Real Madrid are considered the clear favourites by the Opta supercomputer when they host Benfica on Wednesday. Look ahead to the UEFA Champions League game at the Santiago Bernabeu with our prediction and preview.
Real Madrid vs Benfica: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer rates Real Madrid as the overwhelming favourites with a win probability of 61% to Benfica’s 19.1%. Kylian Mbappé has been involved in 14 goals in the Champions League this season. José Mourinho is winless in his last nine Champions League knockout games.Real Madrid will be looking to finish the job they started in the first leg of their controversy-packed Champions League play-off tie with Benfica.
Los Blancos won 1-0 at Estadio da Luz last week, with Vinícius Júnior’s 50th-minute goal enough to earn victory for Álvaro Arbeloa’s men.
However, in the aftermath of that goal, Benfica’s Gianluca Prestianni was accused of making racial slurs towards Vinícius, claims the Argentine winger has denied.
UEFA insist an investigation into the incident remains ongoing, but announced on Monday that Prestiannini will be provisionally suspended for the second leg at the Santiago Bernabéu.
Madrid will be heavily fancied to get the job done on home turf on Wednesday, though they come into this game on the back of a dispiriting 2-1 defeat at Osasuna that saw them concede top spot back to Barcelona in La Liga, after Los Culés defeated Levante 3-0 on Sunday.
The record 15-time European champions have progressed from 22 of their last 23 knockout ties when they have won the first leg, the exception coming against Ajax in the last 16 in the 2018-19 edition (a 2-1 win in the first leg, a 4-1 defeat in the second).
Madrid, though, have only won both legs in one of their last seven Champions League knockout ties, though that did come against Manchester City in last season’s play-off round.
None of Madrid’s last 25 Champions League matches have been drawn (W16 L9), while none of Benfica’s last 11 have finished all square either (W3 L8). Only Liverpool (29) and Marseille (32) are on longer runs without a draw than Los Blancos’ stretch of 25.
Kylian Mbappé has been influential for Madrid in this season’s competition, having been involved in 14 goals (13 goals, 1 assist). That is the most by a Madrid player in a season since Karim Benzema in 2021-22 (15 goals, 2 assists).
Mbappé now has 25 assists in the competition overall, level with Thierry Henry and behind only Benzema (27) and Zinedine Zidane (26) among French players.
His Madrid teammate Arda Güler turns 21 on the day of this game. He has created 25 chances in the Champions League this season, the most by any player before the age of 21 in a season Opta has on record since 2003-04. While aged 21 or younger, the most in that time is 31 by Vinícius in 2021-22 (31).
Benfica face a daunting task to turn this tie around, with Madrid having kept 115 clean sheets in the Champions League, the joint-most of any side (since 1992-93) along with Bayern Munich. Thibaut Courtois kept his 33rd in the competition in the first leg, levelling Oliver Kahn for the joint-ninth most in Champions League history. His next clean sheet will put him level with former Milan goalkeeper Dida on 34.
However, you only have to go back to 28 January for Benfica’s last miracle against Madrid, when goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin memorably scored in the 98th minute to secure a 4-2 win, a goal that saw them dramatically scrape into the play-offs ahead of Marseille.
Benfica coach José Mourinho spent three years with Madrid between 2010 and 2013, winning La Liga, the Copa del Rey, and the Supercopa de España in that time. His team sit third in Portugal’s top flight despite not losing a game in the top flight this season.
Mourinho – who will be in the stands for this game after being sent off in the first leg – won Champions League titles with Porto and Inter, but is winless in his last nine Champions League knockout games (D4 L5) – losing the last four in a row. It is the longest run without a win by any manager in knockout matches in Champions League history.
Additionally, Benfica have progressed through just one of their eight previous knockout ties in major European competition when losing the first leg at home – they lost 1-0 to Dinamo Bucuresti in the 1999-00 UEFA Cup first round, before winning 2-0 away to advance.
Madrid will be without long-term absentees Jude Bellingham and Éder Militão for this clash, while Dean Huijsen remains a doubt with a calf injury. Joao Veloso is still absent for Benfica.
Real Madrid vs Benfica Head-to-Head
Real Madrid and Benfica are facing off for the third consecutive game in the Champions League. That marks the first time in the history of the Champions League that two teams will meet in three straight matches in the same season.
This clash also represents the sixth meeting between Los Blancos and Benfica in the European Cup/Champions League.
Madrid may have won the first leg of this tie, but Benfica are one of two sides they have faced five-plus times in the competition and lost more games (3) than they have won (2), along with Milan (P16 W6 D3 L7).
Real Madrid vs Benfica Prediction
Despite Benfica owning the superior head-to-head record, the Opta supercomputer still makes Real Madrid the overwhelming favourites, with their chances of victory in the second leg standing at 61%.
Benfica, meanwhile, have a win probability on the night of just 19.1%, with the draw rated as a 19.9% chance, though that outcome would still take Madrid through on aggregate.
Madrid’s likelihood of making the last 16 is a hefty 86.7%, whereas Benfica’s chances of turning the tie around and making it through to the last 16 stand at just 13.3%.
Real Madrid vs Benfica Predicted Lineups
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Raúl Asencio, Antonio Rüdiger, Álvaro Carreras, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Güler, Federico Valverde, Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé.
Head Coach: Álvaro Arbeloa
Benfica: Anatoliy Trubin, Amar Dedic, Tomás Araújo, Nicolás Otamendi, Samuel Dahl, Leandro Barreiro, Enzo Barrenechea, Rafa, Andreas Schjelderup, Fredrik Aursnes, Vangelis Pavlidis.
Head Coach: José Mourinho
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Real Madrid vs Benfica Prediction: Will Madrid Secure Place in Last 16 of Champions League Against Mourinho? Opta Analyst.
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