the City Ground.
The first leg marked Forest’s biggest away win in major European competition. It was also their first win in the knockout rounds of any European competition since defeating Lyon 1-0 in the first leg of their UEFA Cup round-of-16 tie in November 1995.
Fener, meanwhile, suffered their joint-biggest home Europa League defeat, after also losing 3-0 to Borussia Mönchengladbach in December 2012 and Olympiakos in September 2021.
But it was a show of dominance from Forest, who limited Fener to just two shots in the first half, their joint-fewest in any home Europa League match (also two vs Eintracht Frankfurt in December 2021 and Athletic Club in December 2024).
Fener finished with only six attempts, while Forest posted 23, with those shots combining for 2.74 expected goals (xG).
If they are to turn this tie around, then Fener will need to make history.
Across their major European competition history, Fenerbahçe have failed to progress from all 26 ties in any competition when losing the first leg of a knockout clash.
Forest, meanwhile, could win three consecutive major European fixtures for the first time since the 1983-84 UEFA Cup.
And the gulf in the level of performance, generally, between Forest’s Premier League and Europa League campaigns has been stark.
Forest have kept a clean sheet in their last three home Europa League games, while they have a 65% home clean sheet ratio in major European football (17 in 26 games). Among teams to play 20+ home games, only Sampdoria (67%) and Ipswich Town (67%) have a higher percentage.
They have scored 18 goals in the Europa League this term – only during their victorious 1978-79 European Cup campaign have they netted more goals during a season in major European competition (19).
And though he has struggled to hit his stride in the Premier League, Jesus has excelled in this competition.
He is the joint-leading scorer in the Europa League this season, level on seven goals with Petar Stanic.
Jesus is averaging a goal every 54 minutes. In the Premier League, he has netted just twice, at a rate of one goal every 757 minutes, while underperforming his 4.31 xG. In contrast, Jesus’ Europa League haul has come from chances worth 4.9 xG, showing just how clinical he has been in front of goal.
Jesus is also Forest’s outright leading scorer in a single European campaign, with the Brazilian having overtaken Gary Birtles’ six during the 1978-79 European Cup.
But with such a big lead, Pereira may well look to rotate his squad ahead of a crunch Premier League clash with Brighton & Hove Albion. With the way fixtures have fallen, Forest could find themselves in the bottom three by the time they play on Sunday, though that would require West Ham to beat Liverpool at Anfield, which seems unlikely.
Lorenzo Lucca could well get a chance to start up top, while James McAtee and Dilane Bakwa will hope to get the opportunity to show their new boss what they can do, having hardly been used by Sean Dyche.
Like Jesus, Gibbs-White scored and assisted last week, taking his tally of Europa League goal involvements to five, but it would not be surprising if Pereira aims to protect his key creator.
That being said, Forest are not in a position to give up on building some momentum, especially at home, and this is an ideal opportunity.
Fenerbahçe played out a 1-1 draw with Kasımpaşa on the domestic front on Monday, missing the opportunity to draw level with Galatasaray at the top of the Süper Lig. They are still unbeaten in 23 league matches this season, but eight draws mean Domenico Tedesco’s team trail their Istanbul rivals by two points in the title race.
Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahçe Head-to-Head
Thursday’s contest marks just the second competitive meeting between these teams.
Fener have now lost seven of their last 10 games against English teams, winning just one of those.
They have also won just one of 10 away European matches (including qualifiers) in England (D2 L7), winning 1-0 at Manchester United in October 1996 in the UEFA Champions League.
Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahçe Prediction
While the Opta supercomputer found the first leg too close to call, it is getting behind Forest to win this match.
They are handed a 58.2% win probability, with Fener’s chances coming in at just 20.0%. The likelihood of a draw is 21.8%.
The chances of Tedesco’s team overhauling a 3-0 deficit to reach the round of 16, though, are rated at a mere 1.2%, with Forest assigned a 98.8% chance of progressing from the tie.
Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahçe Predicted Lineups
Nottingham Forest: Stefan Ortega, Ola Aina, Nikola Milenkovic, Murillo, Neco Williams, Ibrahim Sangaré, Elliot Anderson, Omari Hutchinson, Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Igor Jesus.
Head coach: Vítor Pereira
Fenerbahçe: Ederson, Nélson Semedo, Milan Skriniar, Jayden Oosterwolde, Mert Müldür, Mattéo Guendouzi, N’Golo Kanté, Ismail Yüksek, Marco Asensio, Kerem Aktürkoglu, Talisca.
Head coach: Domenico Tedesco
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to nearly 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahçe Prediction: Can Premier League Strugglers Seal Europa League Progress? Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about nottingham forest vs fenerbahce prediction can premier league strugglers seal europa league progress was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahçe Prediction: Can Premier League Strugglers Seal Europa League Progress? )
Also on site :