Hitting 40 homers in a single season puts a player in rare company. It happens maybe a handful of times each year, and predicting who gets there requires looking at power trends, ballpark factors, lineup protection, and health history.
DraftKings has posted odds for which players will reach that milestone in 2026, and the list covers a wide range of profiles. Some names are proven power hitters. Others are emerging threats. A few are long shots worth a look at the right price.
Here is a breakdown of where the value might be.
The Favorites: Schwarber and Raleigh Lead the Way
Kyle Schwarber is the favorite at -170, and it is easy to see why. He has hit 46, 47, and 38 home runs over the past three seasons. Citizen’s Bank Park plays well for left-handed power, and Schwarber has shown he can sustain elite home run rates even when his batting average is modest. The question is whether he stays healthy for a full season.
Cal Raleigh comes in at -145 and has become one of the best power-hitting catchers in baseball. He set the single-season home run record for catchers in 2024 with 41 and backed it up with another strong year. T-Mobile Park has a reputation as a pitcher-friendly venue, but Raleigh has made it work. His odds reflect the fact that bettors see him as a near lock.
Both of these players are priced as likely to hit 40 homers rather than possible. If you want to bet a favorite, the implied probability on Raleigh at -145 suggests around a 59 percent chance, while Schwarber at -170 sits closer to 63 percent.
Sep 14, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) hits a home run against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn ImagesThe Near-Even Money Names Worth Watching
A group of players sits right around even money, and this is where some of the more interesting bets live.
Nick Kurtz comes in at +105. He is a young first baseman with Oakland who showed serious raw power in the minors and made his MLB debut in 2025. The projection here is aggressive, but the upside is real if he takes a step forward in his development.
Pete Alonso at +110 is a name that needs no introduction. He has hit 40 or more home runs three times in his career, including a 53-homer season in 2019. Alonso consistently ranks among the league leaders in hard contact and barrel rate. At plus money, this is one of the more straightforward value plays on the board.
Junior Caminero at +110 is another projection on a younger player. He has displayed big-time power potential and could be stepping into a full-time role. The risk is playing time and consistency, but the ceiling is clearly there.
Juan Soto at +110 might surprise some people given that he is not typically labeled a home run hitter first. But Soto has the plate discipline and power to reach 40 if things click in his new environment with the Mets. The odds feel generous for someone of his caliber.
Aug 25, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets right fielder Juan Soto (22) hits a single against the Philadelphia Phillies during the fourth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn ImagesMid-Range Odds and Players Who Could Surprise You
The +400 to +600 range includes names like Yordan Alvarez, Ketel Marte, Rafael Devers, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., and Bobby Witt Jr. These are elite players, but each carries some uncertainty.
Alvarez has the raw power to hit 40 easily but has dealt with injuries in recent years. Tatis is a fascinating pick at +450 given his athleticism and power profile, assuming he stays on the field. Acuna is coming off a torn ACL and there are questions about where his game is heading.
Ketel Marte at +425 might be the most underrated name on the list. He has been one of the most consistent hitters in the league for several years and quietly has 30-plus homer potential in the right conditions.
A few longer shots worth considering include Gunnar Henderson at +650 and Elly De La Cruz at +900. Henderson is one of the best young players in baseball, and if he puts together a full season with the Orioles, 40 homers is within reach. De La Cruz has enormous raw power and speed, and the question is whether the contact and approach catches up to his physical gifts.
Long Shots With Upside
Further down the list you will find names like Giancarlo Stanton at +700, Corey Seager at +700, and Byron Buxton at +600. The common thread here is injury history. All three have the raw power to hit 40 or more, but none has put together consistent full seasons in recent years.
Stanton in particular is fascinating. When healthy, he might be the most physically imposing power hitter in the game. Yankee Stadium is one of the best parks in the league for right-handed power. If he plays 140-plus games, this bet looks smart in hindsight.
Some truly speculative names include Colson Montgomery, Tyler Soderstrom, and Kyle Stowers. These are players who are either unproven at the major league level or coming off limited opportunities. The odds reflect that, but the upside exists if they break out.
How to Think About These Homer Bets
When betting player props like this, a few factors should guide your decisions.
Ballpark matters. A power hitter in a hitter-friendly park like Yankee Stadium or Great American Ball Park has a built-in advantage. Health history is the single biggest risk factor. Multiple names on this list have missed significant time in recent seasons. Plate appearances drive home run totals. A player needs to be in the lineup consistently to reach 40. Lineup protection affects pitch selection. Hitters surrounded by other threats see more pitches to hit.Look at the implied probability on each bet and compare it to your own assessment of the player’s realistic ceiling and floor. The favorites are priced to reflect expectation. The value, if any, tends to live in the mid-range odds where the market may be underestimating a player’s breakout potential.
Responsible Gambling and Bankroll Management
Betting on season-long player props can be a fun way to stay engaged throughout the year, but it requires discipline. Here are a few principles to keep in mind.
Only wager what you can afford to lose. Season-long props are high variance, and even the best research does not guarantee results. Avoid placing too large a portion of your bankroll on a single prop. Spreading smaller amounts across a few plays reduces risk. Track your bets. Keeping a record of what you bet, why, and what the result was helps you evaluate your decision-making over time. Do not chase losses. If a bet does not go your way early in the season, resist the urge to place larger bets to compensate. Set a budget for sports betting separate from your regular finances and stick to it.If you feel that gambling is becoming a problem, resources are available through the National Council on Problem Gambling at ncpgambling.org or by calling 1-800-522-4700. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible Gaming Resources
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